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Vale S.A. Message Board

whbog 154 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: May 31, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Thinking About Buying Line

    by sandra888us Oct 31, 2013 11:33 AM
    whbog whbog Oct 31, 2013 12:10 PM Flag

    I think LINE is a binary bet, so here's what you have to think about:

    1) Are you comfortable with their accounting? If the answer is yes, then buy now. If their accounting gets a clean bill of health from the SEC, the stock will trade significantly higher than it is now.
    2) Do you have doubts about their accounting? If yes, then don't buy. If the SEC finds any serious problems with their accounting, this stock may tank.

    I actually think the BRY issue is secondary to the SEC issue. If the BRY deal falls through (and I think it will), but the SEC ends its "informal inquiry" the stock will trade higher. I believe there is a significant discount here because there is such widespread doubt about their accounting practices. BRY is a part of the discount, but the accounting doubt is the larger part IMO.

    What do I think about their accounting? I just don't know, but I believe It's very hard to cook the books when you're paying out cash so regularly. I think the upside is very good and the downside is tempered by the monthly dividends and I own some puts for protection.

    Of course, this is all JMO. Do your own dd.

  • Reply to

    Electric cars suck

    by iluvhiking57 Feb 20, 2014 12:46 PM
    whbog whbog Feb 20, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Electric motors are much more efficient than IC engines. Go learn something before you spew nonsense.

  • whbog whbog Oct 31, 2013 11:24 AM Flag

    You may hear nothing tomorrow. BRY will not just terminate the deal until they need to do so -- ie, if they get another offer or if any negotiations with Linn break down. Their language says that they CAN terminate the deal after Oct 31, not that they will. They will use their new freedom to terminate as leverage.

  • whbog whbog Jan 24, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Basically they buy puts, which protects their downside. They will have to mark to market as those puts plummet. It does not completely limit upside though -- it just reduces upside as those puts can only fall to zero at worst. Also, I believe they don't hedge NG liquids at all, so that upside will fall to the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    Thinking About Buying Line

    by sandra888us Oct 31, 2013 11:33 AM
    whbog whbog Oct 31, 2013 12:30 PM Flag

    I wold say the accounting issues are put to bed when we get an announcement that the S-4 has been accepted by the SEC and the inquiry is over. I don't think that's happened yet.

  • There, I said it. That's really all there is to say about it. I don't even know why this is a discussion on this board. And everybody should stop calling each other names -- unless you're insulting Lebron James or one of his aliases, which is entirely acceptable in my eyes.

  • whbog by whbog Dec 20, 2013 10:01 AM Flag

    is dogsh!t.

  • That was a good report. NYCB is not a residential mortgage story but a multi-family loan story. Small apartment buildings, etc. The market for these is booming in NYC in the outer boroughs. And this business will only get better as interest rates rise.

  • Reply to

    why Amazon's P/E doesnt matter

    by cline1956 Feb 18, 2014 11:15 AM
    whbog whbog Feb 18, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    1. "ecommerce" is just "Commerce" with an e in front of it. "Commerce" needs to show profits. When investors figure that out, AMZN will plummet.
    2. "Cloud is surely the next big paradigm" -- There is growing competition for AWS. And besides, do you know anything about the financial performance of AWS? AMZN provides very little info.
    3. Management is great, but at what? At growing revenues? Certainly. At making money? Certainly not. At pumping their stock price? Definitely.

  • Reply to

    Electric cars suck

    by iluvhiking57 Feb 20, 2014 12:46 PM
    whbog whbog Feb 20, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Um, no it's not. IC engines are 17-21% efficient in terms of energy conversion. Electric cars are 59-62% efficient in converting electric power FROM THE GRID -- that accounts for charging efficiency and parasitic losses. Transmission losses are less than 10% depending on where you live, and usually less than 5% for most cities. Stop making assertions based on something you know nothing about.

  • Reply to

    I love NYCB

    by spartacusad Oct 17, 2013 8:57 AM
    whbog whbog Oct 21, 2013 11:27 AM Flag

    Yes, the safety of the dividend is a risk because of that high payout ratio. But they have a long history of paying that dividend, and when you compare NYCB to its peers, you'll find many regional banks paying dividends higher than earnings. In a low interest rate environment, these banks will have trouble making money, but going forward their prospects look much better. NYCB will pay you to wait and won't be losing any capital in the meantime. I also think NYCB is positioned better than most because of rising property prices and gentrification in NYC's outer boroughs.

  • Reply to

    ObamaCare Is HAMMERING Middle Class Families

    by bjspokanimal Nov 11, 2013 11:52 AM
    whbog whbog Nov 11, 2013 2:20 PM Flag

    Ok, once you get political on these boards, you can effectively declare the board dead because it will get taken over by the crazies, and there will no longer be any discussion about AIG. Yeah, Obamacare sucks, I buy insurance too, and my premium is going up as well (though not nearly 3x), so I don't disagree with you. But this is not the place.

