Mobile DRAM bit demand is set to exceed 400 million gigabits (Gb) in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 35.5% on quarter and over 70% on year, according to Digitimes Research.
DRAM bit demand for smartphones will rise to 334 million Gb in the fourth quarter of 2013, up 39.1% sequentially and 92.1% on year, while that for tablets will increase 41.9% on quarter and 40.5% from a year ago to 65.8 million Gb, Digitimes Research said.
Mobile DRAM will spur a 26.8% increase in overall DRAM bit demand in 2013, Digitimes Research noted. Overall mobile DRAM bit demand is forecast to reach 1.28 billion Gb in 2013, up 74.8% from 733.5 million Gb in 2012, Digitimes Research said.
Overall niche-market DRAM bit demand will come to 502.8 million Gb in the fourth quarter of 2013, representing growth of 29.1% on quarter and 61.7% on year, Digitimes Research projected. In all of 2013, the bit demand is forecast to total about 1.53 billion Gb, up 65% from 926.8 million Gb in 2012, Digitimes Research said.
The overall DRAM market, which consists of PC- and server-use DRAM, and niche-market memory, is forecast to consume 4.145 billion Gb in 2013, according to Digitimes Research.
24 September 2013
The DRAM spot price, which moved sideways for months, has been skyrocketing since the fire accident in SK Hynix’s Plant in Wuxi, China. In particular, that of the DDR3 2Gb (1,666MHz) has jumped by over 43% when compared to before the accident.
According to DRAMeXchange’s data made available on September 22, the spot price of the DDR3 2Gb (1,666MHz) increased more than 43% in two weeks to reach US$2.277. The price has continued its upward trend this month. On September 5, the day following the fire accident, it jumped 19%.
Prices are expected to continue to rise as SK Hynix works to repair FAB factory in Wuxi.
The fire that damaged SK Hynix Semiconductor's FAB plant lasted almost two hours. The Wuxi facility accounts for 10% of the world's DRAM production and produces almost half of the 260,000 memory wafers Hynix makes every month, according to TrendForce.
The price of 2Gbit DRAM chips, commonly used in desktop and laptop memory modules, has passed the $2 mark, representing a 27.6% increase since the fire, said Avril Wu, an analyst at DRAMeXchange.
"Based on our current evaluation, this fire is going to impact supply sharply. Therefore, the price of both spot price and contract price is likely to keep going up," Wu said.
While DRAM equipment spending dropped by 35 percent in 2011 and 25 percent in 2012, the SEMI data shows that DRAM fab equipment spending will increase by 17 percent in 2013 and at least 30 percent in 2014. An increase of about 2 to 3 percent for installed capacity for DRAM in 2014 is small but remarkable, given that the industry has not added any new DRAM capacity for years, and actually cutback capacity between 2011 and 2013.
"I don't have an agenda. I don't own any FORM and don't work there"
You don't own shares and yet you have time to post on the msg board with a SELL rating. You're painting a picture of a horrible person.
"If they continue to manufacture the same chip they do not need to buy anything from FORM."
That is the dumbest statement ever!
"The fire at Hynix's Wuxi, China, fab is expected to help improve the DRAM fundamentals into 1H14"
DRAM fundamentals are historically weakest during Q4 and Q1. If this helps improve DRAM fundamentals into 1H14 how can you not see this as positive for FF when it still derives more than 40% of its revenue from DRAM?
Add the fact FF is working on new product to address the NAND segments which will be available 1Q14 then you have continuous improvement in company's fundamentals.
Some people choose to look at everything with negative glasses.
Following reports last week of a fire at the DRAM plant of South Korean manufacturer SK Hynix (000660KS), and a spate of endorsements of competitor Micron Technology (MU), Susquehanna Financial Group's Mehdi Hosseini took the unusual step of upgrading the stocks of both companies, raising his rating on Hynix to “Positive” from Neutral, and raising Micron to Neutral from “Negative.”
As far as Hynix, Hosseini thinks the possibility of a cut in production is already factored into the price of the shares at a recent ₩28,450, and he sees upside to ₩36,500, higher than his prior target of ₩32,000:
The fire at Hynix's Wuxi, China, fab is expected to help improve the DRAM fundamentals into 1H14. Following our Taiwan trip a few weeks ago, we argued the above avg OEM/channel inventories, combined with disappointing PC sell-through in 2H13 to lead to 5-10% per quarter DRAM ASP decline in 2H13. However, the Wuxi fire is expected to reduce OEM/ channel inventories by 2-3 weeks, and thus cause OEM/Channel inventories to decline to below 6 weeks by YE13. This is expected to help with: (1) better than seasonal trends in 1H14, and (2) better overall blended ASP in CY14. Thus, although we are reducing our 2H13 est for Hynix to account for lower DRAM shipment, our CY14 est have increased [...] The fire started in the Wuxi DRAM fab on the afternoon of Sep-4, lasting 90 min. We estimate this fab to have had a capacity of 135k wpm, with a 50/50 mix of 35/29nm process tech. Our checks indicate the fire started in the basement, though the second floor (of this four-story building) was impacted as the smoke reached and filled this floor through the ventilation system. According to an update by Hynix on Sep-8, some operation has already started in the areas that were not impacted by the fire nor the smoke.• We estimate 3Q13 rev impact of W225B, or 6% lower: (1) Wuxi fab accounts for 50% of Hynix DRAM production, (2) Hynix will in the near term rely on the 2-3 weeks of DRAM inventory to sh