It's not that I believe this stock is going to go to zero. It's that I believe there are going to be better prices to buy it at. I kick myself that I believed the flippin Russkies would be sensible and resolve this situation at the first opportunity. But of course they are not the only problem with this stock. I concede I jumped in too soon and paid a price. But I don't see any reason to take large losses and have to wait to recover my capital. Recognize your mistakes and wait for a better entry point further down. I don't subscribe to the theory that the big dividends soften the impact of losses while you wait on recovery.
It's always graceless to throw back an I-told-you-so response to people who bite at your heels on these boards. I try to avoid it. But the present situation is one that can be a good lesson to us all. When I spoke to Jackmaster about limiting losses with stoplosses, I got the following responses from some of the wise heads here.
deadairez • Nov 6, 2014 7:33 PM
I never set stops. The shorts routinely try to trigger them, then cover.
daicheng0722 • Nov 9, 2014 2:33 PM
Stops are for cowards and lemons
jackmaster20 • Nov 9, 2014 5:47 PM
......and prudent risk managers, who usually are the long term
successful winners in security investing.
As I mentioned, I bought in at $5.61 and was quickly stopped out with a small loss. NADL has continued to wind down, capped with a 13% loss just so far today Had I bought and held, I would be sitting on a 24% loss right now.after only 8 days. This should be a lesson learned.
It occurs to me that the US ban on exporting crude oil works to the benefit of the Saudi's. They can flood the US market with cheap oil to suppress US fracking production. And the US producers don't have the option of exporting their fracked oil to pursue the higher international price for oil. Our export ban is allowing the Saudi's to war against the frackers and knock that production out. Without this US export ban, the Saudi's would have had to lower the price of oil world-wide to suppress the US fracked oil.
Somehow I figure the Obama administration understands the economics here and is not really against having the Saudis come into the US and suppressing oil production...that is what this president has been about: Suppressing coal production, suppressing oil pipelines, and now allowing the suppression of our oil production.
"The Saudi want to be the dominate power in that area."
I'm inclined to agree more with Jack. The Saudi's are not trying to take over, but they understand the Iranians dearly want to become the Regional hegemon (That's the "Big Dog" to most of you guys here.) This is why Saddam's Iraq attacked them when they fell into revolutionary disorder during the Carter administration. This desire to dominate the region is why they want the "bomb".
Foo, I'm not sure if I'm understanding you. I've checked, and the article I've read says it was Rosneft's option. And as I see it they had two good reasons for canceling the deal. First, sanctions make it impossible to proceed right now. And secondly, the cash part of the deal calls for Rosneft to pay $9+ for the shares in NADL.. And NADL shares have come down quite a bit since that agreement..because of oil prices.
I'm not sure how it would have worked if Rosneft had pressed to close on the deal. Maybe they would have been immediatly litigating because NADL could not perform as agreed. The fact that they did agree to push back the closing date lets us know that both were in agreement to do that. NADL would have had to agree to extend Rosneft's option. And the Russians being tough negoiators, they might have also secured a new strike price around the $5.50 NADL trades at today. Or not, because both likely view the deal as beneficial as it was originally negoiated.
Correction: The intend to pursue a 50% controlling interest. Se Below
Sat May 24, 2014 12:33pm EDT
ST PETERSBURG, Russia/OSLO, May 24 (Reuters) - Russia's
Rosneft could buy a controlling stake in the world's largest offshore driller, Norway's Seadrill, after saying it was in talks to acquire a significant stake in Seadrill subsidiary North Atlantic Drilling.
The announcement comes as Rosneft and North Atlantic Drilling signed a cooperation agreement on Saturday, one of several deals announced by Russia's largest oil firm during the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, showing the keenness of multinationals to do business with Russia despite tensions over Ukraine.
The agreement gives him access to the Russian exploration market on a large scale.
"The agreement contemplates Rosneft acquiring a significant stake in North Atlantic Drilling Ltd. with the latter entering Russia's onshore drilling market, and signing of long-term contracts for onshore and offshore drilling," Rosneft said in a statement on Saturday.
Separately, Rosneft boss Igor Sechin told the Rossiya 24 TV channel his firm could take a stake of up to 50 percent in Seadrill over time, suggesting Fredriksen may further expand his reach in Russia.
"We're becoming Seadrill shareholders. At this stage we're discussing combining our service company RN Bureniye with Seadrill and handing it some of our orders. In time we could increase our stake to 50 percent,"
My personal fear is hearing the guy at Rosneft say that their intention is to one day own all of SDRL. Presumably, they intend to buy up all the shares. But if the ever come to own a controling interest, I would be concerned they would engage in some sort of chicanery to screw over shareholders. These are the Russians after all.