  • Reply to

    Unbelievable

    by wall.street13 Dec 16, 2013 3:30 PM
    whbog whbog Dec 16, 2013 3:55 PM Flag

    Hold the stock, write calls about 6-8 weeks out -- roughly comprising 2 ex-divs -- preferably when there's a sharp upward movement, and you can effectively double that fat dividend. And then you don't care so much that the stock drops on a given day or trades sideways for a long time.

  • whbog whbog Feb 5, 2014 9:35 AM Flag

    An IPO is a good idea precisely when things are rockin. Anyway, it's just an IPO -- not a sale of the whole business, but a great way to unlock value.

  • Reply to

    Just wanted to say, thank you Kevin Kaiser!

    by ruby.thedyke Dec 31, 2013 11:05 AM
    whbog whbog Dec 31, 2013 11:28 AM Flag

    Well, he made a name for himself, especially attacking Richard Kinder. The great thing about being a sell side analyst is that there is no actual accountability. You can simply make big bold calls (see: Meredith Whitney), get a lot of press and maybe some short term market reactions, and a year or two later no one will care that your call didn't pan out in the long run, but they will still remember your name as the one who makes big bold calls.

    Personally, I think he's somewhat right about MLPs. There is a bubble and they pay out way too much in distributions -- which is why you see them issuing shares so often, just to raise cash or to make acquisitions. Higher interest rates will change that in a couple of years. But I don't think it's a good idea to short MLPs, because you can't very long for the bear case to play out. So in that sense, he's very wrong. I expect MLPs to do well (even if it's a bubble) for a couple more years.

  • Reply to

    why the price drop for the past few days?

    by noquickgame Jan 22, 2014 9:02 AM
    whbog whbog Jan 23, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    TRV crushed estimates and was sold off and downgraded, apparently because premium growth is slowing and softer forecasts for P&C rates. I don't think that was really reflected in TRV's report though. It seems to be an analyst view on the industry. TRV killed it and they've got a $5B+ buyback program. That's more than 15% of outstanding shares for a company that is trading near 10x earnings (pre-buyback) and pays over a 2% yield. And it's a dow component to boot. But people like AMZN and NFLX for some reason -- companies that make no money. Go figure.

    I think it's just a sector rotation. Insurance was a big winner last year and maybe this is some profit taking. Or maybe the beginnings of a more substantial market correction. We are long overdue for one.

  • Reply to

    If you are wise

    by stproz Feb 28, 2014 8:31 AM
    whbog whbog Feb 28, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    The run up is simply attention being paid to the space after PLUG's successes lately. Hence, the reason I am here. Can anybody tell me what the deal is with gross margins? I was going to buy this but I can't in good conscience buy a company with such awful GMs. Still, they're at least positive, compared to PLUG. Is this a temporary thing? Will they rise with more volume?

  • whbog whbog Mar 12, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    The "dividend" is not safe. Management tells you it is safe. Basically they borrow money or issues shares to buy assets (or companies) which ostensibly have cash flows, and then pay a huge dividend without any regard for how profitable they are. DCF (or its nameless LINE variant) is the biggest scam on the market. They pay out the capital of the company while building up debt to the moon. Take a look at the balance sheet. That debt just builds and builds and builds. What happens when interest rates go up? And of course they'll have to acquire more assets in the future. The real source of cash is in the issuing of shares to buy assets and companies. Future investors will be needed to pay out current distributions. It's nearly a ponzi scheme. This whole finance model is a time bomb. If you've made money on it, great, but it's not a long term investment and there's no telling when the ticker on this bomb will run out.

  • Reply to

    I'm not much of a "technician"

    by xridgelinerx Apr 16, 2014 11:02 AM
    whbog whbog Apr 16, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    My expert technical analysis is this:

    Holy effing #&%@! This #&%@ #&%@ing #&%@s.

  • whbog whbog Mar 19, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    There is doubt about their ability to pay the distribution. By their own inflated metric, they will cover the dividend by only a cat's whisker in 2014. What if there's a supply disruption? What if hedges don't perform? Are they hedged against interest rates? What about the balance sheet? And you do know that they are paying out capital every month, not earnings, right? Not cash flow or free cash flow either. They pay out some MLP-specific idea called Distributable Cash Flow which basically means that any expense that is capitalized doesn't really count as cash for some reason. Why not? Because !!!

    They will need to issue new units or add to debt in order to pay the distribution. That's what they've been doing for a long time. That's what the BRY acquisition was all about. The share price is very important to the payment of future distributions -- because that's where the future cash will come from. Units increase and debt increases endlessly. When interest rates rise -- and someday they will be substantially higher than they are today -- or when the street no longer buys into it, this financing model will no longer work.

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