My experience is to wait until they have disappointment and share price plummets. Most of the multibagger biotechs rebounded from depressed levels.
while still losing money, losses are decreasing and revenue is increasing. the bar has been set very low. i have postion and am adding on dips. my time horizon is years. in best case scenario, breakeven or small profit in Q4 and growing profits in 2016 and beyond with multibagger potential esp given very low cap and float it has history working against it but anything is possible.
not tricky. there is both huge risk and huge reward potential i believe long term reward potential is 25X the risk - ie could go to $20 long term but could also go to zero. sold my PBMD. re CLSN - i also own it and believe it has reward/risk profile similar to DCTH. Neal has been on target with DCTH and will continue to be as long as trend is bearish. imo if p2 is positive, the tide will turn in a tsunamic way.
It appears that way but volume was a result of CC which was positive - enough funds for P2, if it is successful then Merck Serono can exercise option to pay for P3. Questions from Maxim (their investment bank) analyst. I would not be surprised if he begins coverage.
Listen to the CC - yoy and sequential growth, decreased losses with possible breakeven by Q4 and Zack is not interested in selling now. The reward/risk profile is very asymettrical. Yes - possible to slowly lose everything, but also possible to multiply investment by one or two orders of magnitude over years.
finally showing initial signs of strength. imo has the most asymettrical reward/risk prospect of any stock i've ever seen. possible 300 bagger. market is assigning 0.33 % (one third of one percent) chance to this scenario.. i think its more like 25%,
Enough funds through P2 MS trials. IND for NMO by end of year. Platform for personalized immunology. Jason McCarthy , analyst with Maxim, had good Q&A session with company. Personally I view company as lottery ticket with much lower odds - perhaps 1 in 4 chance of being 300 bagger (market is now assigning a 1 in 300 chance of success) and believe a modest investment (which I am willing to write off) can have a transformative impact on wealth.
I continue to maintain that this has 10+ bagger potential long term. For those concerned about short term price I offer the following
1. Markets are inefficient especially for small caps. Those arguing higher price are arguing growth which is only beginning. The small cap markets have a "show me" attitude.
2. Lack of coverage. Small caps that are more efficient often have analyst coverage, often as a result of an investment banking arrangement brought about by need for cash
3. Balance sheet along with losses raises issue of possible secondary. Company alluded to that during CC but only under the right circumstances. Managing this issue is critical In some instances investment banks and hedgies try to drive price down. In other instances good news is used to create price rise (remember that of a few years ago) so that new shares can be issued at high prices with minimal dilution.
PhDs are fine for product development but not needed for manufacturing. i dont think we are being played. i do think we may be in first inning of prolonged growth phase. we will only know this in retrospect. and i think company has 10+ bagger potential - but over years, well beyond the timeframe of investors who want instant gratification.
Similarity: both in early 70's
Differences: Duggan - energy level and mindset of someone in 40s. Stoll - attributes are of someone in 70s.
Duggan - entrepreneur, mover and shaker, dealmaker. has a lot of skin in game. Put $13M into PCYC when it was $1.30 and in P2.. Arranged partnership with upfront payments and milestone incentives so that P3 was cash flow positive! Ultmately turned $13M into over $2 B in a few years.
Stoll (and rest of BoD) - very little skin in game. Energy level of retirement community. Comfortable with status quo. Dealmaking ability of an inanimate object. Afraid or impotent to make things happen.