AMZN usually has frantic buying activity after a $60 gap up. Flat-lining after the first 15 minutes is almost unheard of. You don't have to be dumb to get fooled by AMZN.
Last quarter it took nine days to hit bottom. No need to rush in to buy those calls.
The earnings estimate is 58 cents a share compared to a loss of 12 cents in the same quarter last year. Not likely they will beat an estimate like that.
They will get burned. That is the whole reason the manipulators bought one million shares in the first half hour. They sell calls at inflated prices and buy puts at bargain prices because they already know the calls will expire worthless and the puts will be better than gold tomorrow.
I share your opinion. They (the manipulators) run up the price to sell call options at ridiculous prices. Calls that will be worthless tomorrow. For example 1,500 $650 call options have been sold at $1,200 per contract this morning. That is almost two million dollars taken from the gullible by the manipulators; and that is just one price level. The volume blows their cover. One million shares in the first half hour.
Better sell all those $630 calls today. They will lose more than half their value on Friday and it will be down hill from there next week.
The new name for brick and mortar stores AKA "pick up points". Funny how Wal-Mart is trying to get into the on line market and Amazon is trying to get into the brick and mortar market. Why don't they just combine?
Drop is not going to be that big but, from the prices that puts are bringing, it looks like you are not the only one thinking it will drop at least $30. I think that, by the end of May, we will see prices below $500 again.
Amazon options are way overpriced this week so it is to be expected that the daily time decay will be large. However, today the price of puts are actually higher than they were yesterday. What is going on?
Options are way overpriced. There will be major losers above $660 and below $590. I plan to wait and see which way it goes Friday then play it to continue that way for at least two weeks.
Basically you are right but the forecast is a 58 cent a share profit and, beating that, would make Amazon soar $40 or more. The point is, that is not going to happen. Same quarter last year AMZN lost 12 cents a share. They will likely do better this year but not 58 cents and the move will be down.
It is very doubtful that Amazon will make the forecasted 58 cents a share but there will be enough hype to keep it from "getting killed". I expect the drop to be about $40 next Friday and may go lower over the following two weeks; but Amazon is here to stay.
There are 36 forecasters and their forecasts of earnings vary from $1.12 a share to -18 cents a share for an average 58 cents. Same quarter last year the loss was 12 cents. Seems to me there is little chance that 58 cents will happen this quarter.