We spoke to GSAT management this morning to get an update on the NPRM process and recent events:
- As the recent ex parte filings show, GSAT has been busy over the past month meeting several times with the staff of each Commissioners and the Chairman’s offices as well as the International and OET Bureaus
- The IB and OET are currently working on their final recommendations on the NPRM so that the Chairman can draft a final Order for a vote
- Although the opposition parties continue to push for additional interference testing, so far the IB and OET have shown no signs that they plan to ask for more testing, and they have had ample time to make such a request – the calls for additional testing have been going on since at least the beginning of 2015/late 2014
- We do NOT think GSAT is working on a “Plan B NPRM request” where they exclude the unlicensed/shared ISM band in the TLPS plan. A few analysts and blogs have speculated that GSAT is pursuing this scaled down Plan B, but we disagree
- At this point the August Open Meeting is off the table, the earliest Open meeting would be Sept. Alternatively it could go into circulation at some point starting in September
- In our view, the FCC is running out of big ticket/high profile items that take priority over the GSAT TLPS NPRM. The DTV/T deal has just closed, the new DE rules for spectrum auctions have been put in place, the final DISH DE ruling will be made probably within days, and the final Incentive Auction rules should be put in place in August. So in our view, there is a window for the FCC to focus on the GSAT NPRM and put it to a vote in the next few months.
We continue to think the NPRM is still at the Bureau level but soon will get to the 8th floor and the commissioners in the late summer/early fall - and eventually gets approved. We recommend buying the stock at these levels and have a $5 fair value estimate based on a sum of the parts analysis, and we think the upside/downside is attractive here.
(cont) Goog interrupted and said well actually we just filed a paper (30 pages last week) on how lte and wifi can get along.
For a moment they were debating one another, and to us it's become apparent Goog prob only got involved here once lte entered the picture- as its a big part of their future plans in unlicensed.
Overall our thoughts are Goog didn't bring anything new to the debate and or signify intention to ramp up against.
MSft- The Msft speaker spent 60% of his time talking Bluetooth and the rest skype- which we now know is where they will launch a new wifi service from. I think it was an attempt at analogy of another variety- ie everyone knows skype and this may threaten ur experience if u use skype over wifi. He did not leave any impression with us other than towing the opposition line and being the only one who referred to any of the slides.
Of note Ncta sent a jr guy who we heard said this was his first public event, seems he was sent w orders of whatever is said/asked just respond "more testing"...
Overall was fairly innocuous event. The question to us on the back of this is whether they ratchet this up from here. Spoke to several investors/clients in attendance to get their views. Concern all falls along the same lines.
We continue to believe this advances to a vote, that opposition attempts like today are delay tactics that have come too late, and that tlps is approved.
Thanks Steven from FB.
From Odeon: Nothing new in my view - a lot of dumbing down of the issues, probably to benefit targeted audience of policy makers. I brought a lobbyist who was chief of staff to a senator for number of years, has been involved in spectrum, and knows DC w me to get the lay of the land; and he didn't spot anyone of any significance.
Some notes: - it started off somewhat fair and balanced w several saying that more testing could actually lead to compromise; just that gsat has been unwilling or unresponsive. They barely mentioned the demo throughout and those that did towed the line 'it wasn't rigorous enough'
- since OTI, wifi, Ncta, and wispa basically reiterated a substantial amount of what we already know, will just list notes on Msft and Goog here - as they represent the concern moving fwd
Goog-the Goog speaker never mentioned anything technical, and started w a flawed analogy of a public park and a private house trying to reclaim public property for their own use. Goog was adamant that gsat should stick to their own spectrum, and didn't know the history at all. Further it seemed they didn't have a problem w gsat as long as they didn't use more unlicensed (lower pair)- which of course is their business plan as we now know.
in fact Goog didn't even know the history here. At one point he said' if i were gsat I'd of applied for just my own 10mhz and asked for lte authority'. As part of my last question I asked him was he aware they did exactly that, and that it was the FCC who steered them down this road. No reply, and as to his main objection that they not benefit from the unlicensed lower pair I also asked him was he aware that 802.11 standard requires 20mhz. To which he did not reply either. I then asked my question below, which also fell on a muted response.
Their motives toward the end were readily apparent. there was a great but brief interaction between cable and goog re lte in wifi. (cont)
Looks like Columbia Wagner increased their holdings to 35,387,157, a 4,387,157 increase.
Beck & Mack still strong at 20+ million shares.
Bank of Mellon largest fund to close out by selling 1,216,057 shares.
Took trash out and lo and behold Waste Pro CNG truck pulls up. Driver said he loves the truck, quiet, and gets 300 miles between fill ups with 62 gallon tanks. Hated diesel noise and smell.
The OneWeb startup founded by Richard Branson's Virgin and Qualcomm, has announced that it has awarded European aerospace giant Airbus a multi-billion dollar production contract for internet-beaming satellites. The company aims provide connectivity to underserved communities around the world through an enormous constellation of small satellites -- each one only weighing about 150kg and costing under $500,000 to produce. Of the 900 units that Airbus is contracted to create, 700 of them will be launched by 2018. Once in orbit they'll create a constellation 10 times larger than any other satellite set currently in orbit. The other 200 will be held on-planet as replacements and backups. Airbus will reportedly produce 10 initial satellites at its Toulouse manufacturing facility before moving the operation to an undisclosed American facility for the remainder of the program
looks like Steven is leading with his checkbook here, as per Canadian Insider he is still buying with most recent July 2 - 951,000 shares.
Since June 5th it shows 3,752,500 shares bought on 10 different dates.