yes i caught body but missed fxcm. these type of stocks are TA plays. few go straight to zero. after huge drop there is usually some pop. a stock that drops 90% can double and still be down 80% from original value. I have done well with very depressed stocks for longer term but I look for much better fundamentals and insider buying and a turnaround catalyst
while your target was not hit yesterday, you are up as of this posting. your trades have been spot on - buying on huge dips and then selling on pops. thus far you are well ahead of the buy and hold strategy. well done!
the risk is that it zigs and zags even if it goes upward. this gives it natural tendency to lose value over time even if oil is flat - because it is leveaged. over 3 yr period it will be down a lot with flat oil. if oil double over 3 yrs there is chance UCO will be flat. the sweet spot is oil doubling over a few months.
your thoughts? huge decrease on swiss franc related losses. but just got huge loan. looks like huge risk but possibly huge reward. astute insider selling 2 weeks ago @ $17. will watch for insider buying. staying away for now
agree. the short term focus of the Pickens article is to wait for rig count to get to 1400-1500 before oil bottoms. It still has way to go. Once it turns its anybody's guess whether we see extended U shape or quick V shape recovery.
Great Motley Fool article. Very bullish long term (12-18 mo) - sees $100 oil. Main takeaway is how to predict bottom. Rig count is lagging indicator - oil begins recovery before rig count does. He thinks we will see bottom when rig count drops from recent peak of about 2000 to 1400-1500 (after that rig count will continue dropping while oil price drops). Right now rig count is 1729. I conclude that oil price will retest, possibly break recent lows after current mini-rally is over.
only contract with substantial open interest was the jan 2.5 call whjch expired yesterday. that would explain why its less than 2.5 but not why its that much less. it looks like gap may be filled before further upmoves. this would shake out weak hands
thanks so much. while an experienced investor, i am novice to leveraged ETFs and have been whipsawed on UCO. i agree with your approach. the thing that scares me short term re. oil is COP chart - unfilled gap at 49 and tiny unfilled gap in the 30s - this leads me to believe correction has more to go. the recent bounce off lower channel of long term uptrend is natural. given downside potential of COP, i think that WTI may ultimately fall into the 30s. At that price Mideast, Latin America, Canada and onshore (excluding fracking) US is still profitable. Offshore drilling (esp deep water) and fracking is not
neglecting decay, that would mean quick rise to $75. factoring in decay it means longer term rise to well above that number.