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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

will_trade_for_brka 909 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2015 5:49 PM Member since: Aug 2, 2001
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  • Statement from Alibaba Group Business Wire 05:34pm EDT

    Not much of a fine tho'.

  • Loco was more value than anything. Plus, a darn fine concept.

    Yet, following Papa John & Junior for sometime. I feel real good about it. Maybe it goes to $60 again? I don't care... it won't matter as long as I sell some day higher.

    I'm using the AAPL,AMZN,GOOG,NFLX,SBUX,YELP trading philosophy on it.
    #1. Buy a good brand with strong balance sheet & growth
    #2. Buy loyalty... a CEO that owns the majority & pays $250,000 for a Camaro he sold to finance his investment.
    #3. Be innovative, That Pay Share and Digital/Online coupon sweep will put some worry to #2 Dominos.
    #4. Make an excellent product that people will enjoy and talk about.

    Those 4-reasons!

    I like it, I like it BIG TIME!

    You were correct on Papa Murphy's... I never had any position at all in that one, but it did more than double in time when we were jawing about it.

    Place PZZA on your radar screen, don't forget LOCO!

  • Plus, the huge spike in oil lately also isn't positive either.

    I do know they expanded very,very lightly to boost earnings this quarter in my opinion, yet Wall Street will sniff that right out of the 10-Q.

    I'm not so sure we're not in for another double-digit slide after earnings like we had last quarter.

    I could be wrong, but we do know for a fact those patios back east weren't packed with 3' of snow outside.

  • will_trade_for_brka by will_trade_for_brka Apr 17, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    Advancing Issues 524 (17%) 117 (31%) 486 (18%) 91 (39%)
    Declining Issues 2,550 (81%) 238 (63%) 2,160 (80%) 110 (48%)

    Out to do a little mowing.

    You have a nice day now! :-D

  • Poor lil' feller!

    China & Greece has the markets in turmoil today.

  • will_trade_for_brka by will_trade_for_brka Apr 17, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    Wanted to add more BABA, but can't risk everything on the Chinese.


  • Top 15 plus a couple others I like to watch. (Visa just split last month 4:1, the rumor is Netflix might split 30:1)

    Here they are... you can bookmark the list...just put commas after each symbol.

    BRK-A (or BRKA often works)\

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • will_trade_for_brka will_trade_for_brka Apr 16, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    Yes sir! I've got a whole best-selling novel of Biggest Loser investments. I too owned NFLX in the single-digits, also AMZN---Owned PCLN in the 50's, Facebook in the teens, Visa after IPO the list is vast. This investing still is the funnest longest-lasting casino in the world. I remember posting in the AMZN board in something like 2001 or 2002 that I had $60 left over in my account so added 3 more shares of AMZN at market and the board was laughing at me... giving me heck about it and if I owned those extra 3 shares today it would be over $1150! Can't cry about it now... BWaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Scott Dahnke looks like a guy that could rip the balls off Lucifer behind closed doors. Just my personal view.

    I'm happy for the investors at Shake Shack! In fact, I'm happy for all the investors across the whole Food & Beverage sector.

    It's a wonderful thing to see & kudos to them. :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Care to share, truthfully?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • will_trade_for_brka will_trade_for_brka Apr 15, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    I bought a small amount in the $60' 35 shares or something. I bought the majority of YELP at $45. I could of waited a day and got it for $42. I like Yelp a lot. Fun Site... not an Apple or Starbucks. I'm just looking/hoping for a buyout on that one. Maybe Zuckerberg over there at Facebook will make a bid for YELP. Who knows, maybe my huge holding Alibaba by Jack Ma. So, i'm averaged in YELP under $46.

    You're looking for my weakness, so i'll i'll tell you. I own 110 shares of Potbelly at $26! That was a mistake...I'm thinking seriously even right now of selling it, taking my lumps and buying a bond fund DHF...either that or I like Black Oak Emerging BOGSX, but it's a $2k minimum and i'd have to sell a
    little something else and don't want too.

    Stocks I don't like GDDY!!! Thumbs Down

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • will_trade_for_brka by will_trade_for_brka Apr 14, 2015 9:37 PM Flag

    Just wondering & of course you'd have no inside information. I just wondered if you like your job and how your store is doing?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • First off, this will sound like i'm bashing the stock and believe me it's the last thing I want to do as a long-term shareholder of NDLS.

