in at 3.7 out at range of 5 to 7.4. the risk and reward are in the balance sheet. negative SE of 516 M
but balance sheet includes 990 M of liabilities labelled "subject to compromise" depending upon the compromise and whether there is conversion to equity/dilution will determine value of existing 4.9M outstanding shares
i wish longs well and i wish the company well. departure of bernitz was a big disappointment for me as it signifies lack of interest by large pharma given results to date. macd has also just turned negative. on positive note the market easily absorbed by sales so someone is buying. also on positive note while my long term track record is excellent, this year i have been somewhat of a contrary indicator :)
i am now out given bearish chart (MACD) and departure of steve bernitz whose responsibility was to arrange partnership with large pharma. imo they are skeptical and the stock has now become one with binary outcome dependent upon drug results. if there is to ultimately be an analogy with PCYC then i expect major disappointment, drop to the 1's, large insider buying and major upside - right now this scenario is scifi but i will monitor.
agree about sales - both IP and strongbox. also agree about the potential and the risk associated with whether they can execute - whether Strongbox will see market acceptance, how much friction there will be with IP monetization. imo short to mid term we can see 50% drop from current levels on flat sales, increased legal expenses or market correction. longer term the upside if strongbox and IP monetization are realized without excessive legal and SG&A expenses
actually i was in at a little over a buck, out in the upper 2's. unfilled gap at 1.57. there is no room for disappointment for current buyers
even at those prices there was doubt about product and IP traction as it has history of losses. while long term upside potential may be huge, stock has gotten way ahead of itself given lack of revenue growth and ongoing losses
I see estimates ranging from 1 to 27. I also notice some traders pumping stock at upper end of BB so they can unload and dissing stock at lower end of BB so that they can reload. Neither of us know where its going. Binary events will break it out of range and will determine its direction. The next binary event is midyear analysis of AML-LI results.
will determine whether or not P3 is pursued. Significant as it will indicate potential breadth of product line. Imo it will result in either breakout or breakdown from range. WAG is that it adds or subtracts 2 pts from current price.
It now meets our purchase criteria but at what price. By criteria I mean insider buying and soon to be profitability. Ideally I'd like to add to core position at the gap in the 1.60s - 1.70s . Right now BBs are far apart and stock needs to consolidate. My concern is whether it goes that low before Q3 (profitable EPS) pop Alternatively it may turn around at higher level (say 2 ish) then pop before or after Q3 results and then drop to the 1.60s - 1.70s on Q4 loss. If so, then waiting for rock bottom may result in lost opportunity to capitalize on Q3 profits. Comments welcome.
pfd shares. in return he's getting something not available to us commoners a 7% divy that will increase to 10% in June 2016
$2M x 7% = 140 k annual = 35 K per quarter. when added to existing 75k pfd divies, add to $110k barely within $115k cap.
no can't expect news every day, but imo those advocating breakout on no news are wrong, the trend is up but until there's news the trend is within constraints of a range bounded by the BBs
sold portion that was added yesterday on lack of follow through . Still have large core position that I will most likely add to on dips