go down enough, if investment conference talks show ethernet turning around as advertised by management, might make for another good trade again - buy in summer, sell in Feb for a nice turn-around play.
have not gone through the cc for elx or qlgc yet, off hand:
1. qlgc/elx guided -10%/-3.5% and both came in low at -13.5%/5%. But even the -5%, memory serves me, is better than seasonal.
2. qlgc's shortage due to ethernet not performing because 'customers are taking longer to qualify the new servers'. FC did better than they expected. Qlgc picked up major market shares for the Q. Should be over 60% FC market share now.
3. But don't think the market share gains that will be reported will be as good as it reads. 3 months ago I said that elx will be using this as their kitchen-sink quarter and with the buyout, I am sure they deferred some shipments so the new owner will look good down the road.
4. They are still reporting 90+% share in the all-flash market. Since that market is growing fast, that's encouraging.
5. ethernet is supposed to recover to be a 2H story. So not expecting the stock to be just market bound the next six months. Will have to follow their investment conference talks to get any updated small changes in the business.
Will go read both transcripts and see what more I can see. I tuned into qlgc cc and I was able to get in right after the questions period = no interest in the stock/company if there's room in the feed for anyone to join that late. Guess that got reflected in the after hours, zero movement.
Now see what else I can pick on on their transcripts.
emc did not report bad, just not good, no growth, just like ntap. Only growth seen in all-flash + aws/msft clouds.
ntap looks like breaking medium trend downtrends?
Down on a day like today - this stock is just following the medium term trend line established since early Dec. Definitely tradeable for pennies unless for some acute events like buy-outs or earnings warning.
As to buying-in for hold... no hurry, can wait till at least the stock breaks that down trend first.
Was looking at this to see if I can trade it or even buy back in, but the technicals are so ugly,so far below even the 50 dma, think I'll just watch. Think this has got a long way to go before it might turn.
"all reports say ntap will be at 15 plus percent of storage in less than 2 yrs" - do share your sources. The only real growth I've been reading about, backed up by the companies' top line growth, are the all flash start-ups.
thanks for the honest feedback.
I made very good % on my ntap shares when I sold. I will be keeping an eye on this. I don't have the tech storage expertise that you do, so for me, the #s do all the talking. I crowd-soured my last sale - under performed nas over time. So I'll probably do that again for buying in.
comparing elx vs qlgc CCs/financial symposiums had been fun
- Grantly cycle 'hitting with full force' VS 'will see it later in 15'
- exploding sky's-the-limit flash arrays 'we have 90% of that market' VS 'we finally have NImble Storage', not sole sourced
- 32G FC 'we think we have a year and a half lead' VS ?
- ethernet '#2 in market share, can and will cost down' VS ?
- gained market share every year going back to inception of company VS 'duh...duh.....'
- only positive for elx is they still own ibm/unix and that finally is not falling anymore, after steadily contracting since dotcom days. They hope.
- guided minus 3.5% sequential VS minus 10% sequential,
- wildly profitable real GAPP earnings VS never made a GAPP cent and never will
- cash $285M/no debt VS $185M/$150M debt
- cash flow $26M VS $16M
- used half their cash to buy brcd market share + nice position in ethernet VS used all their cash to pay off Elliott through stock buyback @$7+, + buy this nothing SW company, now $150M debt
qlgc is back now, the stock price should move up as sales/profits fill in.
elx, elx is nothing but a market share repository for qlgc.
now if qlgc will declare a quarterly dividend....... the street likes that from tech stocks now.
companies can pay too much on buybacks too - last Q's $200M buyback, all that's underwater by at least $20M already, just for that tranche.
Unless for monopoly/duopoly, tech is a predator/prey game, no such thing as standing still. ntap missed on all the #s. They are now prey. I read the beginning of the transcript, couldn't bear to read more, too sad for a company that used to take market share left and right. Sad especially how Gerogens, instead of providing a clear authoritative answer, sort of mumbled through on why deals were not getting closed for last Q. Did not sound like even now he understands what happened.
Buybacks changes nothing in the biz. In the end, it's the tech/biz. Tech/Biz dies, last share out turn off the lights.
seems like there was some accumulation of qlgc, thereby driving the spurt up. I've been wondering why.
I just listened to the Stifel Technology, Internet and Media Conference 2015. No wonder the move up!
recommend anybody who's got qlgc or elx to listen to that web cast. Broke down the whole business by segments and guidance for each segment going forward.
Think qlgc is going much much higher. I think I'll just sit on my residual 15% for a while unless I smell a big correction coming down.
here's another play on oil - canadian bank stock. google US investors betting against Canadian banks on oil, economy. Right now, one buys in CDN at a very good exchange rate. When those bank stocks go up, the CDN should go up with it, thereby increasing profits on FX gains. More my style of investing and not really your style of trading.
lol, I see a lot of poor 'pros' here. Sales #s don't lie, ntap is losing market share fast. The shorts won this one hands down.
Me, me 'amateur' sold in mid-dec at $42.20 and I sleep good with the proceeds under my pillow.
hey thegreatone: you've got any stop loss set? hehehhe......
But seriously, your pumping is as fake as a two dollar bill.