Samsa- I am still here. I agree and think some of the other Focalin doses will receive approval soon. Maybe as early as April. I also think we will see other approvals this year. I also believe there will be other news other than ANDAs that drives IPCI's price per share this year.
Themanf20- Sounds like you are really questioning holding here. Like Samsa said, if you don't have the stomach for it, then consider selling. If you are considering adding, I would recommend waiting. I do suspect we may go a little lower. Looking at a chart, IPCI was trading between 1.60 and 1.80 right before Focalin approval. I suggest waiting until it gets down to there, but then again it may not go that low.
What you state is exactly what many blowhards on this forum fail to realize. They have an R&D facility in Freiburg... I highly suspect Dr. Katz is working on something that may be way bigger than Aldo. CYTR- like other microcap biotech stocks- is a speculative pick. To make the big rewards, you need to buy before the big breakthroughs!
I agree. Michael's tone changed the week the GBM results were announced and the price ran up. Why go negative then? That was a very positive development. I am suspecting he sold his shares at that time and is looking for a better entry point for a trade. i suspect he has no intentions of holding CYTR for anything more than swing trades.
I read through the PR today on the test results and in my opinion they were very forthcoming. As much as guys like Feuerstein will try to say they spun them positively, I did not see that. They listed the additional side effects that were seen as well and indicated those were resolved without issue. It should be interesting to see how far this will be taken down. Lots of talk about $2 again but I see that as unlikely. I think when they quit throwing shares at the this, I think it goes to $4. But that is just my opinion.
Statistical significance is a measure of whether the data generated from a sample population can be relied on. In other words, sampling error can contribute to results that are inconclusive. What I draw from the CYTR STS data is they have two studies that show Statistically significant results that Aldox has better PFS than Dox. They also have two studies that show a trend that Aldox has better OS than Dox. Although they do not have statistical significance in either OS study, they have two separate studies that show a trend in OS improvement. In my opinion, this leads me to believe a study powered to show OS statistical significance would have a good chance at being successful. They also are compiling a great deal of data that shows Aldox has minimal cardiotoxicity. The primary endpoints of the STS P3 study are PFS and cardiotoxicity. The secondary endpoint of that study is OS. Thus, they could likely gain approval without an increase in OS just by meeting the PFS data of Dox and being less toxic. Lastly, I see the dosing until progression to possibly have a twofold effect- it will increase both PFS and OS.
I think these last couple weeks have shown extremely good news for CYTR. Positive events:
1. GBM Results
2. Kaposi Results
3. Partial Hold Lift
4. STS OS Results
Everything is looking good for CYTR but why is the stock down? The shorts are fighting hard. On 1/20 almost 2M shares traded and 53% of those were short sales. Yesterday, 0.75M shares traded and 63% of those were sold short.
I personally feel CYTR will get Aldo approved in late 2016 or 2017. Each added data piece continues to support that. I agree with others that the shorts will probably not cover anytime soon. I can wait. I was in MYGN when they took that down. Lots of shorts still trapped in MYGN and longs made out nicely. I think short interest will be up on 1/15 and up even more on 1/30. Good luck all longs- hang in there!
Last Friday they shorted the heck out of it and the price rose quite a bit. On low volume days they really attack price and can get the PPS down easily. High volume they have no choice but to throw shares at it to keep a lid on it. Short interest will be up quite a bit the next two times its reported.
They are working hard the last couple weeks to keep this down. I am almost thinking short interest will be higher for 1/15 and if things continue to go this way even higher on 1/30. Any opinions on if it goes up or down on the next two reports?
I am busy and did not bother with the Seeking Alpha trash. Sounds like it was a hit piece. More hit pieces to come for sure. Maybe Feuerstein will do one or just allow one of his henchman to take the duty for the time being. I am sure someone will counter with a pump article as well. I am long CYTR because of the results- I feel that Aldox will ultimately replace Dox in nearly all applications. GBM will just be icing on the cake. And hopefully the lab in Freiburg is working on a new linker drug as we speak.
As of 12/15 short interest was 12.5M. On 12/31 short interest was 12.0M(according to Nasdaq). Should be interesting to see where it is on 1/15 and 1/30. I suspect higher.
There is a great website called shortanalytics. It was pointed out to me by Chewy. Check it out. Last Friday 1/16, 57% of the shares traded were short sales! What is disturbing for the shorts is on that day the price rose. Usually higher % short sales push price down. This means the pendulum is swinging. The lowest percentage of short sales for the days between 1/6 and today is 45%. Don't give up! Longs will eventually prevail!
A lot of day and swing traders have been doing pretty good with the big swings and volatility as well.
Yes, you are 100% spot on. They are both shorting and buying at the same time. Just buying a certain percentage more to reduce short position. They have tons of shares to cover. They need to keep the price down. They will do this for a while until they have covered most of their position. Then they will allow this to move up.