DTA's name is all over the IP filings.
If he's not a designer of the molecule, I'm comfortable saying he's been instrumental to Cabo's development, as well as the MET/VEGFR2 combo rationale.
Posted on-line in the current issue of AACR's MCT...10/18/13 - H Fujita, et al.
I mention this write-up because past toxicity comparisons have been undertaken with Foretinib, and I'd been hopeful that this update would include Cabo as a comparator. No such luck...
Unmentioned before, but every bit as important - it is imperative to stay abreast of the competition. For my money, you cannot entertain the prospect of Ganetespib in NSCLC without considering a treatment landscape that also incorporates the use of Nivolumab and Crizotinib.
Enabler, EXEL mgmt has been notoriously stingy w/ OS data. Whether this proves good or bad for shareholders has yet to be shown. I couldn't begin to compare the two, but my gut has always held that it is better to under promise & over-deliver.
At any rate, I'm not the one to ask for technical understanding, nor will I profess to any above-average stock-picking ability. My confidence in EXEL has been inspired by the credentials of the research technicians that have chosen to guide Cabo's progress....and the integrity and repute of the research institutions that have elected to sponsor The growing assemblage of Cabo trials. Follow the brains. Follow the money.
WRT OS data previews, I feel it's best to sure before you day anything at all.
I have a small position, I bought slightly after Kovner and Caxton...here's my take....fwiw
SNTA mgnt is much disposed to sensationalizing Ganetespib results. They had an early G-1 OS signal that they chose to share (with shareholders) prematurely, and it has continued to bite them hard. Galaxy-1 was design- intended to determine the best targeted patients for Galaxy-2. It appears to have had some early positive results, including a potential OS signal. An OS signal that may be in decline as G data matures.
In addition, a discrepancy has arisen wrt an "outliers" patient group thought to have skewed recent (still immature) results, and mgmt has decided it best to exclude these stats. With good reason, market perception is not kind to these types of data exclusions, as the perception of "data arranging" cannot be easily defended.
In this regard, mgmt may have "screwed the pooch"..We'll see...
At this point, the clinical value of Ganetespib is still largely unknown, and the value of the Synta HDC platform is entirely unknown. I guess we'll know when we know. It'll be interesting to see if Kovner/Caxton continue to buy, but I wouldn't reco a buy until some mgmt confidence becomes apparent. Personally, I think feel that HSP90 inhibition will find a niche. Whether it's G or not is anyone's guess. JMHO
Cabo's effect on bone biology continues to raise more questions than it answers, though there is some striking positivity to this research. Is there enough noteworthy patient benefit in the bone-micro environment with Cabo treatment to commercialize Cometriq as a bone agent? Is there enough benefit to restage cancer that has metastasized to the bone, and continue with another viable therapeutic? Will all this still be true if Cabo fails to deliver a statsig OS as a monotherapeutic? The Cabo window of optimum and lasting effect has yet to be succinctly defined, but it sure makes me wonder if there is an eventual end to all the smoke & mirrors of biological review. Cabo spends more time under the lab microscope than any 10 of my other biotech investments...I hope it proves worthwhile.
targetedoncdotcom today 10/25/13....good message here...
"A third study is looking at the VEGF receptor TKI cabozantinib, which is approved for progressive metastatic medullary thyroid cancer. “Cabozantinib is somewhat different from the other agents in the field in that it blocks the VEGF receptors and the receptor MET,” George said. “This is a biology we think is very important in kidney cancer, particularly in patients who have progressed on the VEGF inhibitors. The protein that binds and activates the MET receptor, called hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), is made in the liver, but also in tumors. It’s responsible for cell motility. It may also help blood vessels grow in tumors. Inhibiting both VEGFR and MET together results in treatment effects following progression on VEGF receptor TKIs. We saw this drug working in an earlier study in a large number of patients who had failed other VEGF receptor TKIs. So it’s now being studied compared to everolimus in patients who have progressed on a prior VEGFR TKI.”
"my blood is boiling and it won't settle until you are squeezed into submission on this one bitc(*es"
You are a waste of good air...
Ernie, how do you formulate market sentiment?
One of my other holdings-HALO-is up strong today on announcing a SWOG-sponsored P2 study. If EXEL shareholders had a nickel for every IST-sponsored P2 Cabo trial...well, we'd all have pocketful of nickels...
Why has all the peripheral funding of Cabo research been so arbitrarily discounted by Mr Market?...particularly when the market seems to favor the outside funding in other biotech genre's..?
This is from today's Marketwire:
"THE OPINION: William Blair & Co. analyst Y. Katherine Xu now says peak sales of Iclusig will reach about $300 million a year, down from $425 million. Xu downgraded Ariad stock to "Market Perform" from "Outperform." Analyst Joel Sendek of Stifel Nicolaus lowered his estimate to $276 million from $298 million."
Question: Do these #'s justify a nearly 90% SP haircut?
Sometimes ....having my own, personal cheerleader...
Seems a bit like having my own, personal chicken-choker.
Fezz - what, if I might ask is the "PFE...$6-dollar target deal with HALO...??
Could I trouble you to elucidate??
Posted 10/13/13 at Glassdoordotcom...
“Efficient, goal-oriented company”
"Senior Scientist (Former Employee)
South San Francisco, CA
I worked at Exelixis full-time for more than 8 years
Pros – Excellent management. Smart and hard working people.
Cons – Since everyone knows the top priority of the company and department, it is a little frustrated to be assigned to the low priority projects.
Yes, I would recommend this company to a friend"
Invited guest speaker
"Dr. Joy Zhu serves as the vice president of oncology clinical development at Halozyme Therapeutics. She leads all clinical development strategies and activities of the company’s oncology pipeline. From 2006 to 2011, she served as Senior Vice President of Global Clinical Development of S*BIO Pte Ltd., where she was responsible for global clinical and regulatory development strategies and activities."
Given the dynamics of current investigative work surrounding the clinical relationship between bone scan response and OS -Cabo approval in the prostate space will forever change the science, the treatment paradigm, the understanding of the underlying disease biology, and perhaps even create a new understanding of future targeted approaches and the ways that cell signaling pathways interact.
Not merely a game-changer, but a thought changer...A policy changer...
From the standpoint of it's outstanding utility as a remarkably responsive research tool, Cabo plays to a large audience. The researchers that have elected to participate in the Cabo story represent a virtual "Who's Who" of Oncolgy research. Thus, the validatiion of Cabo's unique effect on late-stage cancers has been very expensive... But, look where that money has gone...and look at the $10's of millions of dollars that have come in from IST's, NIH funding, and independent research teams. Cabo has even begun to enjoy celebrity status out of Cedar-Sinai's Ochsner Cancer Center.
Cabo's goes Hollywood...!!
Add to this the institutional backing, the roll-call of the BOD, and the scientific & marketing credentials of the management team...and I see but one potential obstacle - the science of the underlying biology itself...the greatest unknown of all.
The political impact of Cabo approval is largely unknown, but the Big Players have certainly been paying attention - and I harbor the belief that it has been far too early in the science of combo-MET inhibition to fast-track Cabo, given it's toxicity. Instead, we've seen a massive increase in MET/VEGFR combination research. The science is screaming to be understood.
If you're not into the Cabo story by now..best of good luck to you...
If you are long, congratulations on a wearisome and enduring holding pattern.
But, I feel a healin' pay-off a'coming on...