" I explain this time and time again to this message board and yet it is about as effective as beating my head against the wall."
Have you considered the possibility that what you are posting make very little sense, Do you think that Wal-Mart, McDonalds, and AT&T succeeded by losing profit every year?
The majority of stocks that have annual earnings of only 36 cents a share sell for less than $10 a share. What makes AMZN worth 45 times that much? Hype about cash flow and pie in the sky bye and bye.
Last quarter the up move lasted 5 days; but now that we are in the stratosphere it may not last that long.
Then how do you explain the exact call they made on the 12 cent loss and the fact that they say AMZN will only make 38 cents this year? Maybe the analysts are just cranking in the fact that only suckers buy AMZN and there is one born every minute. These same idiots vote and look at the results of that.
Amazon analysts estimate average was exactly correct at 12 cent loss. These same analysts estimate that Amazon will make 38 cents for the entire year of 2015 and, in spite of that, over 7 million shares have traded at $439+ per share in the first half hour. The World has gone crazy.
That depends on the expiration date of the options. If they expire tomorrow you can probably get $18 for them if AMZN is selling for $415. If they don't expire tomorrow hold on to them. However, I don't think
$415 is cast in stone. Since the report the price has varied from a low of $371.55 to a high of $421.34 all after market of course. Tomorrow will be a day of surprises. I hope you are not in too deep.
There is a wide variance between the guesses of the 35 analysts who follow Amazon. They range from a 56 cent loss to a 35 cent profit with the average of a 13 cent loss. Same quarter last year was a 23 cent profit so, to show progress, AMZN should report a 35 cent profit, but the majority of analysts don't think that will happen.
Extending your theory to cover the week before the report instead of just one day: The week before the last report AMZN dropped $9. This week we have gone up $5. Now what do we conclude?
I wouldn't count on that. Remember AMZN is already selling for at least ten times what it is worth. Any small disappointment tomorrow will send the price down.
There are 35 analysts that guess what the income will be. The average is a 13 cent loss and the lowest estimate is a 56 cent loss; so a 90 cent loss is not likely. Same quarter last year was a 23 cent profit and the stock price fell $30. I don't understand why there are so many that expect it to go up but I think they will be disappointed.
After the last Q-1 report AMZN dropped $30 because speculators had run up the price expecting a good report. This is beginning to look very similar.
After the Q-1 report it could go either way but we are dealing with a stock who's price it based solely on speculation. All of this pre-report run up indicates that a favourable report is expected. It won't take much disappointment to drive the price down. In fact this morning's price action is indicating some profit taking is already taking place.