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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

whbog 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 31, 2015 10:12 AM Member since: May 31, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Relax Folks

    by wildislife Jul 31, 2015 9:18 AM
    whbog whbog Jul 31, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Yeah, according to Linn management, Linn management did a great job last quarter. They executed well on their ridiculous business model. Now do longs admit the upstream mlp model is fraud?

  • Reply to

    Paying down debt vs paying dividend.

    by arman12321232 Jul 30, 2015 1:54 PM
    whbog whbog Jul 30, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    They have to pay down debt to improve their credit standing. It's got nothing to do with unlocking value. If you want a dividend look elsewhere.

  • Reply to

    Astonishingly low P/B

    by arman12321232 Jul 24, 2015 9:32 AM
    whbog whbog Jul 24, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    A leadership position in ltc is not something to boast about.

  • Reply to


    by jdm1234567892002 Jul 20, 2015 12:02 PM
    whbog whbog Jul 20, 2015 12:28 PM Flag

    They did not raise $1.5B for capex. They got a commitment where private equity would invest in wells and pay Linn a fee. They did this because they could not afford to develop their own property because they've maxed out the credit card -- they couldn't borrow any more and they knew it. Bonds are trading under 60%. Their credit line was reduced and they were forced to raise cash from the equity market at depressed prices and only a drop in the bucket at that. And the terms of their credit agreement are likely to be amended again. So yes, the decline is one indication (of many) that Bk is likely.

  • Reply to

    Shanghai down 6 percent

    by jane_tate Jun 22, 2015 1:49 AM
    whbog whbog Jun 22, 2015 3:43 AM Flag

    Shanghai was down 6% on friday. There's already been a us trading session since then. China markets are closed monday.

  • Reply to

    peak oil

    by colonelflashmanvc Jun 3, 2015 7:28 AM
    whbog whbog Jun 3, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    You people have no idea what you're talking about. "Peak oil" is not a scientific theory but an industrial/economic theory. The amount of oil in the ground IS finite and the mega oil fields of the middle east (Ghawar especially) have peaked in their production. There have not been ANY discoveries of crude to replace the dwindling production of these fields in the coming years. NONE. Resurgent US production will only last another five years or so. You have to understand the Hubbert's curve to know that PRODUCTION is a function of how much oil is in the ground and how long a field has ben producing. The "theory" of peak oil is that WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION FOLLOWS THE HUBBERT'S CURVE (PEAKING AND THEN DECLINING AT SOME POINT IN THE FUTURE) WHILE CRUDE DEMAND WILL ONLY GROW. Hence, the end of the age of crude oil will come well before crude oil runs out because declining production will precipitate economic crises. The whole point of peak oil theory is that PRODUCTION peaks well before crude runs out -- a simple fact that industry execs and analysts sometimes ignore. You can pump sewater into reservoirs to sqeueeze out more production as the Saudis have done with Ghawar, but you are only borrowing from a later point in the Hubbert Curve and the decline in production will be sharper as a result. The other thing is that US non-conventional production will fizzle out after five or six years and will prove to be a slight pimple near the top of the worldwide Hubbert Curve. Ask any real industry expert who knows what they're talking about and they will tell you that Peak Oil is an inescapable fact. The only variable is the date when the decline in production begins.

  • Reply to

    12 consecutive months negative ggr

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 1, 2015 1:25 PM
    whbog whbog Jun 1, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Yeah June 2014 was when the yoy declines started. So the comparisons going forward will be easier. Revenue has stabilized sequentially for a few months as well -- another good sign that the bottom may be in. Of course that doesn't mean things don't get even worse but I think that's unlikely and the long term value is there anyway. I can't tell you where the stock is going for the next few months but I do believe the stock will go much higher over the long term. What mpel has is extremely valuable and when the downturn ends the stock will reflect that.

  • Reply to

    12 consecutive months negative ggr

    by matrixtrade123 Jun 1, 2015 1:25 PM
    whbog whbog Jun 1, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Mpel is doing better than the vegas stocks. The ggr number was fully expected if not a little better and June's number will be closer to a 25% decline. The worst yoy comparisons are over and should flatten out by year end. IMO the upside opportunity is much better than the downside risk. Mpel is one of only six casino operators in what is the largest gaming market in the world by far and for a long time to come. Even during this downturn it's still profitable with a decent balance sheet and will only grow in the years to come. A no brainer long term.

