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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

wilderguide 178 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jan 13, 2011
  • Reply to

    Mötley Fool: Why EXEL dropped 10% Tuesday

    by wilderguide Mar 9, 2016 12:56 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 9, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

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    "I happen to like their reasoning ..Inspite of the fact that the comments issued by URABT2 make sense as well.."
    In a backhanded manner, I take it you don't like my reasoning. Market Makers have needs - needy wives, needy clients, bills to pay, lights to keep lighted so's they can find their dark pools...
    If you actually believe for a moment that anything material took place on Tuesday to drop market cap of EXEL by 10%, you are in need of a reality check. The stock got played for short-term profit-taking the same as it has for many months. If ever there were a stock screaming to be investigated for dark pool manipulation - it is this one. Tuesday was another Share Price Du Jour, inspired by nothing more than the wash, rinse, repeat cycle that has been endlessly enumerated on this MB ad nauseum.
    If Motley had a Fool worth his weight in zit #$%$, this issue would be illuminated for all to ponder.
    Rationalize your paper losses however you must, but don't let the Fools fool you...
    They don't know squat from shinola...

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    Market Maker's wife needed a new SUV...

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    "Beyond evidence-based data: scientific rationale and tumor behavior to drive sequential and personalized therapeutic strategies for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma"
    Lorena Incorvaia, et al... Oncotarget 2/8/2016
    See Figure 4... These guys have done some great theoretic and evidence-based research here, and propose that values of induced resistance and rates of disease progression (slow vs rapid) may be deciding factors in determining treatment choices in 2nd and 3rd line mRCC. Note that Cabo is clearly the first choice following rapid progression on sunitinib or pazopanib, and also note that in slow progression axitinib might share 2nd line treatment space with nivolumab. Good read...

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Mar 9, 2016 4:10 AM Flag

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    This P1 trial updated on 3/4/2016 with some noteworthy shifts in protocol. PFS & OS secondary endpoint monitoring provisions have been added - and, most optimistically - proposed enrollment has been increased from 90 to 151 patients. For such an increase in recruitment, my assumption is that DLTs must have been mild, manageable, and/or rare. The long-term (3.5 yrs) PFS/ OS provisions can be construed as optimistic as well. It'll be interesting to see Roche reporting on this one...

  • Reply to

    Cowen CC

    by erniewerner Mar 8, 2016 5:43 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 9, 2016 3:26 AM Flag

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    Bif - Check out Immunocore's lead candidate IMCgp100. Interesting platform in checkpoint inhibition via T cell redirection. Lots of similarity in rationale to PD-1i with apparently lower AE profile. Got orphan drug status from FDA this January in melanoma. Just now beginning human trials in combo with next generation Lilly cMET inhibitor merestinib. Been waiting for this private company to IPO. Lots of big partners, including Genentech...

  • Reply to

    Cowen CC

    by erniewerner Mar 8, 2016 5:43 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 9:59 PM Flag

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    MJ & Snowflake...thank you so much for the kind words.
    We have a lot of animals - sometimes more than we can really afford. It can be a pile of work. That said, the burden is not unwelcome. Kids are all grown and gone. We do what we can to re-home unwanted strays, and have enjoyed salvaging horses from exportation for slaughter. One of our salvage thoroughbred mares has carried a local FFA barrel-racing princess to multiple prizes, and is regarded as a local phenomenon. My personal taste runs to the younger animals with unrealized potential. I've had reasonable success in turning problem critters into responsive keepers, and our turnover rate has settled in at around 5 - maybe 6 - horses per year. It's a chore...
    But, it's also a mountain of fun. We currently have 8 horses, 1 burro, 1 mule, 6 goats, 5 dogs (4 soon enough) 6 cats, 3 Americanus roosters, and 9 laying hens. Mikey will be missed, but we seldom have a dull moment in which to digress...All the best...

  • Reply to

    Cowen CC

    by erniewerner Mar 8, 2016 5:43 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 7:27 PM Flag

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    Snowflake - today is a sad day for us. My wife has made a final decision for one of our oldest companion dogs - a 17 year old Westland terrier. We'll be putting Mikey down on Thursday with full decorum. A loyal companion since birth, Mikey never once faltered a moment in his devotion to my wife...and was a most entertaining friend of mine, as well.
    Glad to see you still on-board here. All the best...

  • Reply to

    Cowen CC

    by erniewerner Mar 8, 2016 5:43 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 6:42 PM Flag

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    Hey Ernie - thanks for weighing in on this conference. I've stopped listening to them. They've proven nothing more than a source of continued disappointment. The more Mike yacks, the more the stock decimates. As you know, I've long contended that the Apolo NCI trial could be amongst the most important for EXEL's future well-being, and you've just reinforced my gut feeling in this...
    Dr Apolo has openly touted Cabo response rates in bladder cancer, and openly claimed unprecedented disease regression amongst her most treatment-refractory patients with Cabo. However, whatever she's seeing in the Nivo/Ipi/Cabo combo trial is being played very close to the vest. Not a word can I find...
    The rationale appears intact, but we've all seen rationale fly south...
    I'd like to see a Cabo/Cobi combo trial - perhaps in CRC or a lung indication. There are some relevant presentations of viable rationale, and this JV funding might be a good opportunity to get a POC trial funded.
    Any thoughts?

