I am here because I see a diverse pipeline. On one hand you have the ANDAs- that should make the company profitable over time. None of the individual drugs are huge, but the sum total should generate quite a bit of revenue. On the other you have Rexista and Regabatin. These could be game changers. I really hope more ANDAs are approved so as to be able to finance the development of the NDAs. That is what I see here.
Yes, going into GBM data is much riskier for shorts than it is for longs. Short interest probably increased the second half of January. Should be interesting to see what next reported number is. I have no idea what plan the shorts have for the next six months. I just know my plan is to hold. Two potential big catalysts here:
1. Dosing to progression preliminary results in STS
2. GBM results that exceed everyone's expectations
Remember the short speculation before GBM was announced. They said he would not release any GBM info and the study just goes away quietly like CYTR's last drug-Tamabarotene(or something like that). Now they say he is positively spinning limited data that won't amount to nothing... I was skeptical on GBM and was floored by the recent GBM results. I guess my long position can only lose 100% of my investment. But a short position at $3 that can't cover anything when the market cap goes to 1B or 2B is not a position I want to be in. If for some reason, data is extraordinary this summer on GBM, that is what will happen.
I guess we just see it differently. I personally think they are progressing on the trials. Institutional investment is up over the last year, so I am thinking others are seeing the same I see. The question I ask is if Kriegsman is so disgusting, why did you invest in CYTR in the first place? And maybe you should sell your shares and go short.
My cash is parked as well as I do not have the time to day trade it or swing trade it. My time is worth more than looking at a computer screen all day to grind out pennies. That in conjunction with lying on a message board. In the event of approval in 2017, this will be at least worth 1B market cap. Even if they have to dilute another 25%, at my cost average, I will be ahead many time my original investment. Once again it is a speculative stock that I feel is showing great promise and trials are progressing. The two other speculative stocks I am in are IPCI and ACRX. I also am long GILD.
Paris- Some of the people on the board are parading as longs. They are not. They are swing trading their whole position. You can tell when they sell as they go negative on the stock. They might even be shorting then. I am sure you have noticed this. And if you ever want to see good daily short data, go to short analytics (dotcom). Review the chart there on CYTR, the shorts did indeed really throw shares at this recently to get this chart to breakdown. Volume was low today but short volume was nearly 60%. I suspect they are going to try to keep this under $3 by all means.
telmeafbi- What is your problem? The trials certainly are progressing as management has promised. I understand that Kriegsman is not respected by many. But certainly looking at all the trials progress as well as new ones being initiated, you cannot say there is not progress. I know you say you are long, but you sure have a problem with CYTR management... If ever felt like you did about a companies management(the way you feeel about CYTR) I certainly would not be invested in them. Your posting motives do not seem one bit sincere.
j- You are right. I checked on short analytics (dotcom) and on the day last week when volume was over 125K shares, the short volume was nearly 60%.
Samsa- I agree. He is just using short scare tactics. Guidelines in all industries are always potentially changing. He is basically trying to use that to keep people away. By using that logic, you should not invest in any pharmaceutical company that deals with the FDA. Now how reasonable is that? Also, many other industries are regulated by government agencies as well. By his logic, you should not invest in them as well. Another example would be UL- Underwriters Laboratories is constantly updating their standards. Does that keep people from developing new electrical products? Absolutely not. Keeping abreast of standard changes is part of any business. I am sure, Dr. Odidi is staying on top on any potential changes. I am also guessing any changes by FDA would have a certain range of time prior to having to implement these.
Samsa- I am still here. I agree and think some of the other Focalin doses will receive approval soon. Maybe as early as April. I also think we will see other approvals this year. I also believe there will be other news other than ANDAs that drives IPCI's price per share this year.
Themanf20- Sounds like you are really questioning holding here. Like Samsa said, if you don't have the stomach for it, then consider selling. If you are considering adding, I would recommend waiting. I do suspect we may go a little lower. Looking at a chart, IPCI was trading between 1.60 and 1.80 right before Focalin approval. I suggest waiting until it gets down to there, but then again it may not go that low.
What you state is exactly what many blowhards on this forum fail to realize. They have an R&D facility in Freiburg... I highly suspect Dr. Katz is working on something that may be way bigger than Aldo. CYTR- like other microcap biotech stocks- is a speculative pick. To make the big rewards, you need to buy before the big breakthroughs!
I agree. Michael's tone changed the week the GBM results were announced and the price ran up. Why go negative then? That was a very positive development. I am suspecting he sold his shares at that time and is looking for a better entry point for a trade. i suspect he has no intentions of holding CYTR for anything more than swing trades.
I read through the PR today on the test results and in my opinion they were very forthcoming. As much as guys like Feuerstein will try to say they spun them positively, I did not see that. They listed the additional side effects that were seen as well and indicated those were resolved without issue. It should be interesting to see how far this will be taken down. Lots of talk about $2 again but I see that as unlikely. I think when they quit throwing shares at the this, I think it goes to $4. But that is just my opinion.
Statistical significance is a measure of whether the data generated from a sample population can be relied on. In other words, sampling error can contribute to results that are inconclusive. What I draw from the CYTR STS data is they have two studies that show Statistically significant results that Aldox has better PFS than Dox. They also have two studies that show a trend that Aldox has better OS than Dox. Although they do not have statistical significance in either OS study, they have two separate studies that show a trend in OS improvement. In my opinion, this leads me to believe a study powered to show OS statistical significance would have a good chance at being successful. They also are compiling a great deal of data that shows Aldox has minimal cardiotoxicity. The primary endpoints of the STS P3 study are PFS and cardiotoxicity. The secondary endpoint of that study is OS. Thus, they could likely gain approval without an increase in OS just by meeting the PFS data of Dox and being less toxic. Lastly, I see the dosing until progression to possibly have a twofold effect- it will increase both PFS and OS.