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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

wilderguide 264 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Jan 13, 2011
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  • wilderguide by wilderguide Sep 27, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    "ESMO @ ECC2015: Greater Clinical Benefit Obtained in Advanced BRAFV600-mutated Melanoma with Cobimetinib/Vemurafenib Over Vemurafenib Is Consistent Across Mutation Subtypes"
    All this good news sure gets wearisome...

  • Reply to

    Commercial Launch Set for April 1, 2016

    by clemcaldwell Sep 26, 2015 4:30 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 27, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    "...discussion pertaining to reimbursement..."
    While I'm fairly certain protocols vary amongst payors, evidence-based oncology has made advances in the past few years, and high rate of response drugs such as Cabo seem to challenge the system. Treatment-refractory disease has become a high profile issue, and the plight of patients in search of cures has received unprecedented awareness via social media. Cabo has built a considerable wealth of evidence across a broad spectrum of treatment-resistant indications like few other treatments, and I have found evidence of insurance imbursements for Cabo in RCC, GIST, NSCLC, HCC, STS and others after multiple lines of therapy have failed. It's good to find responsive payors reacting positively in the wake of failed treatment, but we really only hear of the few successful applicants - and they likely represent the tip of a very large iceberg...much of which will remain under-the-radar due to medical/professional confidentiality. It hasn't helped that sponsors have been discouraged wrt open discussion of off-label use, but that seems to be changing too. Hope this helps...

  • Reply to

    Time for MMM to share the love...

    by wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 9:46 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 11:05 PM Flag

    Geez, dude...
    All I really wanted to do was slap the short monkey. Didn't mean no harm...

  • $$$$
    If Ernie's even ballpark close to JV guesstimates, I'd like to institute the Shareholder Love and Prosperity Policy addendum to the corporate governance. We have been endlessly patient. We deserve it...
    Heretofore referred to as SLAP (as in Slap the collective short monkey senseless)...
    I want a 15% stock buy back and a 2:1,stock split. Not much. Just enough...
    C'mon Mikey. Share the love...

  • Reply to


    by hensley_1957 Sep 26, 2015 1:08 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 7:51 PM Flag

    "Now that's not very nice..."
    Nomad, you are over-inflating your normally presumptuously predisposessing self here...
    There is yet another LBA in the offing...another indication...another venue...
    Another successful targeted agent in the EXEL pipeline...
    Another source of revenue. Another spike in Shorty's spine...
    Another nail in Shorty's coffin...
    Don't be so smarmy...
    It's unbecoming...

  • Reply to

    Commercial Launch Set for April 1, 2016

    by clemcaldwell Sep 26, 2015 4:30 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    " boil it all down and it is purely a crapshoot..."
    Not entirely. Some drugs within class boundaries tend to differentiate themselves from the pack, and Cabo is one that has displayed distinctly unique characteristics of bone-targeting, CTC reduction, and direct fast-acting homeostatic intervention within the bone micro-environment. It's very unique in how it interacts with the disease and the patient. These attributes are the key reason I've stuck with Cabo. The bone phenom has not been effectively explained, effectively replicated, nor effectively dismissed. It's a very compelling compound - unlike any other.

  • Reply to

    Commercial Launch Set for April 1, 2016

    by clemcaldwell Sep 26, 2015 4:30 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    "Sure seemed like great news but again..... Was it great?"
    Go back and review the chart that compares other TKIs in RCC. With the announcement of Meteor results at this year's ECC, it will be recognized as one of the most efficacious MKIs in it's class. Therein lies the dilemma...
    It is being compared to another class of drug - an immunotherapeutic...completely different mechanism of action. Both are effective...both work in very different ways...both confer benefit...each can be considered an effective anti-cancer strategy in this indication. What's the problem, you ask...???
    At this juncture, no one knows which is better as a 2nd line therapeutic. Not me, not you, not MMM, not Choueiri, no one.... It's too early to tell.
    ...and anyone that infers otherwise is FOS. It's really that simple...
    Jury's still out... GL

  • $$$$
    Not far from an embarrassment of riches, Choueiri opted for verbiage to convey the message that evidence-based oncology will answer many of the questions regarding the algorithm as clinical presentations dictate. Both Nivo and Cabo will find placement in second line therapy and perhaps the evidence will point to combined regimens. I expect a lot of FUD next week as shorts attempt to spin this webcast negatively - but we shareholders did pretty good today. JMO, but I also think RCC patients did very well today. Gisela did mention that the NCCN was being provided with Meteor data. I'm assuming that means a compendium listing application is being filed in addition to regulatory approval, so it'll be interesting to watch how the NCCN RCC guidelines panel responds. At this point, BMY has gotta be kicking it's own butt for giving Cabo back. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Updated comparison based on NEJM articles

    by erniewerner Sep 26, 2015 11:05 AM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Hi Ernie...
    They're still making sense of the future paradigm. There's a small collaboration between Harvard Med, Dana Farber, and Johns Hopkins calling itself the Crossroads overview. Choueiri is a player. They are looking to secure enough data to combine, sequence, etc the RCC algorithm beyond PD-1 blockade. If I remember correctly, the project correspondent is Lauren Harshman. The answers we are seeking are in progress. I'll find it after the Webcast if need be...

