Looks like no breakout before earnings. Need to go thru 90.56 for that to happen.
no, I don't think this is old news (even though it does sound like it). From my understanding, previously, there was a letter calling for the gov't to look into the Gilead's pricing. The gov't has never contacted Gilead DIRECTLY until today.
Thanks for the link Hew. Anybody know the possible outcome from this? Has there ever been a case where the gov't was successful in forcing a drug company to re-price?
I'm out for now too. I think this letter is significant because it is addressed directly to Gilead. And Gilead will now have to respond. They will have to address this at their earnings conference call too.
After a long hard battle at the 83.01 ± 1.16 range, GILD finally broke thru last week and has now quickly moved up almost 7% (breakout). There is now resistance forming at 87.79 ± 1.23, type Single, strength 2. GILD came close today, but was not able to break this resistance. Even if she breaks this area, I suspect there will be heavier resistance at the $90 area. It's doubtful she can break this area before earnings. After earnings...it's anybody's call.
Silver on its way to 22. Broke free of not only 20 resistance, but also 20.50...youtubeDOTcom/watch?v=sNgnksIa0Ew
Excerpt regarding Europe:
The fact that we shorten the duration to 12 weeks made a huge difference to patients and to doctors and their staff in terms of amount of time that difficulty of getting patients to these regimens. So we are seeing very high completion rates of therapies during the first quarter.
Likewise in Europe, we saw a rapid uptake of the product, even though we are on the market only in Germany and France. I think it's arguably one of the best launches in Europe because the roll-out takes longer to get pricing and reimbursement. We had very favorable placement of the EASL guidelines, which is important for how the medicine we use across the European Union and for the European discussions. And we are going through pricing and reimbursement discussions across the European Union right now.
For example, we are under nice review, but importantly we just got a rating of ASMR 2 in France. One is the highest rating very hard to get. Two means it's a highly innovative product and a very good rating for the value that we have for this product. And will help with our negotiations on pricing in France. And then importantly in Scotland, we just got viewed as being cost effective within the Scottish Healthcare System and the Scottish Healthcare System is typically one of the toughest to get that kind of designation. So I think it bodes very well for the remainder of the pricing and reimbursement negotiations across Europe
This really is a MUST READ:
Here excerpt about pipelines:
I mentioned in our pipeline. Our pipeline has gotten so full, it takes 3 slides to go through it. I never thought that we would have these many things going this quickly. But the pipeline in fact is quite full.
Excerpt concerning price of Solvaldi:
There has been a lot talk about the cost per pill of Sovaldi, but I want to talk about the cost per regimen. A regimen is a number of medicines that it takes to fight the disease. And if you look at the cost of Sovaldi plus pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for 12 weeks, it cost just over $94,000.
If you look at the cost of care for other comparable medicines around the market either Telaprevir, which is typically used for 8 weeks plus 4-day weeks of PEG/RBV or Sofosbuvir, which can be used between 24 and 48 weeks. You see that both of those are in excess of $96,000 almost $97,000 on average between the two. So the cost of care for Sovaldi containing regimen is actually less than what the current standard of care with the – standard of care had been prior to the launch of Sovaldi. So we had felt that this is a very reasonable price based on the fact that its simpler, it's shorter and let's not forget the SVR rate, the rate of care is higher on this regimen than on the other regimen as well.
* He also says only 40000 patients with HCV out of 1.7 million (in US) were being treated in the last 12 months, which is a negative "reflection of the difficulty of the other medicines". "So the volume remains the issue, what we do about all these patients who suddenly can seek care and want to seek care because the disease can be managed much more easily than it could be before. And this will manifest itself even more when the fixed dose combination comes to market in the future we eliminate the need for PEG/RBV."
There's much much more....MUST READ
considering the deal today doesn't mean much in terms of new competition for Gilead (at least for another 4-5 years). The price just bounced again above the 80.01+-1.12 support.
had this to say:
Piper Jaffray says shares of Gilead (GILD) may come under pressure following Merck's (MRK) acquisition of Idenix (IDIX). Piper says Merck could be in a stronger position for its patent litigation against Gilead's Sovaldi but notes that consensus estimates for Gilead have always included an owed royalty for Sovaldi.
anyone care to share more info on this patent litigation? what's it worth?
Bernstein's take according to barrons:
With this transaction, Merck is becoming a more formidable competitor to Gilead in the HCV space. Merck will now be looking to add Idenix’s nuke to their existing NS5a and protease inhibitor programs to create the ultimate three-drug, pan-genotype regimen for HCV based on one of the two NS5a’s available to them, their HCV protease inhibitor and Idenix’s nuke…
Given the complexity of drug development in this space (multiple patient groups, viral genotypes, and drug-drug interactions to be studied), this combination development program is likely to take at least 4-5 years to come to market. Idenix announced the results of a 7-day proof-of-concept study of IDX437 in April. By comparison, Pharmasset announced the results of a 28-day proof-of-concept study of PSI-7977 (sofosbuvir) in May 2010. When Gilead acquired Pharmasset in late 2011, the company had studied hundreds of patients in multiple phase II trials, and was preparing for phase III. Even given that extensive work and comprehensive development, it has taken 4+ years from the PoC of the nuke to the all-oral combination coming to market. We estimate that Idenix still has at least two years of development (drug-drug interaction studies, multiple phase II’s) before the joint Merck-Idenix combination is ready for phase III, which puts final approval in the 2018-2019 time frame. We also expect the regulatory process for the Merck all-oral combination may be slower, as there will be less regulatory urgency (with GILD’s all-oral combo already on the market), and more scrutiny due to toxicities associated with nuke. Nevertheless this will certainly create an overhang for Gilead’s stock given the greater credibility and resources that Merck brings to the table, as well as the broader portfolio of combination options.
The 80.01 plus/minus 1.12 support level is holding for now, but price did temporary pushed below this level a couple times. It's holding for now, but not sure for rest of week. I'll probably sell here.
seems there's a new resistance level at 81.62 ± 1.14, type Double, strength 4. After that 83.39 ± 1.17, type Triple, strength 7.
-2.6% at 79.94 ± 1.12, type Triple, strength 10
-4.7% at 78.24 ± 1.1, type Single, strength 8
-8.7% at 74.94 ± 1.05, type Triple+, strength 10