I backed away from some of the speculative or early stage biotechs since the pumping or manipulation has gotten out of control. IDRA & ISR are prime examples.
The same could be said for SYN. I like the company but I don't think Trimesta is worth a dollar to SYN even if the data is positive. I'm sure that won't stop investors from pumping its value. If Trimesta is negative then I might reenter & if its positive then I won't look at the stock again.
ISR - Cesium 131 has been approved for 10 yrs. The company does $1 million a qtr in sales & the cost of the drug exceeds the revenues. Why is the company all of a sudden worth 5 or 6 times the value from a month ago? They reported on one unusual case & the stock exploded. I guess investors feel there's a lot more of those unusual cases. Yes, they came up with a few new ways to dose patients but I doubt this is going to increase its use to a wide extent.
I previously stated the stock could move higher since its market cap was so low but I also said it would be based on pumping & not actual revenue numbers. I was 100% wrong to not focus on the pump potential & blindly invest in the company instead of reality.
Maybe it has to do with managements lack of credibility. Management has a history of hiding information.
Ex. Investors were the last to find out about the epi-pen patent issues. Could the same thing happen with the methotrexate patent?
Even under the best case scenario the estimates are for $14 million in sales for Otrexup. That's a positive but its just not going to generate that much excitement for a company with a $500 million market cap. In addition a lot of investors don't want to deal with the litigation risks at every turn, Medac is trying to go after Otrexup, ADMP is trying to enter the epi-pen market with a cheaper product, & lawyers are going after the testosterone market.
Every new drug has a $60K - $80K a year price tags & its unsustainable. I realize drug development is expensive but there has to be some sort of price controls. You see how more companies are going after orphan drug indications where they can charge exorbitant prices since there's no alternative. How many $250K a yr drugs can we afford?
I'm not sure the negative sentiment is going to end that easily. Some serious damage has taken place & investors/institutions are having to reevaluate what their really invested in.
I'd like to see a buy-out or two.
You have to be able to handle the good & the bad. I saw a tweet the other day that said the last time this occurred in the sector the slide lasted for 9 months.
It doesn't sound like they really give free samples. They provide one injection for free in the office. The patient then gets a script for a 4 week supply. This has been explained several times.
They only have about 7 days left but maybe we can give them an extension.
Most antifreeze is not sweet since manufactures add bitter flavors to prevent accidental poisoning. Once you drink it then there's no turning back. You can look forward to a painful death in the next few days.
IMS provides weekly numbers for refills & new prescriptions. I'm not sure about Symphony.
I continue to think its an uphill battle for Otrexup & it might take longer then some investors think to achieve 500 scrips a week.
If you had rheumatoid arthritis what drug would you want to be prescribed if oral methotrexate failed to reduce your symptoms or if you experienced side effects?
Would you want Otrexup or a biologic?
None of us are patent lawyers so that's why I hoped ATRS would enlighten shareholders. Saying its against company policy to discuss legal issues is OK when another company is controlling a partnered drug but when its your own product then that's not adequate. There is nothing management could say which would damage their case or is not known by the other party as it relates to the expected legal proceeding.
I'm in the belief ATRS is protected for the next 3 yrs at a minimum however I can also give you another side to the story which needs to be addressed by management. I know this may sound off the wall but this is why the legal issues are going to impact the shareprice.
#1. Medac was the original developers of some formulations of SQ methotrexate in the EU. This is acknowledged in ATRS's patent applications.
#2. Medac filed their patent before ATRS
#3. Medac has expended millions for clinical development in order to market their product in the US. Patent -trolls do not do this.
#4. Why did Medac file a 505(b)(2) instead of just filing an ANDA unless they expect to market their drug in less then 3 yrs.
Why didn't Medac file their lawsuit against ATRS before Otrexup's approval. Maybe Medac knew they were a year behind in the development & would let ATRS establish a market, file an injunction once they got approval & eliminate ATRS/Otrexup from the market.
I've never seen two companies file NDA applications like this so I'm unsure if this is a Paragraph IV challenge which automatically gives ATRS 30 months of protection. What if ATRS & Medac are in court within the year?