    Yet, as awesome as this business is, and it really is a top-notch, excellent concept with a tremendous future. However, as you've heard me rave over the years about Apple,Amazon, Netflix...Starbucks. There's something you should realize before you sink your entire 401k into this stock.

    That is; Private Equity does own this company. Unlike the few I just mentioned that were founded and still owned by their founder, excluding Steve Jobs at Apple (R.I.P.), the point is; If Arron Kennedy (The Founder) or Kevin Reddy (CEO) still owned this, I'd place my heart & soul into those guys and invest as much as I could in NDLS, because I believe in it.

    Still, and not to scare you, make sure you don't set yourself up with your life-savings here. I personally believe this is why you don't see 7-figure stock purchase and sells daily here. Institutions are guarded about NDLS. Our director Scott Dahnke the managing partner at Catterton (the Private Equity firm who actually owns Noodles & Company), could do whatever they want with this company. Luckily the $230+ million they've got from selling NDLS over the years hasn't cratered the stock to pennies & they still have 13-million shares of NDLS they own.

    All i'm saying is it's anyone's guess what the future holds here as a publicly traded stock. The business is here to stay.

    I'm long-term, for my family it's a fair amount, but a good lunch day for Catterton. Just think about how well Wal-Mart has done over it's history. Owned by the Walton family... There's no Bezos,Reed Hastings or Howard Schultz here. That doesn't mean the shareholders or little guys can't still win.

    Just keep that in mind and let's hope we do see it back in the $20's-$30's-$40's and $50's again in the future.

    Willard, NDLS LONG!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • out there shorted.

    In other news; Noodles & Company will open its first Arizona store at Tempe Marketplace on Tuesday, April 14. :-)!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • that you will come back in 5-years and see how NDLS has performed.

    And it's not just a Domino's thing, search Jack in The Box, Heck search even the perennial loser Darden... Infact, keep typing in restaurant investments, and draw up a 5-year chart. DIN! EAT! YUM! You name it.

    You promise me, today! On April 11th, 2020 you will come back to this message board to talk about Noodles & Company!


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I rarely visit one, but drive by and smile.

    Every 5-hours world wide a new Starbucks opens! Think about that!

    Anyways, enough about SBUX.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'm still living in the 90's. After holding & adding SBUX over the last 25-years...I'm assured that no matter what investment I choose from here on out.

    I can't lose! :-)

    Happy Friday Eve

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • That's a milestone, yet still a very young new concept that really a lot of people around the United States have never heard of. That will change soon enough.

    It's graduation,wedding,baseball season again and the lucrative catering business at $12 per-person will see more growth than it's ever had in my opinion.

    Please, check out all the other restaurant investments. very,very few are trading in the teens. (They once did), as an example I remember not so long ago owning Domino's at $8! The point is, If you have say 100 publicly/otc traded restaurant businesses out there and NDLS is 95% cheaper than the others purely on the price for a share. Who in their right mind wouldn't jump on their stock?

    If the company lost money, was severely in debt, didn't grow,shady leadership. Then the -95% premium compared to others very well could be justified. Yet, that's not the case here. No matter how many bashers come online and claim their Pad Thai,Pesto Cavatappi or Spicy Chicken Caesar wasn't fresh or tasty, when, of course most have never visited a Noodles & Company establishment, well, you need to take that with a grain of salt.

    STAY LONG! (Nobody on this msg board who isn't trying to make money... long or short)


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Learn about Noodles & Company!

    One of the best, most lucrative expansions in the restaurant business since 1995.

    Remember the strength of a business is **NOT the short-term success of their stock.**

    Stay LONG! This is a profitable, growing, excellent business.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • will_trade_for_brka by will_trade_for_brka Apr 7, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Noodles & Co. Is Oversold; Q1 Results Likely Better Than Management Guidance
    Apr. 6, 2015 8:23 AM ET | About: Noodles & Company (NDLS)
    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in NDLS over the next 72 hours. (More...)

