I will re iterate again what I said regarding a previous spat on the board. We are here to share ideas, good or bad. It is up to us to decide what or what not to invest in. Peripheral emotional issues are irrelevant, as is individual performance. As long as we stick to basics of sharing , this will be stellar board with a lot of expertise and experience to go around.
Gumby, I do have an American wife. Sasol , quoted on NYSE does the oil from coal process. Petrol/ diesel prices regulated by being benchmarked at international norms, plus a hefty local tax.
I think you have enough criminals in gov. Will be delighted to send her to you. One less corrupt person in South Africa. She has been implicated in at least one murder, and many fraudulent activities.
Seeing as none of you can find a new leader, how about Cruz and Palin. That should shake up the world.
Cramer is always late to the party. He is an " entertainer" , not a analysts backside. He does have a following of village idiots.
Oil price still profitable in some areas , ie Eagle Ford, Permian. Not profitable in much of Baken. It's not all doom and gloom.
Very few, if any, upstream oil co's will be able to make up for the share drop, with dividends. At some stage in the far future it may happen.
My largest holdings in value are NAO,KNOP and FLY. All have growth built in for 2015, secure divs . The fact that the recent two months has hammered me, I am still confident in the medium term of recovery in these companies share prices.
Bear droppings, apply for a job with Buffet. With radical new economic theories like yours, I am sure you can get a job as field researcher in a managed care facility.
What you reply got to do with storage? Chickens are reputed to only have a memory of 40 seconds, maybe it applies to some humans as well.
Keebon , I only have one midstream, which is MMLP. In your analysis of mistream, exclude Baken an d Utica. The lowest cost shale producers who are least expected to cut production are in Eagle Ford , Marcellus and Permian areas.
I agree shipping is in a better place for a while. Chinas strategic reserve is at low levels. (clever Chinese), which will be filled with cheap oil. Pickens is a pumper for oil and has no real credibility in my eyes.
I have investments in TNP as a shipper.
I set out below my thoughts on oil prices for what they are worth.
Oil prices will bottom soon and then start rising to a "new Normal" This assumption is based on the following.
1. US shale production growth will slow. New permits issued in Oct fell by 13% and those area that have reported for Nov , show a 40% decline.. In Eagle Ford, and Permian, Two of the lowest cost producing areas in the US show up to a 30% decline in Oct.
2. Offshore development will slow due to obvious economics of the sector.
3.Saudi will continue to play hardball with prices until at least Mch 2015, the date of the next OPEC meeting. This could be enough time to achieve political objectives as far as Russia and Iran are concerned.
4.Smaller, highly leveraged players will fall by the wayside or be bought up. at bargain prices.
My expectations are that oil price will start rising mid 2015 to new lower normal level of $80 to $90 for Brent.
I have no crystal ball, but have a strategy in mind.
Hockey, I am not a CPA , but if the distribution is based on GAAP, earnings, they don't have to pay on losses.As far as the loan repayments are concerned, when one factors in the discount to face value, the saving becomes significant.