  • Reply to

    No data in celestial (HCC) till 2017

    by hum14jbird Mar 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

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    "...they have made the comparator mistake before..."
    Meanwhile, back at the ranch...the trial to pay attention to is NCT01761266 - Lenvatenib vs Sorafenib in frontline HCC. Nivo is also recruiting a viable P3 - head-to-head with sorafenib...a combo P2 trial with Ipi...and a POC P1 study in combo with galunsertinib - all in HCC. Breakthrough results in any of these studies could easily be seen to compromise CELESTIAL...

  • Reply to

    Can Ipsen buy out the rest of EXEL?

    by enabeler Mar 8, 2016 9:27 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

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    "OS is an integral component of the sales viability."
    The timing of the JV announcement was no coincidence. I see a high likelihood they had made a prior agreement predicated on satisfactory OS reporting.
    "The PPS is being played..."
    These are the truest of words that will be posted today...

  • Reply to

    No data in celestial (HCC) till 2017

    by hum14jbird Mar 8, 2016 12:15 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

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    I suspect recruitment has been handicapped by a placebo comparator. There are currently many HCC trial options that offer viable theoretic treatment as a control.

  • Reply to

    Is trading this for sustained upside a pipe dream?

    by yhoopoke Mar 8, 2016 10:47 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

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    "Without a buyout offer, everything is built in. If CELESTIAL fail, you can see this go under $3."
    "A buyout might be over $10..."
    Whatever the true nature of the debt negotiation as proscribed by former CFO Frank Karbe, it can almost certainly be said to have created a revenue-dependent biotech equity. Up in a down market...down in an up market...down on good news...up on no news...
    A more contrived market capitalization is difficult to imagine, as share price is disconnected from historic biotech value drivers. The stock has become a trade vehicle to sustain the convertible holders, make a fistful of dough for the market makers, and create boundless options value for upper management. Predicting this stock's value is much like predicting next years' weather for a specific day, and that is not likely to change till the converts are compelled to become common shareholders. Until that time - covert, stealthful wealth-making will prevail by the MMs, the converts are free to safely keep SP range bound and below $6.91, and insiders will continue to collect on quarterly RSUs, options, and merit bonuses. Negating retail shareholder value was the trade-off made to satisfy the renegotiated debt. Do I see predators lurking in the shadows? Yes, I do...

  • Reply to

    Can Ipsen buy out the rest of EXEL?

    by enabeler Mar 8, 2016 9:27 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 8, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

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    "...if the OS#s are better than expected..."
    Those #s have been submitted to both the FDA and the EMA for labeling inclusion, and each agency has a commitment to expedite superior products to market. The EMA's PRIority MEdicine (PRIME) program was initiated only just yesterday (3/7), and specifically addresses products already enlisted by their accellerated assessment program. I think we can conclude that if superior survival benefit is gainfully obvious, the regulatory agencies can be expected to pace up a notch or two. We shouldn't have to wait much longer, and I suspect Ipsen's political connections might hasten an EMA review - especially if Cabo OS in RCC has bested existing treatments.

  • wilderguide wilderguide Mar 6, 2016 6:26 PM Flag

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    "Oh Captain, my Captain..."
    Hopefully, prosperity is just around the corner...

  • Reply to

    EAU 2016 Munich

    by wilderguide Mar 2, 2016 2:03 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 4, 2016 2:36 PM Flag

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    EXEL is not listed as an exhibitor. However, Ipsen will have exposure in booth D42.
    Floor plan and exhibitor list is available on request...

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    If BMY offered $10B for the whole shebang...
    It seems we would revisit the $2s...
    Welcome to share price du jour, a wonderland of unknown market capitalization...
    Who's the Bozo driving this bus?

  • wilderguide wilderguide Mar 3, 2016 3:54 PM Flag

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    Of particular interest to me is the commentary regarding correlation of HGF, MET, and Axl to PFS1L. The rationale indicates favorable outcome for Cabo in first line, though superiority to sunitinib may yet be a reach in the absence of comparative data. As treatment-induced resistance to sunitinib becomes better understood, rationale for Cabo in post-sunitinib pts may also gain support.

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    "Circulating biomarkers and outcome from a randomised phase II trial of sunitinib vs everolimus for patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma." Voss et al. BJC Feb 23, 2016
    Some interesting results from a large P2 trial primarily powered toward non-inferiority PFS in untreated pops. The composite biomarker score differences between treatments may provide some insight into CABOSUN results.

  • Reply to

    Next ER will clearly be historic

    by wilderguide Mar 3, 2016 2:00 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Mar 3, 2016 8:10 AM Flag

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    Largest cash infusion in the company's history along with what may also reflect record revenues from two globally approved drugs being prescribed and covered by insurers in as many as four indications.

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    Yet I suspect share price will flounder, exposing this manipulative charade beyond belief...
    Where's that freekin' caped crusader when you need him?