you were right in your earlier comments about impact of high debt load. blackrock increased its position on the dip. selling for less than half of bv. i'm thinking of buying. thoughts?
thanks for the compliment :) My huge position reflects confidence in the company and technology. Be aware that the sales model has changed. For SaaS model the annual subscription revenues for a given sale are roughly 1/3 that for outright software sale. The CFO has repeated stated that this model results in a negative impact on short term revenues.
there's also the possibility of either meeting expectations or profit underperformance as result of shorter shopping season and early price discounts. either scenario will trigger selling, given sales seaonality. the stock has been acting weak and has unfilled gap in the 13's. i've pared back position.
As a long term holder of size, I can profit huge from short term price gain. But I believe recent discussions of short term growth are overstated, self-aggrandizing and inconsistent with company statements. The company backed away from projections of Q4 profits during Q3 CC - it said nothing because it didnt know.
It has already repeatedly emphasized the negative short term (a couple of years) impact of SaaS on revenues.
increasing volume and price as result of overly optimistic SA article. the article is way too optimistic short term. It quotes Zack on his Q2 statement about Q4 profits -which were blatantly missing from his Q3 discussion. It fails to mention CFO statements which repeatedly emphasize that SaaS/Cloud will have negative impact on revenues in the short term (about 2 yrs).
patience is a must with this stock. shareholders should be willing to think years, not months, and tolerate frequent disappointment. hopes for near term earnings are optimistic at best, delusional at worst. 2 CC ago they mentioned profitable Q4, last CC they omitted this. CCs frequently mention that the cloud model defers revenues and earnings. the company seems content with a docile approach to sales. we need to see dramatic shakeup in approach.
one of the dangers I've experienced with this type of trade is getting a tiny fill at the bid - between 1 and 10 shares which has a dramatic input on the actual purchase price even with tiny commissions. i will pass until i see decent size at decent ask.
yesterday LIVE, today MWIP. well written report - compares small fry with major players to somehow say its undervalued. but small fry have tiny revenues. fine print indicates he's getting $4K "subscription fee" from 3rd party. my WAG is 3rd party is a momo player getting ready to dump for nice gain.
thanks. it popped on my insider screen. what keeps me away is tiny volume. i'd like to be able to invest several $k at a time without moving stock.
50 D MA now flat, could begin upturn if PPS at least stays flat. If so (many ifs), then on track for golden cross in about 6 weeks. if golden cross appears imminent, look for PPS to lead, perhaps with upmove on or possibly before earnings. last year I was wrong in thinking pps would react to earnings, it actually proacted in advance of earnings
appreciate your guidance. my experience with these companies has been positive when buying at prices usually 75% below IPO price (sometimes 90% below IPO price), usually precipitated by bad news. i only buy if there is either huge insider buying or buying by biotech fund with good track record (eg BVF partners, Orbimed, RA Capital).
avg joe is scared of giving back gains of last few years and may be getting out of market - could be a wise move when viewed in retrospect a year or two from now. i have raised cash position to over 85%, still holding huge positions in a few favorites and small to medium positions in over 35 stocks (down from 50) and still scanning for insider buys at value prices. I notice many small caps had huge jumps (Jan effect), settled back and are trying to rally.
None of the following are profitable, some depend on FDA approval. others upon growing sales. They do share either strong insider or fund ownership or buying. Many have gaps at much higher levels. Some also have gaps at both higher and lower levels - for these I'm looking to buy the dips. Heres a list for that I play to buyi on dips (not to chase at current price)
BAXS, STXS, ACHN, PBMD, NURO
One more (not biotech) soon to be profitable GKNT (looking to buy on dips filling gap in the 13's)