Folks here are seeing the Rosneft business as a negative..as if it is blocking them from the pursuit of other business. But the whole value here is that this is_extra_business. Setting up NADL with a 30% ownership by the Russians gives them an incentive to give all this rig business to NADL. JF has cleverly given the Russians an incentive to give him all their business. Very smart.
Some people here talk about how JF has given Rosneft a 30% cut of NADL for a lousy few drill rigs. Go back and look at the details of the deal. NADL is getting ownership of an oilfield in Russia. They don't say, but I believe that it is in need of fracking technology. I can't quantify the value of that deal, but I have to believe it could be huge.
Too many here are impatient that the current impass with the Russians is weighing on NADL a little harder than the situation of the rest of the industry. But the way we all should be looking at it is that the Russian impass is factored into the price. If that situation ever resolves, it will be all gravy for NADL. If it does not resolve, NADL pursues its other options.. It is not an either or proposition.
I could be wrong, but I feel like the Russians need for a resolution is so urgent that we could see a very quick agreement.
NADL was weak today also. Both likely suffering from reports of Russia's rolling into Ukraine ahead of seperate talks next week with the Europeans and with the US. The Russians just can't help themselves. They desperatly need release from sanctions as their economy and currency are reeling. But they feel the need to be menacing rather than demonstrating their goodwill.
The news today of Russia moving forces into Ukraine should logically be weighing on NADL because this discord could disturb the business relationship between NADL & Rosneft. Though I see the stock of NADL is mostly calm today. But I think the markets understand the situation in a crystal clear way. Russia has two sitdowns next week with European and then US leaders. And as the Russians are want to do, they are making a display of muscle today. But what everyone knows is, Russia needs to come away with a peace agreement next week. Their economy, their currency is on the verge of collapse. So this display today in the Ukraine today is meaningless. An agreement is at hand.
I didn't want to influence anyone with my original post...but my reason for taking a position two days ago was I was anticipating the "cancel" date with Rosneft was going to be pushed back. And I figured when that happened NADL was going to get a nice bounce because concerns about a cancellation would be relieved. Well it was announced today that the cancel date has been pushed back by mutual consent. What is annoying however is that two hours from the close NADL is down a tiny amount for the day. It would seem that I was not the only one anticipating that Rosneft would not be canceling the deal. I went from thinking I was incredibly cunning to feeling like the outcome was totally obvious. Oh well.
No, I still have half my position to buy. And frankly, I will stop out if it nosed down too hard. I'm not one to hang in for heavy losses.
I'm at a loss to explain my reasons for acting, but yesterday I opened my first medium-sized position in NADL at $5.61. I can give you a bunch of things that make me nervous about this stock: The unsettled price of oil, the unsettled relations with the unpredictable Russians, and the outlook for world economic growth. But this is a throughly beaten down stock with an intriguing upside. Oil may go a little lower in the near term, the Russians may get a little meaner in the short term. But I'm betting on a return to normalcy. This is a considerable act of faith on my part, since I have to recognize that there are madmen at the helms of both the US and Russia.
As I see it, the attraction of a high dividend falls off above 10% for the simple reason that above 10% it becomes increasingly implausible, for the long term, that the company can sustain that dividend. Paying more than 10% gives investors pause because they become concerned about taking a hit on the stock price when the div must inevitably be cut. So a dividend above 10% benefits this company very little.
Dioing business with the Russians remains a very profitable potential But of course, these are some very trecherous people. If anyone is capable of pulling off this balancing act it will be JF. IF he thinks the Russians cam be managed, I would trust his judgment. But if JF bails on SDRL, I would want to be right behind him.
They did recently reconfirm them as they entered in the the talks in Italy. But I don't recall if the need to be reconfirmed say in 2015.
I think you are right that they were drawn into Ukraine by the need to recover that naval base. Otherwise, they would have been better off to avoid all the old liberated states. Putin needed to operate below the radar in his European charm offensive. He did not need any alarms being raised in states that had earlier been under the Russian boot.
Putin and his Kinder, Gentler Russia-Pt 4
Crimea. When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
And that is where we stand today, with Putin’s charm offensive in tatters…with Europe fully awakened and alarmed…with Russia staggering under sanctions and dim prospects for Putin being able to put his charm offensive back in play. He surely must realize that he was the wrong guy to try to pull off such an audacious con. But more than ever before, Russia today is run by thugs. And the country is sliding into a worse and worse economic condition. They no longer have the strength to conquer Europe, and likely never did have that strength. But, more and more Russia needs to possess Europe to survive. It’s not clear if they could possess Europe without crushing that which makes it so valuable as an ally. Theirs is a desperate situation. And raises the possibility that the wrong man at the top in Russia could miscalculate out of desperation. Putin and his stratigists are likely putting in long hours reassessing their options in salvaging something from this debacle.