  • Reply to

    When you have several funds targeting a stock and

    by dlw2244 May 28, 2015 1:28 PM
    whbog whbog May 28, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Yeah it's those funds that racked all that debt, bought bry when crude was at its high, paid out distributions much higher than real cash flow could support, issued units like crazy, etc etc. It's the markets fault.

  • whbog whbog May 28, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    It's always been a ponzi. Why do you think they issued so many shares over the years and accumulated so much debt? They've basically been lying about how much they spend on maintenance cap ex -- the spending required to simply maintain the same level of production -- in order to fool everybody into thinking all that massive borrowing and share issuance was for growth capital instead of maintaining the distribution. So they sold new shares to new investors to support a dividend to existing investors. How is that NOT a ponzi scheme?

  • Reply to

    Latest from David Baine

    by jane_tate May 26, 2015 4:54 PM
    whbog whbog May 27, 2015 10:06 PM Flag

    So you forgot the rest of David Bain's report where he recommends a buy on MPEL with a $28 price target.

  • Reply to

    Latest from David Baine

    by jane_tate May 26, 2015 4:54 PM
    whbog whbog May 27, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    So all you're saying is that they called the bottom before and they were wrong. Now they're saying there's more downside so that means they're right? They have more data points? Well, in another month they'll have another data point and another and another. At which point do they have enough to make them right about something? The point is that sell side analysts always ALWAYS ALWAYS tell you to buy high and sell low. In the last two months they almost all gave up and slashed their price targets drastically. Before that, they were calling bottoms every week. And before that they were telling us the Macau market will double every five years (that's not a joke). So you listen to these clowns?

  • Reply to

    Latest from David Baine

    by jane_tate May 26, 2015 4:54 PM
    whbog whbog May 27, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    Morgan stanley had mpel at overweight and a $28 target in january. So they were recommending a buy at much higher levels -- and they were terribly wrong -- so now they're recommending a sell at much lower levels. They've been wrong at every juncture so why do you think they're right now?

  • Reply to

    Yahoo worth $41B, BABA shares worth $37B

    by cspanosmwc May 21, 2015 2:53 PM
    whbog whbog May 21, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    Assuming no taxes, share prices as of today

    BABA stake: 384Mx$94 =~ $36B
    Yahoo Japan stake =~ $8.4B
    Net cash at Yahoo =~ $4B
    Total =~ $48.4B

    Per share =~ 51.5

    Then add whatever you think YHOO is worth. I believe it's probably $6B or more.

    48.4B + 6B = 54.4B

    Per share =~ $58.3

    Of course, if you think taxes will be a problem then the calculus changes drastically. The market is worried about that so there's a discount. Considering taxes are 35% or so, that's significant and so the market is probably justified in discounting the shares until that uncertainty is removed.

    So tax Baba and YJ at 35%:
    23.4 + 5.46 + 4 =~ 32.86B

    Or approximately $35/share. That would mean YHOO core is being valued at +$9 right now if you assume BABA and YJ will be fully taxed.

  • whbog whbog May 21, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    If you don't want Spinco you can sell them as soon as you get them.

  • whbog whbog May 21, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    You only get Spinco shares. I assume it won't be called Spinco when it lists. When they value those shares, they will announce a ex-date and holders of YHOO on that date will get Spinco shares and YHOO shares will trade less the Spinco valuation per share price after that date.

  • whbog whbog May 20, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    Didn't RJ already get his revenge by destroying the company?

  • Reply to

    I will not let FCEL go over 1.2 today

    by johnboy2680 May 20, 2015 1:53 PM
    whbog whbog May 20, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    I will not let anybody make fun of you for being so obviously #$%$.

  • whbog by whbog May 20, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    That's all I have to say.

  • Reply to

    Ken Goldman Should Speak, CFO

    by cjclink3 May 19, 2015 5:33 PM
    whbog whbog May 19, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    Or they could just give a press release about the IRS situation if it's possible the Spinco tax treatment will be affected in any way.

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