the Ricky well, 6 miles SW of Huntsville
That post nails it. There are a number of countries feeling serious pain. They know they must get prices up quickly to support their social programs or face possible internal strife. These low prices will not last long
Google the following article. It is spot on.
"U.S. Well Armed Against Saudis for OPEC Shale Showdown"
Contra, I believe some of these board nuts simply want attention. Their goal is to see how many thumbs down they can get.
My assumption is that the oilers share prices will rise before the price of oil. Big boys will want to get reestablished with stock before letting oil rise
Dvooner. WRONG premise, question is why will world demand increase by 2 to 3 million bbl per day. Its already starting
Google the topic for the complete article but below is the key comment regarding oil and the rising US Dollar being linked
"Yet the good news may not last forever for Asia’s oil importers. According to UBS, the oil price should recover to $100 a barrel, a level that would make further oil exploration viable.
In a recent research note, Morgans chief economist Michael Knox suggests that the oil price “will only stay low while the U.S. dollar is rising.”
“The popular view is that the oil price is falling because of rising oversupply. Were that true, this oversupply would drive inventory levels up. But what we see in the U.S. is that the oil price has been falling where the inventory levels have been falling. This means that there must be some other cause than excess supply causing the decline in the oil price,” he said.
According to Knox, the falling oil price has resulted in “one of the fastest rises in the US dollar since the early 1970s…Once the US dollar ends this major move, the oil price will go back to being driven by normal fundamentals of supply and demand. Our view is that the normal levels of supply and demand suggest a price of Brent oil of more than $100 per barrel.”
Knox argues that this will occur early next year, warning that “those who think that oil prices are going to stay low may be dramatically disappointed.”
For Asia though, the lower oil prices could not have come at a better time."
Google Oil Prices wont stay low forever for full article
But what really drives the oil price? In our view, oil prices are underpinned by the full cost of new production plus a security premium. This premium is influenced by the availability of spare capacity to meet potential supply disruptions (like the recent civil war in Libya or sanctions on Iran).
Oil demand grows slowly by about 1%–1.5% a year. That may not sound like a lot, but meeting this demand growth for about 0.9 million to 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) is no easy task. Unlike most commodities, oil needs intense investment just to keep production flat, because producing fields decline by about 6% a year (or 5.5 million bbl/d). So the world needs new projects to deliver about 6.5–7 million bbl/d of new supply—just to preserve current spare capacity
Additional supply from US shale will help meet some of that demand growth. But we believe new investments in ultra-deep water and oil sands are still needed. According to our analysis, some of these projects require oil prices of at least US$80–90 to be economical.
Gauging Spare Capacity
Spare capacity matters for these calculations. Saudi Arabia controls most of the industry’s spare capacity, which amounts to about three million bbl/d, according to our estimates. That’s not really a lot considering that troubles in a major producer such as Libya, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria or Venezuela could curtail supply by more than one million bbl/d.
It also feeds into the security premium. Consumers are anxious to sustain smooth oil supplies no matter what, and will tend to pay to secure it when capacity is tight—or when there’s a perceived threat to supply. This explains why the oil price spiked in June as ISIS drove on Baghdad. On average we believe the security premium adds about US$10 to prices.
Not everyone will keep drilling but those in the heart of the play will. Also Rockpile is completing wells not drilling so we need to continue to watch that backlog
Sad to see it go but time to move on from a seedling to a strong tree that can withstand the current difficult times. Look forward to owning and watching my Whiting shares grow
The following is from Bloomberg
"The rout in energy stocks reminds Tim Rochford of something else he’s seen in Texas.
“What happened is almost like a herd of cattle, one cow turns left, all the cows follow it and it’s a stampede,” said the 68-year-old co-founder of Midland-based Ring Energy Inc., one of 118 industry executives who bought shares of their own companies in the last month amid the worst losses since 2008.
“This is an absolute fire sale,” he said. “It’s an overreaction and the result is it’s oversold.”
With valuations at a decade low, oil executives such as Rochford and Chesapeake Energy Corp.’s Archie Dunham are driving the biggest wave of insider buying since 2012, data compiled by the Washington Service and Bloomberg show. They’re snapping up stocks after more than $300 billion was erased from share values as crude slipped below $70 for the first time since 2010."
A non violent show of strength.
"A flurry of recent Twitter posts suggests that ISIS supporters in Saudi Arabia may be planning to carry out a rather curious demonstration this weekend. Simply, the scheme would have supporters purchasing normal helium balloons—one can only assume in black—decorating them with ISIS-logo stickers and releasing them at exactly 3 p.m. local Mecca time after Friday prayers. In addition, the supporters are being asked to film a 10-second video of their balloon release and post it with the hashtag #RainInvasion
Translation: In the name of Allah, the “first rain invasion” will be launched in the land of holy places. Cover the sky with the black banner (and make it a penalty to al-Saud).
We will force the dictators of al-Saud to raise their fetid heads and watch the caliphate flag over their heads.
As physically harmless as balloons may be, this call to action may indicate ISIS’ expanding profile inside Saudi Arabia. One of ISIS’ official media wings released a video last week that purported to show the drive-by shooting of a Danish citizen near Riyadh. A month ago, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi addressed his supporters in Saudi Arabia, calling for attacks against the country’s regime."
ISIS is a Saudi creation that will come back to bite them.
How far is Saudi Arabia complicit in the Isis takeover of much of northern Iraq, and is it stoking an escalating Sunni-Shia conflict across the Islamic world? Some time before 9/11, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, once the powerful Saudi ambassador in Washington and head of Saudi intelligence until a few months ago, had a revealing and ominous conversation with the head of the British Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, Sir Richard Dearlove. Prince Bandar told him: "The time is not far off in the Middle East, Richard, when it will be literally 'God help the Shia'. More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough of them."
The fatal moment predicted by Prince Bandar may now have come for many Shia, with Saudi Arabia playing an important role in bringing it about by supporting the anti-Shia jihad in Iraq and Syria. Since the capture of Mosul by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) on 10 June, Shia women and children have been killed in villages south of Kirkuk, and Shia air force cadets machine-gunned and buried in mass graves near Tikrit.
In Mosul, Shia shrines and mosques have been blown up, and in the nearby Shia Turkoman city of Tal Afar 4,000 houses have been taken over by Isis fighters as "spoils of war". Simply to be identified as Shia or a related sect, such as the Alawites, in Sunni rebel-held parts of Iraq and Syria today, has become as dangerous as being a Jew was in #$%$-controlled parts of Europe in 1940.
There is no doubt about the accuracy of the quote by Prince Bandar, secretary-general of the Saudi National Security Council from 2005 and head of General Intelligence between 2012 and 2014, the crucial two years when al-Qa'ida-type jihadis took over the Sunni-armed opposition in Iraq and Syria. Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute last week, Dearlove, who headed MI6 from 1999 to 2004, emphasised the significance of Prince Bandar's words, saying that they constituted "a chillin
ISIS is plotting a balloon party in Saudi Arabia this weekend. Could open some eyes
A flurry of recent Twitter posts suggests that ISIS supporters in Saudi Arabia may be planning to carry out a rather curious demonstration this weekend. Simply, the scheme would have supporters purchasing normal helium balloons—one can only assume in black—decorating them with ISIS-logo stickers and releasing them at exactly 3 p.m. local Mecca time after Friday prayers. In addition, the supporters are being asked to film a 10-second video of their balloon release and post it with the hashtag #RainInvasion