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VMware, Inc. Message Board

whbog 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 2, 2015 12:21 PM Member since: May 31, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Warning ...

    by connie_cangelosi Sep 2, 2015 9:00 AM
    whbog whbog Sep 2, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    "By the way remember the Chinese authorities have no clue how to run a free capital market system."

    And neither do our authorities.

  • whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 9:18 PM Flag

    You are quoting a neocon blog. They give no attributes and that quote on google only yields that blog and other pages that reference that same blog. Is that how you get information? Are you suggesting that Iranians never called their country Iran before 1935?

  • whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    So... Why did the CFO leave at such a critical time for the company? Anybody still trust management?

  • Reply to

    Iran deal = Treason

    by goskiing99 Aug 23, 2015 12:17 PM
    whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    You are a fool. I am a libertarian -- not a progressive at all. Stop pretending you know anything.

    All their own texts eg, the shah nameh and others, referred to the country as Iran in their own language. The word 'persian' in their language is transliterated as 'Farsi' and only refers to their language. To Iranians that's all it has ever meant, well before 1935. #$%$ Germany did not give them the word aryan and Iran did not become a fascist state or even adopt fascist policies. That shah was deposed by the British and his son was put in place -- who was deposed in 1979 by popular resistance that was afterward co-opted by Khomeini. Iran was under de facto control of the British in 1935 -- so irking the British may have been the intent but it would have happened anyway eventually because that's how Iranians have always referred to their country. Btw the word Aryan was only given racist connotations by the #$%$s. Iranians would not have thought of it that way. To them, calling their country Iran is the same as The English calling their country England.

  • Reply to

    Iran deal = Treason

    by goskiing99 Aug 23, 2015 12:17 PM
    whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    What utter nonsense. Iran was the word Iranians used for to refer to their own country for 2500+ years. Persia was the Greek word for Iran, named for a single province. Aryans were the people who migrated from the steppes of southern Russia into Iran and India. Iranians have always called their own country Iran. They simply changed the official name of their own country to reflect that. You have no idea what you're saying.

  • Reply to

    Oil Independence

    by bullthrower5 Aug 24, 2015 12:34 AM
    whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    "with the Saudis bankrupting our petroleum industry. "

    They are not bankrupting the industry. Bad companies like LINE et al will go bankrupt. The industry will survive and prosper. Good companies like EOG are not in trouble.

    Not only that, but oil prices have always been volatile, long before the Saudi royal family ever started stinking up the earth with their presence. It is a boom and bust industry and always has been. You cannot expect to increase crude production by 5MMbpd barrels in the US and have it not affect prices, can you?

  • whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 1:31 PM Flag

    Saying that crude is only 28% of the product mix is misleading and really kind of useless. That's 28% of volume equivalents, not revenue or earnings. Also, "low decline" means nothing. The decline rate average is 15% across their producing assets. That means they have to invest constantly to fight that 15% decline rate. If you don't spend capital to develop properties, revenues (and therefore cash flow) will drop.
    In the past, LINE has raised capital by selling units very regularly, or they have borrowed, and sometimes a combination of both. This was the motivation of the BRY deal -- to fight the decline rate -- the job of every E&P. But none of these options are available at this time. Operating cash flow doesn't help you much if you have an enormous capital budget just to maintain flat revenues.

    And as far as their hedging, think about it this way:
    1) If you are hedged 90% on crude in 2015, then for every dollar crude drops, you lose roughly 540,000/quarter in cash flow.
    2) For 2016, oil is hedged 70%, so for every dollar oil is below $90 cash decreases from 2015 by $1M per quarter per dollar. So at $40 crude, cash flow for 2016 will be $200M less than 2015. Just from having less hedged oil.
    3) NG is hedged at 100% for 2016, sure, but at 60 cents less per mcf -- which is roughly $140M less in cash flow for 2016 than 2015. This doesn't even have anything to do with the crude decline.

    Going forward, only look at free cash flow. It's the only thing that matters if this company is to survive and for 2016 they are looking at significantly negative free cash flow -- not good if you've got $10B+ in debt. "Distributable cash flow" or DCF is a nonsense, nearly fraudulent term. Most of what the company says and reports is misleading nonsense. Look at the numbers themselves. Look at their cash balances and debt and the issuing of units over time. Those numbers that tell the real story of LINE.

  • Reply to

    Now yielding 51%

    by crk00 Aug 24, 2015 11:56 AM
    whbog whbog Aug 24, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    There is no yield anymore. God forbid someone buys this because they think it pays anything. It does not.

  • Reply to

    Reviewing LINN's hedged position

    by dlw2244 Aug 20, 2015 3:21 PM
    whbog whbog Aug 21, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Learn about something called enterprise value.

  • Reply to

    Survival Mode

    by ronharv Aug 17, 2015 8:11 PM
    whbog whbog Aug 18, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    "Come 2017, when oil prices haven't risen and the hedges are sadly lacking, Linn will do whatever it can to limp along and avoid bankruptcy. "

    LINE will have trouble surviving past November. The review of their credit facilities is coming this fall and likely to wipe out any liquidity they still have. They have no other ways of borrowing or raising capital. They can sell assets but there are many other distressed E&Ps that are going to be selling too. LINE is finished.

  • whbog whbog Aug 10, 2015 11:31 PM Flag

    They can buy debt on open market. Perfectly legal.

  • whbog whbog Aug 6, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    You're joking right? SA has a mountain of currency reserves and almost no debt. They'd be fine with $40 crude for a long time. Long after the likes of Linn are taken by bondholders.

  • Reply to

    Relax Folks

    by wildislife Jul 31, 2015 9:18 AM
    whbog whbog Jul 31, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Yeah, according to Linn management, Linn management did a great job last quarter. They executed well on their ridiculous business model. Now do longs admit the upstream mlp model is fraud?

  • Reply to

    Paying down debt vs paying dividend.

    by arman12321232 Jul 30, 2015 1:54 PM
    whbog whbog Jul 30, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    They have to pay down debt to improve their credit standing. It's got nothing to do with unlocking value. If you want a dividend look elsewhere.

  • Reply to

    Astonishingly low P/B

    by arman12321232 Jul 24, 2015 9:32 AM
    whbog whbog Jul 24, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    A leadership position in ltc is not something to boast about.

  • Reply to

    Decline

    by jdm1234567892002 Jul 20, 2015 12:02 PM
    whbog whbog Jul 20, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    They did not raise $1.5B for capex. They got a commitment where private equity would invest in wells and pay Linn a fee. They did this because they could not afford to develop their own property because they've maxed out the credit card -- they couldn't borrow any more and they knew it. Bonds are trading under 60%. Their credit line was reduced and they were forced to raise cash from the equity market at depressed prices and only a drop in the bucket at that. And the terms of their credit agreement are likely to be amended again. So yes, the decline is one indication (of many) that Bk is likely.

  • Reply to

    Shanghai down 6 percent

    by jane_tate Jun 22, 2015 1:49 AM
    whbog whbog Jun 22, 2015 3:43 AM Flag

    Shanghai was down 6% on friday. There's already been a us trading session since then. China markets are closed monday.

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