This is essentially a very unusual BK ... I bet your broker, or who ever you talked to, doesn't have the specifics of the deal in front of him. AAL has the info on what you had and will, in time (distribution periods), grant you your shares depending on the price of AAL, and terms of the merger agreement.
Meanwhile you can wait or try to talk to someone else at the broker, or have them look into it.
FAQ from Investor Relations AAL ... I'd look at the S-4 and BK docs referenced as well ..
"The U.S. federal income tax consequences of the merger to holders of US Airways stock are disclosed in the Form S-4 filed by AMR Corporation with the SEC in connection with the merger, and the U.S. federal income tax consequences of the confirmed chapter 11 plan to holders of AMR Corporation stock are disclosed in the Disclosure Statement dated June 5, 2013. To briefly summarize the disclosures therein, holders of US Airways stock or AMR Corporation stock generally will not recognize gain or loss for U.S. federal income tax purposes as a result of the exchange of such stock for American Airlines Group stock in the merger or pursuant to the chapter 11 plan, respectively, although holders of AMR Corporation stock may have imputed interest income with respect to American Airlines Group stock received after the effective date of the chapter 11 plan. All holders are urged to consult their tax advisors."
I don't think it is too material, but that was based on a 30 August merger. If the merger is delayed for any significant length of time, the unsecured creditors would continue to accrue interest which would come out of the AAMRQ holders' market cap. Like I said though, I don't think it is too material .... but I would work it out. And the whole deal depends on LCC's volatility at the conversion date(s).
Although I think the merger will happen, but as (I believe iahphx said) that with court rulings, you never know. And regardless, LCC is doing quite well as a standalone (it's undervalued either way). But I wonder, if it doesn't go through, would there be other overtures, to and by who, and how soon would they happen.
Gee whiz, he missed out on 7-8 bagger+ by just getting on board ... which could be concerning ... he doesn't shine shoes on weekends, does he?
Just kidding ... The story is still intact. If a merged LCC/AMR makes 10% pre-tax, their cash flow (ex-depreciation) will be north of $5/share, and it should last for awhile using their $20 billion in NOLs. (Depending on how they classify their NOLs they may even be able to report pre-tax eps.)
There are optional conversions (it's has limits) that can be done in between the mandatory conversion dates (30, 60, ... 120). Isn't that right?
I don't know too much about the financing surrounding the Kashagan and its production, but I did some reading on the deep water drilling in the gulf tertiary. It essentially said that it was just starting prior to the BP incident and really not too successful. Although the article did say they knew the oil was there, and for that matter oil would be in similar places throughout the globe. And with the first number of wells put in, though not as successful as they would have liked, they learned an enormous amount that could be applied throughout the world and future wells in the gulf.
It is in the guidance from today. It is near (at) the beginning where things are written out ... under the heading of "General Comments". Essentially 10% of pretax profit (and when margins exceeds 10% the profit sharing rate is 15% (but, I believe, it has to exceed 10% margin for the whole year for the 15% to kick in.)
The way I figured revenue does have an assumption in it. Monthly reports only give the prasm increase on mainline. I did assume the same increase for express and applied the 5.33% increase to the consolidated prasm of 13.63 cents given in last year's 10Q for Q3. Not exactly, the way I would like to do it, but given the info available, some assumptions have to be made.
Off hand I would guess a slightly smaller impact post merger, since there is less revenue (cost) per share, but haven't looked at it yet. Decreasing fuel nevertheless is always good for airlines in that it will make it easier to meet their margin goals. And I think the airlines are going to do it.
It's about 743 million shares (LCC's 208 million divided by 28%) ... isn't it? And I think LCC is now trading as if it is AAG. The problem is that the market is trying to get its hands around the value of AAG ... it will work out. Options week now also.
AAG could very well receive a market recognition of pre-tax eps ... cashflow/share is rather important ... it does have the $20 billion in NOLs ... probably 3 times the amount DAL has left.
Parker said that in 2014 AMR will be accretive to LCC's 2013 eps ... granted LCC's estimates at the time he said that was estimated to be slightly lower than now, but only slightly.
In 2015 the synergies kick in.
Apparently, they thought their $21 price target was about to be run over and they wanted to get out in front of it. I think they may have to raise their $24 target before long.
"Seems like no one knows #$%$ in these forums. You guys are morons."
Are you thinking about investing in some LCC options, or have you already invested in LCC options without knowing the answer to your question?
I mentioned in the previous post, that Horton mentioned in the video, that given the low market cap assigned to the combined airline during merger negotiations, AMR needed a higher percentage to make sure the unsecured creditors and labor were covered. But analysts had to stretch their rationale to get it to fit. LCC shareholders were to get the short end of the stick if the deal was to be done. But now that market caps have increased throughout the industry (and for the merger), a renegotiation could be also good for AMR unsecured creditors and AMR labor (besides LCC shareholders) as they would be holding less diluted shares going forward. Sure it will come out of AAMRQ shareholders' portion but they "normally" would have gotten nothing anyway ... they can still get something ... but why the moon? I think LCC, AMR unsecured creditors and AMR labor ought to chew on this.
The industry is behaving rationally, and I can't see either AMR or LCC going out of business if the merger doesn't go through (Though I don't know what the new BK structure the "new and separate" AMR would look like). The DOJ talks about the "current" industry. I think they ought to consider the global outlook and whether it would be in the US's interest to have three strong carriers in the three world alliances. What will the global industry look like over the future years ... I think the DOJ would be myoptic if they just considered the domestic situation (and I don't think they are looking at the domestic situation correctly either). The DOJ focus on fares and capacity can be explained because of fuel prices and "current" economic conditions ... not any past competitive changes due to past mergers.
I think the market has it wrong ... LCC is undervalued either way. And for that matter all airlines are still undervalued ... LCC by the most. LCC is going to make over 900 million this year pre-tax and (900 million in 2014 and 1.1 billion in 2015 if you believe the SEC filings as a standalone). Though HA and UAL (if UAL ever gets their act together) are close to LCC in being undervalued. And regards your comment about DAL and "no merger". That is the thing that is surprising about UAL. If DAL will benefit from "no merger" ... UAL should also in the same way.
Cute ... tootsie rolls
Here are AAG's estimated pre-tax income for the next few years. The market will come to grips with it.
2014 $3.816 billion
2015 $4.375 billion
2016 $4.234 billion
2017 $4.138 billion