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Alpine Global Premier Propertie Message Board

winmore_98 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2014 7:15 PM Member since: Aug 25, 1998
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  • winmore_98 by winmore_98 Aug 19, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    When AFOP gets a buyout offer will the shorts sh**? This small cap tech related company, with a handful of big cap customers, is a sitting duck waiting to be picked off the public market by one of its customers or competitors. An offer will blow it out of the water into the sky and no one can say no. Maybe that's the plan all along? It has been round and round the mulberry bush, up to 22 and down and up again and down. Eventually pop goes the weasel.

  • Reply to

    I think we get a floor here

    by rpbossman Aug 15, 2014 12:28 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 18, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Yes. Weird colder weather in August portends a colder winter leading to increased energy demand just to stay healthy and warm. Six months away from that event so no one's looking.

  • Reply to

    Fiscal 6 month review - ETY - some interesting data

    by mike57dk Jul 10, 2014 12:54 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 17, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    I looked at Y-charts and saw the total return. Thank you.
    I tried Dividend Channel and could not find total return, but it did have very good info. Thank you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Still not interested in loading the boat

    by zebra887 Aug 5, 2014 11:15 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 12, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    Yes,
    48.1% metals & mining
    37.8% energy & energy services
    but who's counting ;^)

  • Down 2% in pps after announcing record high production.
    Has production hit its peak? Do we need gas and oil energy anymore?

  • Reply to

    Anybody besides me

    by forwardflash Aug 11, 2014 8:21 AM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 11, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Yes. If you set a stop loss, the 'computers' see it. If enough stop loss orders pile up, it can attract attention. Conclusion? Don't key in a stop loss order. Set a mental one if you need one. Keep eyes open via mobile app. Don't ask the 'droids steal your shares of company ownership with stop loss orders.

  • winmore_98 by winmore_98 Aug 11, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    Using the formula [capitalization + debt] / [boed x 365] gives a ratio of the enterprise cost per boe where the lower the ratio the better value among peers.
    BTE 245
    MRO 236
    PGH 178
    ERF 146
    PWE 142
    Just one of a few metrics to figure value for investment purposes.
    Another one uses [capitalization + debt] / [proved/probable boe] again the lower the ratio the better value when comparing; however, one must compare oil to oil, or gas to gas, or ~50/50 as in the following list:
    PVA 16.47
    HK 46.76
    EOG 32.70
    ENRJ 13.82
    CRZO 29.36
    APA 16.72
    ROSE 16.95
    ERF 14.21

    ERF stands out as a great value.

  • Reply to

    BDC earnings..

    by covadlegal Aug 6, 2014 5:41 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 9, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    Past is not prologue. Investors ruin caused by rear view mirror focus. Do you really want to pay 33% premium to NAV for past performance?

  • Reply to

    Quarterly Results

    by bananahouse171 Aug 7, 2014 5:03 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 9, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Going forward I see no gain in hedging. If solar scientists are right, we are in for some colder and longer winters. Oil and ngas demand will rise as will pricing power. Save the effort and expense of a hedging program. Take on the risk of a spot market and watch investors flock to the stock. Investors like no-hedged stocks when they see pricing power in the commodity.

  • Reply to

    Still not interested in loading the boat

    by zebra887 Aug 5, 2014 11:15 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 7, 2014 5:30 PM Flag

    GGN has traded for a discount but not as often as many other closed end options writing funds. Investors are willing to pay a slight premium for GGN for the service they provide writing options in the gold mining sector.

  • Reply to

    Too good to be true

    by clidinho1 Aug 5, 2014 8:55 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 6, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    So if it's too good to be true then it is not true? How do you determine if "it is too good". Compared to peers? Do you want a company with more debt? There are plenty of those out there. With good financials you'd think investors could be more patient. So you took a small profit. Next time more patience will make more profits.

  • Is this stock making any sense?
    Is the 'dead-cat' made of rubber?
    Maybe made of market anti-matter.
    Does it matter?
    Got long @16

  • Reply to

    Strangest stock action

    by fear_the_shocker Aug 4, 2014 3:00 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 4, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    The shorts are playing this stock big time. However, the slick shorts will take profits soon. A low PE, no debt load, growing revenue company stock makes it risky for shorts to pay interest in that position.
    BTW - If you don't use margin to trade stocks then change your broker account to 'cash' so they cannot borrow your shares and sell them short. Choke off the short sales at the margin.

  • Reply to

    just the facts

    by winmore_98 Aug 4, 2014 10:43 AM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Aug 4, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    You asked some good questions. Here's the published facts: They design, manufacture and market a range of fiber optic components and integrated modules for the optical network equipment market. The first two words tell me they are not a middleman with just sales. Their product line comprises active and passive optical components and includes interconnect systems, couplers and splitters, thin film DWDM components and modules, fixed and variable optical attenuators.
    They produce Micro Optics products that include optical circulators, isolators, power monitors and pigtailed photodiodes. Each of these devices incorporates micro filters and crystals that perform specific optical functions. Optical circulators are non-reciprocal devices that redirect light from port-to-port sequentially in only one direction. Optical isolators are devices use polarization rotation to block return signals from the forward optical path. They limit distortions in devices and signals caused by reflected lights in the fiber. Integrated Power Monitors are designed for monitoring optical power in dense wavelength division multiplexing systems and Add/Drop modules. Pigtailed photodiodes are designed for optical power monitoring applications where a discrete component is needed for integration into dense wavelength division multiplexing systems, Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Modules, or Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifiers.

    You can try asking specific questions to the IR department. They have a web form to send.

  • winmore_98 by winmore_98 Aug 4, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    FNSR .36 per share earnings on 306 million revenue 19 handle stock price
    AFOP .32 per share earnings on 24 million revenue 13 handle stock price
    JDSU .13 per share earnings on 437 million revenue 11 handle stock price
    CLFD .09 per share earnings on 14.3 million revenue 13 handle stock price
    OCLR -.20 per share loss on 95 million revenue $1.89 stock price

  • winmore_98 winmore_98 Jul 31, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    Yes, more must be said. The debt/gold relationship has not correlated well lately. And check out a chart of the GLD with GGN and say ouch. Meanwhile, gold has not run much compared to the debt, they have disconnected. Which could be good, as "the Fund will attempt to achieve its objectives by investing 80% of its assets in equity securities of companies principally engaged in the gold and natural resource industries, and by writing covered call options on the underlying equity securities." So if the GDX runs up too fast the underlying stocks of GGN could get called and GGN misses the run up. A better market would be more steady, less called stock., options expire and GGN writes more at a good price, keeping the income for its shareholders.
    Meanwhile, a GGN chart tracks closer to the SLV then the GLD. So it isn't really about gold is it?

  • Reply to

    It is coming back!

    by fistgrabber77 Jul 31, 2014 4:00 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Jul 31, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    Nice bids for AFOP on a bad ticker day, it bodes well for the next round.

  • Reply to

    Give it a week

    by winmore_98 Jul 30, 2014 10:08 AM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Jul 30, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Today had a nice 3% swing from open between the low and close.

  • Reply to

    Cenovus up on SAGD! Pengrowth down again?

    by mister_g2 Jul 30, 2014 1:06 PM
    winmore_98 winmore_98 Jul 30, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    IMHO the market is reacting to the PWE audit which has nothing to do with other companies operating in Canada, but it hurts the group.

  • winmore_98 by winmore_98 Jul 30, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    to settle down, up , down, up... then load up for the next run back to the 20's
    Business is good, investors are nervous, normal swing trades here.

AWP
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