Cyto, I posted that I sold my remaining shares & there's no reason for me to try & influence others into selling also. I sold for a number of reasons but it basically boils down to other stocks interest me more.
I've got positions in HALO, ACAD, CHTP, ITMN, NBIX, & CYNAF in my speculative portfolio.
CHTP - will have a FDA decision after the close Friday. It's traded up on high volume so the good entry points may have passed.
ACAD - I bought at $21.75 the other day & I also reduced my basis by selling calls for $1.65. I think its going to trade in the $21 - $24 range until Dec. I'd keep it on watch for an entry.
HALO - I've got a core position.
ITMN - Good chance for positive data in the 2nd qtr. Trading at $13.47 & price target of $35 or $8 in a few months.
NBIX - posted some comments today. I think its undervalued. Possible sizable EU partnership on their Tardive dyskinesia drug & Phase III data also in 2014 for the program partnered with Abbott.
CYNAF - It may turn out to be a good play one day.
I don't like to hold a lot of positions since it takes too much work. I also got burnt out at the end of 2013 so I plan to take advantage of the volatility in 2014 & look for opportunities where I can make a quick 15 or 20% & move on to the next one.
I've not recommended anyone selling any shares in ATRS. The undying loyalty some investors have for the stock turns me off & I just need a break. The insider selling also bothers me & I did what some investors advise which is sell if I don't like it.
Epritske, I've been negative on DARA since Shadowplay put it on the board over a year ago. Jason, Adam, & the Baker Brothers all make good & bad calls. NBIX is not a pump & dump. They reported positive Phase II data & their partnered with Abbott & have over 80% institutional ownership. Geeeeeez.
I bought ITMN this morning @ $12.48 & its now trading at $13.04. The company will report data in the second qtr so the run-up has started. If the data is positive then the stock will have big gains but negative data would be a disaster for investors. Most ATRS investors wouldn't be interested in this unless they were traders.
My other buy is NBIX. This is the type of biotech investment that I really like. The company is undervalued & investors are ignoring the potential. The stock doubled from $9 to $20 recently when they reported positive Phase II data (NBI-98854) for their trial to treat tardive dyskinesia & is now trading @ $16.30. This is a $500 million market opportunity & the company has a $1.1 billion valuation with $150 million in the bank . The trial was stat positive & Jason Napodano has seen video evidence showing how well the drug worked for some individuals. The company plans to partner the NBI-98854 outside the US which would be a significant value addition. As a biotech investor it doesn't get much better.
The company is partnered with Abbott on a drug to treat Endometriosis & Uterine fibroid pain with Phase III data expected later in the year. This is a huge indication with no competitors. In addition, they have a number of drugs in early stages. I'm surprised the company is not mentioned as a buy-out candidate by Abbott & would be a good addition for ATRS investors to add to their portfolio,
Koufax, I can point to a number of reasons but the final straw is the negative sentiment surrounding testosterone replacement. I anticipate the FDA issuing new guidance & potential lawsuits may put a kink in any chances for a buy-out & that's the only reason I was sticking around.
FierceBiotech had a story this week titled "AbbVie is hit with 5 lawsuits citing the dangers of its 'low T' drug"
& the previous weeks. "FDA investigating heart and stroke risks of using testosterone to treat 'low T'"
"Journal of the American Medical Association found that using testosterone increased the risk of death from heart attack or stroke by 29% in men with or without a history of heart disease." That's nothing to ignore.
IMS Health predicts the entire testosterone replacement market to hit $5 billion by 2017 so I'm sure that I'm overreacting but like I said, testosterone is the final dagger to push me out.
I'm surprised that your not speculating ATRS is going into the antiperspirant business. Maybe your friend can write an SA article.
Don't believe anything you read on a message board. Most of the posters want the stock to move higher so they can sell before the PDUFA date.
I don't see us breaking $5. 4th qtr numbers are going to exceed expectations due to a one time payment & I'm sure the analyst numbers will be revised prior to the earning release. #2. There is very little chance of anything other then positive data from the QST trial so its already priced in.
The only thing that's going to move the stock over $5 is if they can give us a positive update on Otrexup's launch. If they give their normal conservative approach of saying its to early then investors will take this as a negative & we'll end the day lower.
Don't take this as a bash. I'm just telling you from experience with this stock & management.
I know how you like charts. Minyanville has an article: Charts: " If History Is Our Guide, the S&P Will Hit Highs Again in Two Months."
"It has certainly happened fast this time around as well. In the span of less than two weeks, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) went from sitting within spitting distance of a 52-week high, to erasing the past 73 days' worth of gains. That's a quick adjustment in market perception.
But it's not all bad. The charts below show every time since 1928 that we saw a similar occurrence. Each of these dates highlight a period when the S&P went from closing at or very near a 52-week high, to closing at a 70-day (or more) low within two weeks.
We can see from the charts that this proved to be an intermediate-term buying opportunity every time. Three months later, the S&P was higher all eight times, averaging excellent gains of more than +8% on average. It took the S&P about two months to recover and close at a new high, with a further loss of an average -1.6% before doing so."
Doesn't get better then 100%