Remember warrants must be exercised within 12 months of the share closing. This will cap the price I think but the option to exercise the warrant closes before production starts. This is actually interesting timing for current shareholders.
Winds predicted to slow nicely on Tuesday and drop dramatically on Wednesday. With the 2 day spare capacity this should not hurt production
The liftings are beginning to show that regularity we have all been waiting for.
I would agree. I do think though after the initial closing the shares could move quickly to the $2 range where the warrants would kick in for the final 35 odd million shares.
"Each Unit consists of one common share of the Company (a "Share") and one-half of one common share purchase warrant (a "Warrant"). Each whole Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one Share from the Company at a price of C$2.00 per Share for a period of 12 months following Closing."
Looking at the consensus out there. What is the likely hood that Rubicon needs to raise addition funds to get the mine in operation and if they do would that be in new shares?
Good points. One thing to consider. When I spoke with the company several weeks back they indicated that the test wells are going below the Eaglebine all the way down to the Glen Rose. Each section is being individually flow tested as they work their way back up the well. If there is something there EOG is taking the methodical steps to find the good stuff and solidify the potential.
I see positive signs but I don't see us small guys knowing anything definitive for several months yet.
Honestly the only reason I know KOG is they told us exactly what they were doing. I have not looked so I don't know if the other companies have made this reserve calculation as transparent.
Key point is Kodiak is being very conservative in their reporting and they have TOLD EVERYONE just how conservative they are being. I Like that a lot
Lets also note the proved undeveloped reserves are based on the forward looking 5 year drilling plan. If the number of wells to be drilled goes up then so does that proved undeveloped number
For the uneducated posters market cap/enterprise value ultimately tracks reserves and PV10.
KOG is legal allowed by the SEC to state their reserves and PV10 roughly 50% higher than they have done. Consider that closely when looking at the current share price.
This means the total reserve booking right now could legally being over 50% higher than reported. PV10 could be stated over 5 billion per SEC rules
From the transcript
"As a reminder, our total proved reserves increased by 77% to 167 million barrels of oil equivalent from the end of 2012 and now calculates to a pre-tax value of approximately $3.5 billion using a 10% discount factor.
That’s a long way from the $4.5 million barrel of oil equivalents we had at the beginning of 2010. Since then, we’ve demonstrated nearly a 150% growth compounded annually. As for the make up of the proved reserves, about 46% of reserves are developed and 54% are undeveloped as of the end of the year.
Our methodology for booking these undeveloped locations involve bringing out our operated drilling schedule and then, adding in a non-operative locations for wells that have been proposed or committed.
In the end, this totaled about 400 gross locations, of which about 270 are operated, which equates to about 2.5 years of drilling at a current pace. Although, we believe our acreage is largely derisked, and we could book far more locations up to the five-year horizon, allowed under SEC rules, we chose to limit our PUDs to match our current plan and not get too far ahead of ourselves.
In the same vein, as we get more history on our infill wells, we think we should see improved per well reserves for those wells. As we’ve mentioned earlier on, and we haven't seen much change in production down-space test, so we believe that we will get some upside to these wells as compared to the current bookings."
Re Brent, remember that these guys sell a big chunk of Bakken oil to the east coast where they compete with Brent pricing