Well that makes three postings about the Barrons article, so I'll pick a thread ... geez.
I disagree that he said investors "may fail to appreciate". His point was that airlines would have to provide guidance that would convince investors that the prasm situation was not going to continue to be a negative. Otherwise, the stocks may be range bound with a lack of interest. But with proper guidance, they should get there mojo back. I may start to lose interest in airline stocks if airlines can't show their discipline, though I appreciate how good it could have been.
The airlines need to show a path to expanding margins. I wouldn't care if it was lower fuel, or capacity cuts to control prasm ... as long as the airlines make their margin/profit goals.
Unlike the Fed, the ECB doesn't have the authority to do a QE, ala the Fed and Japan. I've mentioned this numerous times during the last year, and I can't believe that the financial world is surprised by this. It has to be something else, or just an excuse to do whatever.
That said, the ECB can do some things, but it is going slowly for whatever reason.
Still have a goal of $11 based on the inverted H&S. Actually, have another that could form and take RF to $12. I'll look at that after $11.
Long term rates should tweak up over time ... nothing drastic ... All good.
Wharton ... hope you reversed your call on gold.
It's good to see something positive. It also looks like the left themselves room for further positive comments.
Read an article about a month ago, that talked about the options the Saudis had with oil output. At the time they reduce output by 600,000 bbls, but that was going to be offset by the extra 800,000 they use for air conditioning during the summer. Well, the thought was that the Saudis may want to "test" the point at which the new fracking calls uncle, which the article said could be dangerous for them. If they cut production that would just encourage further production outside of OPEC. Anyway, they were in a difficult position.
In the meanwhile, this drop in oil is good for airlines ... and the consumer, but no one cares so far.
A terrorist event would be tragic. And not to mitigate the tragic nature if something like that happened, this is not pre-9/11. I feel that people have worked that into their feelings about airlines as they have crashes, and the odds of it happening on any given flight is probably less than crashes. But no doubt there would be a knee jerk reaction to the stocks.
If things economically stabilize at these levels (fares, fuel, business, etc), AAL should make $6 billion and add in depreciation for a quick cash flow. They are buying airplanes, so have cap-ex ... the possible cash flow is astonishing and will help the bump in cap-ex with a chunk leftover.
They always said the two nurses (and others) provided that care when Duncan was extremely contagious. The problem, surprise, what have you, was that they were supposedly protected. Apparently, the hospital and CDC has to deal with that problem. However, I just heard someone say on Bloomberg that they may have also dealt him early on when he came in the second time and before all precautions were taken. So, who knows at this point. This is still all evolving with a contained group. Hope it stays that way.
Putin announced the withdrawal of the Russian troops near the Ukraine border that were there over the summer ... about 17,600 troops. He's got a meeting later this week with Ukraine. Who knows, maybe this will start going in the right direction and to a degree that sanctions can be removed.
Macedonia death of the Briton that was treated as a possible ebola case was probably due to alcohol. Test results will be back Saturday.
Out of the 40,000 that have traveled to the US since March from the Ebola stricken countries, only one was infected. I would think with closer scrutiny and more information given to travelers from West Africa this will be contained even if not stopped at departure and becoming contagious after arrival. Right now there is a good chance West Africa can improve greatly before another traveler comes here infected ... at least that is what the 1/40000 indicates.
raysouth ... I don't know if this is the bottom for sure (that $28 old gap may have been support), but if yesterday was the bottom, you called it by pointing out that the "made up short hype" reach the as far as it could go in the given situation ... as you said, they essentially were calling for the end of mankind in 6 months
I read your post yesterday, and had to smile at what you said..
Most of the people that would develop a fever after leaving Western Africa would probably have malaria or something else. And most probably (and I understand probably, you should too) the virus isn't present in saliva and sweat at an infectious level until after day 4.
Unless people lie to authorities leaving Africa, and try to deliberately beat the system, then the odds are low and getting less and less that a person infected with ebola will get on the airplane. If people indicate they have been in contact with anyone with ebola ... aren't they refused travel at departure? Tested or quarantined until travel is determined to be safe? It's not a perfect system, but they are working on it.
Dallas is still a contained situation, tragic, but contained. Healthcare workers dealing with ebola patients are at risk. The second case in Dallas was not completely unexpected.