And it looks like the bull trade in JCP is over. When you look at the fundamentals there is no way you can justify a price over $10. Not going bk, but not going much higher either.
when you consider the enterprise value is really $9B at this price. In retail you really should include payables in EV sum. Assuming EBITDA eventually at $1B (still a big if), a multiple of 9x is pretty high, and that's being optimistic with EBITDA projections. I believe the company survives and maybe improves over time, but the current valuation is too high. There are too many shorts in the stock, and you'll see a squeeze tomorrow but I think the stock settles back under $10 eventually where it is fully valued IMO.
I think it may just be a reiteration. The press release says that $1.5B in repurchase authorization remains, which wouldn't be the case if they just authorized an additional $2B. Anyway, we'll wait for the 10Q to clear it up. The pr is ambiguous.
$1.25, doofus. It says right there on the report. With the sale of ILFC it was 2.10. A very good report even without ILFC. We'll keep in mind that you were recommending to short at 52.
I think it's probably both the market sell off and a GNW issue.
The CEO was pretty non-committal on the reserve for LTC. He seemingly had no idea and refused to give a ballpark number. He just said they will conduct a review and hopefully be done by next ER, though he didn't promise even that. On MI, he seemed to think they would cover most of it with reinsurance, and some with funds from the holding company. So in a nutshell, MI is not a problem and LTC is a big fat question mark.
When you say you have to review your capital reserves, you are basically saying that your operations have been inadequate for your business, that you may have been underestimating liabilities, and your earnings power is uncertain. So that brings a a very basic distrust from the market and probably a steep discount in terms of price to earnings because there is doubt as to the quality and sustainability of your earnings. It's worse than a simple miss of earnings estimates. Hence the huge sell off.
Jon's been on this board forever and I'm pretty sure he's not working for an options player. He's just saying that the market will react the way it reacts and there's no way to predict it in the short term. There's long term value here and the stock will eventually rise to reflect that. As long as we're quoting great investors, here's one from the father of value investing:
"In the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine."
Not sure what chart you're looking at to get 20 cents, but the 50dma moved up from 7.91 to 8.81 in the last 3 months. That's 90 cents. The stock has moved from 7.98 to 9.20 in 3 months -- or 15% up. And the stock is $4+ above its Feb low -- 80%+ up.
There are no smart shorts left in JCP. The short trade was over in March. The 200dma has turned positive -- the first time in forever. The bar for JCP is still set pretty low. All they have to do is beat 6% SSS on their next earnings, something they achieved in the last Q with weather problems, a terrible retail environment, negative GDP, and most of their home depts not even fully stocked. This q they've had home depts open and fully stocked for a full three months and better weather and a retail environment that can only be better than the last q. I'm not saying this stock is a screaming buy because I think it's only worth $10-11 so the risk/reward isn't that great, but it's certainly not a good short.
...and WMT and TGT and BBY and RAX and GOOG and GRPN and everybody else. If making money is not an objective you can compete with everybody.
They will not be buying back stock because they have to meet the new capital requirements for US MI. Any capital return to shareholders before 2016 is very unlikely.
Straight down? You mean 30 cents? I don't make one hour trades. I make trades for several months at least and I've been here pounding the table since $47, looking for 58+ by EOY and 60+ by next March.. So pay attention. I don't care about 30 cent moves. I care about 20%+ moves. Stocks can go up or down in the short term. I don't care. This particular beast has been let out of its cage and it's going up long term.
I'm not a huge believer in charts but I see resistance around $52. What I do believe in is the trend line. Stocks that can develop a clear trend line direction tend to continue in that direction. And I think the long term value here justifies the positive trend. Everything negative is behind Citi. Banamex, CCAR failure, the DOJ, toxic assets, etc. I'm looking for 58+ by year end, which will just about equal tangible book.
It crossed above the 200dma the other day, bounced off of it, held above it yesterday, and now it's taking off. The 200dma has also turned positive, the 50 and 20dma are also sharply positive, with the 50 providing a golden cross in a few weeks. The settlement is over, Citi holdings has turned a profit(!), and there's now only the prospect of improved earnings and significant capital return next year.