2 cases in an area with poor hygiene, that can only mean that many more are now infected. Ebola spreads very quickly and quietly.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Marvin, TPIV sales price isn't high even for the previous warrant structure to be invoked. TPIV had to lower the warrant exercise price and offer more warrants to sweeten a deal to get the money they need now. How else is a small OTC biotech going to raise money. Dart will return the favor by getting this company exposure and uplist to Nasdaq and yes, he will make a lot of money, but that is how it works. Also, looking at this message board, there weren't any posts by anyone prior to just several weeks to a month ago. You infer you have been a voice on this board for a long time, yet that isn't true. What is your true agenda/problem. To just keep posting the same nonsense, well, we get your position and your theme is worn out at this point.
A reverse may be a strategy by the company to have a higher share price to attract fund managers/investors. Most funds have a $5 minimum share price rule. A lot of investors won't invest in a stock that trades less then $5 or less than $10, so to get the share price higher would be more attractive to the investment community and also reduce the number of shares outstanding. Makes sense if your market cap is high and the share price low. This company already has a fully diluted market cap around $125M right now, today, and it is trading at $1.00. If the news continue to be good and the market cap increases to say $300M, that would be a price per share of $2.40 - not really an attractive price for funds/investors - so if they do a reverse split, say 5 for 1, then the share price would be over $10 and look better.
A Nasdaq listing would open up for more investors and create a better market to move the shares around. Of course the down side is more games by shorts. Will be interesting to see it all unfold in the coming weeks and months.
Your points are well taken. Definitely, compelling P2 data will gain a huge BP partner to fund P3 and beyond including buyout. BP will definitely be watching this one closely or they may even pounce on it sooner because immunotherapy is they latest path development for cancer treatment along with combo therapy. The use for additional indications is also a big deal, but don't forget that also requires more trials, etc - the same long road for each indication. The FDA process is really what is the big disadvantage - too long with too many trials needed before an NDA review. At least they can apply for Fast track and Orphan status to help speed the process, save money and get exclusiveness. The only reason I bring up more funding is that I have so many of these small bios spend lots of money on "running the show" while going through the trial process. It really depends on the management team and how they treat the cash on hand - some like to spend a lot on management salaries and compensation, office space, etc, etc, etc. I hope this team is frugal and keeps there eye on the prize - that's all.
On June 16, 2015, Eastern Capital Limited exercised 5,000,000 Series C-1 warrants to purchase 5,000,000 shares of our common stock ("Shares") in exchange for a total purchase price of $2,500,000. The purchase of the Shares was completed on June 17, 2015. Although the Shares have not been registered pursuant to a current registration statement, we intend to promptly register the Shares along with the other warrants and underlying shares of common stock issued to Eastern Capital Limited and our other institutional investors on August 12, 2014, March 9, 2015 and January 12, 2015, respectively. The Shares were issued pursuant to an exemption from registration under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act.
There are many more other warrants to other institutional investors. FYI - dig deeper into the 10K to get an idea of the fully diluted shares available.
I like your enthusiasm and but when you state that dilution is a non-issue, well, that is not true. Dilution is always an issue and they will need to dilute more down they road - they will need a lot of cash to get to an NDA filing (through P3 trials). Yes, the market cap will rise with success, and that will help lesson the effect of dilution, but successful trial data is the wildcard for now.
Your statement isn't correct. The market cap is higher than the number shown because the outstanding shares that calculate the market cap have not been updated - they are only updated when the quarterly filings/annual filing is made with the SEC - that is when all the financial information is updated including outstanding share changes. Also, the recent warrant conversion into shares are shares that are UNREGISTERED at this time. If you read the PR, it states that the warrants conversions (all of them) are currently unregistered and that the company plans to register all of them very soon. So these shares are not at all included in current market cap valuation. This is why I was asking about the FULLY DILUTED valuation, because these warrant conversions haven't been calculated in analysis of dilution There are also other warrants with other institutional investors that sitting there beyond the Ken Dart warrants. From what I can discern, the fully diluted market cap is closer to $150M right now at $1 per share, which may be a fair valuation given the current known information on the pipeline. Yes, more positive data and P2 data will propel the valuation up, but that may be over a period of time. $1.00 buy in may be safe right now, with downside to 50 cent and upside beyond $1.00. Right now I am having a hard time trying to figure out the current valuation of this company, is the market cap worth $150M right now? or $75M? or ??????? They have said they have more P1 data coming, that should help clear the water some - but the big data readout is P2 and that will be down the road.
Yes, I go by fully diluted value as well, that is what I am trying to establish so I can compare to other similar companies to see if this valuation is still cheap or is it on the mark. My quick calculations came up with fully diluted around $150M right now - I may be over, but at least you have $100M fully diluted and that is in the ball park of what I was getting.
Yes, I am afraid to commit funds at this point - hate being a bagholder while waiting for P2 data readout which will likely be 2 years from now.
I just don't have a clear picture of the dilution (and the science too). I skimmed through some SEC filings and I see a lot of warrants for many institutional investors. I don't know when those warrants become active and the amount of those warrants will cause more dilution. Seems like a fully diluted market cap is already at $150M range given the current price. Many companies fail Phase 2 - not meeting established endpoints, etc. So until there is some more data on actual effect of this therapy beyond safety, I will just watch from the sideline. Phase 2 study will take some time - we don't know how long yet. If the upside potential for market cap is in the multibillions, then there will still be plenty of upside opportunity later even with a market cap at $300M or $600M. ADXS has climbed up in price for months - so the climb can be gradual and not an overnight event. I wish everyone the best of luck. If I had bought at .33, I would just hold this because that cost basis appears to be very safe going forward.
There will still be more potential for upside down the road. Looks like the current share count has now risen by 15M shares, so around 42M shares outstanding, putting the market cap around $44M. Looks like there are a lot more warrants available to convert to raise more cash - which they will need more of (potentially fully diluted upwards of 150M warrants). How long for the P2 trial? - that may be a year for results at best if not more like around 2 years. A little to early for me to invest right now, so I will watch and wait for more information and clearer waters as far as the dilution and results go. Looks like those who followed Sheff in at .33 and sold on Friday are the ones who did quite well in the short term.
Yes, your quick analysis is correct, seems that TPIV is severely undervalued. Obviously many won't take a position until this gets up listed to Nasdaq. I am just trying to figure out the current market cap fully diluted and compare the valuation to similar companies to try and get an idea of the potential upside from here.
So based on the current warrants being exercised, what is the new shares outstanding and current market cap?
I have been following this news for several weeks and am intrigued with the company and pipeline. I have no position at this point as I am still trying get a handle on the current financing deal. Does anyone have a calculation of the fully diluted shares? Obviously with the warrants being exercised, the share count has increased and the market cap that is shown on yahoo at $24M is no longer accurate. What is the current market cap fully diluted?
Any day now for FDA news before end of June.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I am about to add some shares this afternoon, probably right before the close.
Anything can happen in biotech - but I don't think we see $6.00 today, LOL! unless news release hits right before the close. I fully expect some news in the next two weeks though and wouldn't be surprised to see $5.00 sometime before month end.
Conference Call transcript posted on company website stated that they intend to file two more FDA applications for test in the early part of the second half of 2015 - well, the early part of the second half of 2015 is RIGHT NOW. I fully expect that as people are posting about a upcoming news release about these filings - that it could come anytime now. Expect to see $4.50 - $5.00 soon.