" Once (land based) storage is filled, excess production will hit the spot market, forcing down prices."
No, spot prices drop enough to allow the expense of floating storage and excess production continues awhile longer.
"Why does Carl Icahn keep buying up Chesapeake Energy? and Really Big Insider Buying in Chesapeake Shares, why???"
Because in a sector full of risky bets, CHK is reducing debt and making itself a safer play for the future.
Before it can begin to rise again, it's going to have to stop falling. An aranian settlement will further extend the down trend into 2016. The world economy is going to have to do an unusually rapid bounce up to accomplish the oil price recovery you speak of.
Yes, but increased demand will give the oil producers more breathing room to cooperate with each other and allow prices to rise. Falling demand was leaving producers with not enough revenues to get by. The situation put them into conflict with each other and a price war broke out. Increased demand fixes all that.
I may not understand everything about BK...and surely it would be bad for shareholders. But from the companies standpoint, bankruptcy would seem to be purely beneficial. They dump a ton of debt, plus labor contracts if they choose. And after they liquidate their shareholders, they get to raise more cash with a stock offering.
If we consider that the institutions represent the "smart money", then it suggests one of two things.
1) Small investors as we have here, are not being foolish in their belief that coal will recover.
2) Coal will recover, but only so far in the future that any small investor will be long dead. But the institution has a longer time frame.
My theory is that so many of the coal stocks have been hammered to the point that BK is assumed. But the stronger stocks like BTU have had their share prices hold up better. Obama's latest anti-coal measure can't really hurt the stocks that have already been hammered to a presumption of bankruptcy. But BTU was presumed to be one of the eventual survivors...until this final blow. Its not that BTU will be all that effected by the measure, but investors are seeing that this administration is not yet done hammering this sector. Sot BTU falls because of a presumption that even they might not survive.
If Obama was proposing to fund research into fusion or other technologies that would cut carbon emissions without crippling growth, I'd be inclined to be less suspicious of his motives. But, he only supports technologies like wind and solar that show no promise of being energy intensive enough to be a basis for industrialization. I don't think that Obama personally cares about the "Green" agenda, but to raise the funds needed for his presidential campaighs, he sold out to these groups. Any successful run for president is built on a foundation of special interest groups. In Obama's case, his campaign was built on a foundation of cash from the Greens, isolationists, race baiters, socialists and overseas groups that want to see America's influence in the world rolled back.
The GOP seems to feel that politically it makes more sense to keep a low profile and score big in the next election. The public is sick of all politicians right now. And anyone starting a fight will take the blame for setting it off.
The people that are pushing the Global Warming proposition don't believe it any more that the rest of us. But they are alarmed that the industrialization of China and other second world countries is reducing the pristine quality of the planet. They live comfortable lives in their "First World" countries, but they don't want to see any increase in industrial activity that will allow poor nations around the world to drag themselves out of poverty. What they are doing is selfish and evil. To the extent their scheme succeeds, the world will have less growth and more poverty, war and misery. They are foolishly evil people.
"When was the last time people in Cape cod seen ice bergs wash up on their beaches? I bet thats unusual too."
My dad grew up in Nova Scotia and the ocean did not commonly freeze up, but every summer they would see chunks of ice float by the beach where they swam. And I can tell you from personal experience that that was the coldest swimming beach that I have ever swam at. But my real point here is that the water did not commonly freeze up there.
As I see it, the real potential of this deal with Rosneft is that there could be follow-on deals where Rosneft would convey other fields for working by NADL. If so, there could be more revenue coming out of those old fields that anyone has anticipated. And Rosneft is going to have the incentive to make these deals with NADL because Rosneft will own a piece of NADL.
My understanding is that NADL took over the leases on the drilling rigs as well as assumed rights to work the oilfield. That would be the most logical arrangement. Rosneft cant convey ownership to rigs that they don't own. So NADL assumes payments on the leases.
" exchanging 30% of the company for some sketchy Russian land-based drilling rigs. I just smell a ripoff."
My thinking is exactly opposite of yours. The Russians are notorious for mismanaging their oilfields. A lot of oil was left in the ground that could be extracted using the new "tight oil" technology. The outstanding potential in NADL was the potential earnings locked in those old oilfields.
I tend to think that there is going to be a long time before coal prices recover. This because there is too much capacity that has been taken of line and will come back as demand rises. There is going to be a long time before demand begins to outpace the ability of the industry to keep up with new supply.
history...I know, I kept scratching my head wondering how Joy Global, Caterpillar, and Deere were performing so much better than the underlying companies that they sell to.
More coal is being mined than ever. It's just that the industry had ramped up to meet demand that never materialized after 2008. Coal sales are somewhat up. Coal prices are very down
I toured a coal mine on a seam where my father worked as a young man in Nova Scotia, Canada.. Some recollections:
1) Parts of the mine went out under the ocean and the seam was less than 5 feet high. So the workers had to stoop all day.
2) My Dad had one of the best jobs in the mine. Before the start of each shift, a small crew of men had to disassemble the conveyor machinery (The pan) and move the machinery up to the face of the coal seam. Otherwise, as the men worked they would have to walk unfeasibly longer distances to dump their coal loads. The problem was that you have to pull out the roof supports to move the Pan forward and restore them as quickly as possible. And as you dither, the roof is creaking down bit by bit. The work is physically taxing and dangerous and must be done at top speed. So these jobs go only to the strongest, smartest men in the mine. Additions to the crew, because of the danger had to be voted on by the rest of the "pan shifter" crew. The incentive for a miner to go after that job was that for less than an hours work, you were paid a days pay. And if you chose to, you could work the coming full shift and go home with two days pay.
3) Practically everyone in that town had a coal mine in their back yard because the coal seam there was so close to the surface. So every kid grew up starting his mining career about the age of ten. Every week your parents would send you into a hole in the back yard to fetch some coal for heating and cooking. About 98% of the men in this town would end up working in the mines all their lives. My uncles worked there in the summers to earn money needed for college.
4) On payday, a young man still living with his parents would turn his pay over to his mother and she would give him an allowance as she saw fit. Your parents were your banker for your college savings. One uncle had no interest in college, but when he moved out of his parents house, he was able to pay cash for his first house.
The only way capturing the carbon is of any value is if it is guaranteed forever. If it re-releases into the atmosphere after 50 years, then the value of the capture is a disaster. I can't think of a capture method that would reliably capture that carbon forever, unless they intend to go to the expense of making the carbon into diamonds.
I see corruption in both parties. The GOP has put everything up for sale to the highest bidder among the business interests. They should go to jail for this. But within the Democratic party they are placing things up for sale to foreign interests...and the name for that is treason.
"I would imagine they voted it down because fantastical conspiracy theories are tiresome."
That Putin poured money into the campaign chest of The former president of the Ukraine is, I would say, a fact to any that have followed the story.. That Putin poured cash into campaigns in the other former Soviet states is self-evident to anyone reading the news reports coming out of one after another of these states.
Bill Clinton had a Chinese man who was "bundling" campaign contributions of the sort that did not need to be declared as to the donor...anonymous cash given to the party with an earmark for a specific candidate, as I recall. When a warrant was issued for his address, he fled the country.
You seem to find it incredible that one nation would use campaign contributions to effect an election in another country. Take a look at the Drudge website today where there is a story that a Senate panel is investigating if Obama used campaign contributions to knock out Bibi Netanyahu in their coming election.