    Easy same store comparables provide tailwind for beating low Q1 comp expectations.
    Strong West coast sales seen driving sales strength into Q2. Overly conservative Q1 guidance sets Noodles & Co. up for easy beat on EPS.
    Channel checks show strong growth and success in catering initiatives.
    Focus on low-penetrated key markets and first time customer demand through the new marketing and brand awareness campaigns will drive top-line.
    Latest data from Black Box has restaurant same store sales well above 5% in March.
    Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS) came roaring into the public scene in 2013. The fast casual growth restaurant has traded as high as $40 per share, but has now seen its shares drift below $20 after a lighter-than-expected Q4 2014 earnings release and QTD (February 19th) same store sales.

    The investment community values shares of Noodles & Co. at a 25% earnings growth rate towards the long-term goal of 2,500 units (per the long-term management target) and has done so since the IPO. Steady progress towards this milestone will eventually place the value of this stock at $150-$200 in the long term. Noodles currently has 425 stores and expects ~13% unit growth, 2-4% same store sales growth and 20% earnings growth rate in FY 2015. At the multiples that Noodles has historically traded at since the IPO (using a weighted average), this would put the shares at around ~$22, roughly 30% higher than current levels.

    Shares are currently trading at the discounted valuation due to the company reporting Q4 2014 earnings below analyst expectations. Looking back and reviewing the stock price trajectory, on its Q2 2014 earnings call on August 14th, during its first full fiscal year, the company missed its 25% long-term growth rate and guided to flat earnings growth. A few months later, however, on its Q3 2014 conference call on November 5th, management raised its same store sales growth to 2.5-4% and re-iterated its long-term growth plan of 25% earnings growth (though with a lower range of 20-25%) for FY 2015. This remains the key question in the story of Noodles, will it be able to hit these 2015 targets? There are several key factors to support management's claim and ability to hit these targets.

    Since the last management update in February, gas prices have continued to hold its declines which have buoyed the restaurant sector in the last 4th quarter. With the new marketing drive, Noodles will be better positioned to take advantage of this tailwind than in Q4.

    Mild weather in the Western states during the (of which comprises 1/3 of Noodles & Co. locations) same period vs. last year since February makes Q1 same store sales an easier target than current street consensus expects. Proprietary data from Black Box Intelligence has restaurant same store sales above the aggregate of the retail industry of 3.1% at just over 5% in the month of March.

    Consumer confidence at highs and improving economy makes dining out a more popular option (consumers spending roughly 10% dining out versus last year).

    Commodity costs will provide a lift to bottom-line in 2015. Specifically, protein prices are giving Noodles a boost in margin. Chicken and Beef prices are trending lower heading into Q2; beef prices have dropped over 20% since September.

    Wage inflation risk is less of a concern for Noodles & Co. as costs, which management models likely already account for. Noodles & Co. team members enjoy among the best wages in the industry; below only those of Panera, Chipotle, Panda, and In N' Out on the West coast.

    In addition to the positive Black Box data, our own channel checks of Noodles concepts in key markets show material sequential acceleration, with the San Francisco market leading the way. We believe March may have been the best month for same store sales ever for Noodles, which management would not have seen since they issued Q4 earnings and QTD comps of 1.1% system wide through February 19th, 2015. Furthermore, we do not believe the data seen in March fully encapsulates the new marketing efforts that management cited on its February 19th call. Our marketing checks of Noodles implies the recent strength has been organic. For example, there has been less LTO/Promo offering than we have seen historically (only one ending in on the last weekend) in the period of March. As the marketing campaign gains traction, we believe a material grasp on the Noodles business model will boost demand further. Furthermore, sessions with management at the BAML 2015 Consumer & Retail Conference and the UBS Global Consumer Conference in March were very positive, with key focuses on how initiatives will strengthen demand and drive top line sales through the balance of the year.

    How We Think The Next Few Months Will Play Out

    We believe 1st quarter same store sales will be between 2 and 3%. Note that QTD same store sales through February 19th were 1.1 system wide. Since the call, we have been tracking same store sales at over 5%. Being conservative and rounding down to 5% leads to a 1st quarter system-wide SSS of 3% and EPS of $0.06-0.07 for the 1st quarter, beating street consensus of $0.05. At current levels of management guidance, shares should be valued at $20. With our estimates, shares would be fairly valued at around $22. We believe shares will trade in the low- to mid-$20s when 1st quarter results are released in late April.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

32.62-0.16(-0.49%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT