Please explain how the shorts are giving away shares since they don't have shares to give away?
More then likely what's happening is someone's selling everyday & the short uses that weakness to cover?
#1. I reviewed the ACAD conference call again & decided that things didn't add up so I sold this morning. I wasn't sure if I could trust their management which is the same thing I've said about ATRS's management for years. I'm sure the fact that I was having to take a loss influenced my initial reaction to yesterdays news.
#2. ATRS has no idea when they will get approved. They don't even have a meeting scheduled to determine what additional data is needed. Just pointing out facts.
Facts are facts - Epipen & Sumatriptan are pretty much priced in to the stock price. Otrexup is a cash drain & QST approval in late 2017. Looks like it may be dead money for the most part.
The sell-off is ridiculous. The drug works & they've got break through status. No one likes how they handled this but it looks like a 6 month delay. I'm sure BB have not sold one share.
I also bought SLXP 4 months ago when Adam was bashing it. Companies are fighting to pay a 100% premium to where it was trading in the AH's.
What did Adam say about SLXP in November? "Now, investors don't know how to value Salix, and the likelihood of the company being acquired with a dark accounting cloud over its head is all but gone."
4 months later companies are fighting to buy them out at a 100% premium to where it was trading when he made that statement.
"Now, investors don't know how to value Salix, and the likelihood of the company being acquired with a dark accounting cloud over its head is all but gone"
The shorts want you to run for the exits.
Firing the CEO was the first step. Next step should be finding a buyer.
I can't believe how they've handled this situation. They pushed back the timing previously & stated there were no problems. Something was going on.
We've started to carry Vazculep in addition to Bloxiverz at my hospital. We use a ton of phenylephrine pre-filled syringes but I don't know what brand of phenylephrine the compounding pharmacy uses. More & more hospitals are using the pre-filled syringes so I imagine it played a part in Sandoz leaving the market.
I can't imagine JAZZ not being honest. They probably have a number of formulations.
Nammunag, someone saw a commercial & asked about the drug. PFE is continuing the development for the arthritis & psoriasis market. They're also planning to file a supplemental NDA for Xeljanz to expand its use. Analysts project sales of $1.6 billion on 2016 so its potentially a blockbuster. I'm sure posters have mentioned the drug numerous times on the board.
Andre pointed out that INCY's drug is an even safer & more effective treatment which will be on the market in another year.
My position in ATRS has nothing to do with my comments on Xeljanz. Someone asked about the drug & I gave some information but Nammuang went on the attack so I had to simplify things for him. The drug was approved by the FDA so it is safe no matter if the EU denied approval. I imagine the EU will change their opinion once PFE provides Phase IV data. This is not unusual.
As far as ATRS. The problem with ATRS is that its got so many shares that the upside is limited. In addition, there is a fair amount of risk with the pipeline, they're continuing to not meet expectations, & burn cash.
If you want to focus on the positives then I could point to a number of catalysts. Epi-pen approval is a major milestone however there is risk it won't get an AB rating or approved this year. The other main driver is QST but its difficult to predict sales. Management has previously stated generic gels will be the biggest threat & what would a partnering deal look like since they've also stated they wouldn't market it on their own. There also is the threat of an oral testosterone replacement & new FDA requirements.
I don't intend to buy back unless I see a trading opportunity but that doesn't mean ATRS won't turn out to be a decent long-term play. A number of factors play into my investment decision so just because an investment is not good for me doesn't mean I think its not good for others.
If I'm looking for a long term safe medical play then I'd rather invest in HYH then ATRS. If I'm looking for stocks that I think could double then I'd rather invest in ESPR then ATRS. If I'm trying to make a quick 20% or 30% gain then I'll invest in ARQL instead of ATRS. I don't like to have a bunch of stocks in my portfolio so ATRS doesn't fit into the mix at this time.
The size of an investors portfolio also plays a role in what investments they choose. I don't know why ATRS attracts all these investors who would jump on the sword to defend the company.
I'll give you some help since I know its close to your bedtime. Google this,
"Two-Year Results From Pfizer’s XELJANZ® (Tofacitinib Citrate) ORAL Start Study Published in The New England Journal of Medicine "
There is so many reasons why the market goes up or down that trying to pinpoint one reason is a case of futility. You've got traders that sell at the drop of the hat since their hoping to buy back lower. You've got traders/funds that are reducing their positions in stocks which have already seen big gains this year. You've got funds selling in order to raise cash & rotate to different sectors or reposition for a changing Fed environment. Everyone is always trying to get ahead of the next guy.
You can point to the Fed as the reason for Bear markets. First they raise rates which slows down the economy but they overdue things which causes a depression. The market has historically moved higher after initial Fed tightening so any pullbacks should be bought.
If you want to use old information then that's fine. How many times do I have to prove you wrong? Learn to google something so that I don't have to spoon feed you.
Xeljanz - oral treatment developed by PFE & approved since 2012. It was approved as a second line treatment but some new studies show it being more effective then methotrexate.
The recently published New England Journal of Medicine article showing kids exposed to peanuts at an early age had a significantly reduced risk of developing peanut allergies might have turned off investors.
"Randomized Trial of Peanut Consumption in Infants at Risk for Peanut Allergy"
CARA is hitting the market at the perfect time. The key thinking in anesthesia & other areas of pain management is a " Multimodal" approach where the use of different drugs or techniques are used to improve patient satisfaction. IV acetaminophen (Ofirmev) & longer acting local anesthetics (Exparel) are continuing to see growth due to dissatisfaction with current opioids. . Cost is no longer the number one priority when selecting a pain drug which will benefit CARA.
The science is pretty straightforward but its going to take awhile to prove the efficacy & safety.
I'm a nurse anesthetist & biotech trader by profession. Pain management & pharmacology is a big part of my daily work. I've been telling investors to jump on CARA. If the oral formulation continues to show comparable efficacy without the side effects of current opioids then it doesn't get bigger. I think previous failures by other companies trying to develop Kappa agonists has investors using a wait & see mentality toward the stock.
The IV formulation should do well in the market but its not in the same ball park as an oral med. CARA needs to get moving on the Phase II trial for oral CR845.