  • wilderguide wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 6:57 AM Flag

    "Any thoughts on the open..."
    Watch the presentation tomorrow...there's bound to be a lot of new juice on this MB.

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Sep 26, 2015 6:40 AM Flag

    Lemme see if I've got this straight...
    Following disease progression on sunitinib, future treatment choices in mRCC are most likely to become Nivo followed by Cabo. After 4 - 6 months on nivolumab, a handful of durable responders will remain on immune therapy, and most all others will be routed to treatment with cabozantinib (or whichever approved TKI they may best tolerate). Initial data also seems to suggest that superior PFS response with Cabo if used immediately following progression on sunitinib, and little is yet known regarding Cabo PFS values post-nivolumab.
    Initial data comparing Cabo to sunitinib in a frontline setting could become available within a year, and there are a mere handful of as-yet hypothetical prognostic and predictive biomarkers to guide therapy choices...none of which has an approved CDX.
    It looks like Cabo has approvable data set directed toward 2nd-3rd line incorporation in the treatment paradigm - and good enough data to be competitive if not superior to all other approved TKIs in mRCC. Where's the negative spin? Isn't this about as good as it gets? Won't we simply have to wait and see how the algorithm plays out after the importance of MET inhibition in RCC is better understood? Didn't Meteor generate any favorable bone data? What am I missing?

  • $$$$
    ...I might owe money by Monday...
    Is there no end to this madness...???

  • Reply to

    Volume stampede into close?

    by wilderguide Sep 25, 2015 2:34 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 25, 2015 3:15 PM Flag

    Sure makes me wonder what pending piece of "good news" is not already priced into this stock. Today's news was very good - but not unexpected. November's FDA Cobi approval is a no-brainer. The potential JV has been mentioned in CCs for months. Cabo is a breakthrough therapeutic reporting P3 results tomorrow. $7/share in today's AH wouldn't surprise me...not any more than $5.50...

  • wilderguide by wilderguide Sep 25, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    News lately has been very positive, and tomorrow's Meteor presentation is one of the biggest plays in biotech.
    Can we turn 15M shares in the next 90 minutes?

  • $$$$
    Regardless of the news positivity, Exelixis is still quite a ways - revenue-wise - from calling in those warrants, and we are still also quite a ways from the conditions that enable the conversion of those notes. I wouldn't want to be short going into this weekend, but I suspect that whatever good news comes from ECC doesn't move the ticker tape as shareholders would expect. It's a bit like being in the stranglehold of a boa constrictor.

  • wilderguide wilderguide Sep 24, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    JMO, but I think AF is mistaken... Here's the ECC 2015 Abstract Embargo Policy. My read on it says we get nothing till it is presented on Saturday:
    Late-breaking abstracts and abstracts selected for media for the European Cancer Congress 2015 are embargoed until the first day of presentation.

    Information contained in the abstract as well as additional data and information to be presented must not be made public before the abstract has been presented at the ECC2015.

    The first author and co-authors must not release the research/study to news media.

    If the policy is violated, the abstract will be automatically withdrawn from presentation and from publication online

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    NCT02551718 recently opened to recruiting. Interesting... Small collaboration between NCI and the Univ of Washington, the intent of which is apparently to initialize some preliminary personalized treatment guidelines in acute refractory leukemia. Reason I mention it - Cabozantinib is mentioned in a very long listing of targeted agents that are part of the trial protocol. Also according to the trial protocol - some drugs will be used in combination. I may keep an eye on it to see how it spins...

  • Reply to

    What is the expected MC after EU Approval?

    by longjohnstockman Sep 24, 2015 2:53 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 24, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    "What is the expected MC...???"
    According to Martin Shkreli, somewhere between 180-200 bazillion dollars is possible.
    If you invest here, you could someday have more money than God...

  • $$$$
    "After engaging in a spirited social media debate, Turing CEO Martin Shkreli backed off from the price increase this week and promised to make the drug more affordable. It wasn’t the first time Shkreli was involved in a case of alleged exploitation of patients with no alternative but to pay for medicine his company was producing; this time, however, not only were his business instincts wrong, his timing couldn’t have been worse."
    The bad taste left behind by this unethical attempt at price gouging will last awhile. I've decided to rename those piles my dogs leave in the backyard "Shkrelis"..and if I need to drop a turd, I've decided to rename that process "making Marties"...

  • Reply to

    Webcast from Vienna

    by erniewerner Sep 22, 2015 5:38 PM
    wilderguide wilderguide Sep 23, 2015 5:05 PM Flag

    "...why even do a webcast?"
    Given the circumstances, a lengthy addendum to the ECC presentation is a very considerate effort on behalf of shareholders. There will be many unanswered questions in the wake of back-to-back LBAs - both addressing patient needs in 2nd line RCC; both addressing similar patient groups; both addressing the same SOC 2nd comparator. I must admit, I'm impressed...this company has been a long time coming in being this responsive to shareholders. I think the webcast is a very good thing, and I have a veryositive attitude going into ESMO. GLTA

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