I hate the recent financing for EBIO. The buyers of the secondary can short the shares & benefit on the upside with the warrants. Small investors can get jacked around.
learned is that a majority of stock prices eventually recover after a negative binary event. I invested in KBIO last year & took a hit when they reported negative news on one their programs. The stock is trading down with end of the year selling but they have data early in 2015. I took a position today since I see 40% downside & 200% upside on positive data.
How do you figure I got last place? Not that I'm proud of a - 40% pick.
The bottom 10
I might have been a little high but I was also adding in the time value of money. I just think they paid a high price for a Phase II drug with any number of regulatory, clinical, & competitive hurdles. I bet it doesn't get approved before 2018.
I think your underestimating the BO value.
Acorda paid $525 million
Its going to be the end of 2016 before they file an NDA
Increased risk for a CRL in comparison
Phase III trial will cost over $50 million
Cost to maintain the manufacturing facility
If you really think about the investment that Acorda is making then its got to be higher then $1 billion in todays dollars. Acorda estimates the market opportunity at $500 million a year. I imagine this number will be reduced once CYNAF's strip is approved but there's also a good chance CYNAF will be the first to gain approval & have a larger market share.
I can easily find a reference: Q3 2013 CC - Leroux Jooste
"Now our discussions with pharmacy and medical directors suggest that most likely, initial access to OTREXUP will be at tier 3, and several plans I've mentioned the possibility of tier 2 placement. I can also confirm today that last week, we met the deadline for mandatory Medicare and Medicaid state coverage effective January 1, 2014."
I realize I was wrong to think Otrexup could be a Tier I but Otrexup is not even a Tier III in some programs. Its a Tier IV or specialty drug.
Preferred Brand-name Drugs are TIER II – Preferred brand-name drugs are available at a slightly higher copay than generic drugs. The preferred brand-name drug tier consists of the vast majority of high-quality branded drugs.
I'm sure management has stated Otrexup would move to Tier-2 in time so how can that be true?
I'm surprised CYNAF's traded this weak after the Acorda buyout of Civitas. If you look into the mechanism of action for Acorda's levodopa inhaler vs CYNAF's sublingual apomorphine then it doesn't make sense for CYNAF to not be valued higher.
That's true but saving money is the reason Otrexup was going to be a success. The reasons you give are why individuals are switched from methotrexate to biologics.
If Otrexup saved money then why isn't it listed as a Tier 1 drug? Why do 3rd party payers make it difficult to obtain a prescription?
I can easily defend my position. Its pretty clear that insurance companies are not comparing Otrexup - biologics. If they were doing so then Otrexup would be listed as a Tier 1 drug instead of a specialty drug. Insurance companies are putting blocks in front of Otrexup which makes it easier for patients to get a biologic then Otrexup.
They look at the drug & a comparable substitution. Biologics are not comparable to Otrexup. Biologics are comparable to biologics so they put the cheapest biologic on their preferred list.
They compare Otrexup - oral methotrexate.
I completely disagree. The actions by Express will hurt ATRS. Insurance companies won't compare Otrexup - biologics. They will compare Otrexup to oral methotrexate. The next step is negotiate the pricing for biologics so that there is actually a small difference between Otrexup - biologic.
I also think the actions hurt QST since they will be listed as a specialty drug since generic testosterone gels will be available.
ATRS might have to change the game plan & go back to concentrating on the injector business instead of the internal programs.
TD, I really have a problem with ATRS's management leaking information to certain shareholders which is what your implying.
I've missed out on any number of opportunities since I couldn't understand the valuation. I have a hard time valuing ATRS at $350 million & the same is true with CTSO. Congrats on your gains. I don't understand why you want to be a jerk.
The BAC downgrade helped the shorts but the analyst used a 9 P/E ratio to come up with his price target which is stupid. If he had used an average P/E ratio of 19 for the sector then his target would been about $170.