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CBRE Group, Inc. Message Board

winomaster 18 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Aug 11, 2006
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  • Reply to

    NADL Has Very Unique Product

    by borisiam Sep 15, 2014 9:47 PM
    winomaster winomaster 18 hours ago Flag

    It occurs to me that sanctions are pressuring the West more than Russia. Europe has to know that sanctions could easily rebound on them in the guise of nat gas supply interruptions. And, of course, sanctions are throwing gas on the troubles of business interests of SDRL & NADL. Russia, on the other hand can easily ride out a near-term that is so excruciatingly difficult for the West. A delay of a few months in starting the development of russian off-shore resources is no crisis for them. For this reason, I imagine the Russians will not be overly conciliatory in the near-term. The politics of the situation suggests to me that it will be the West driving the resolution...that it will be one that leaves the Crimea in Russian hands...and that there may be an agreement to have no NATO troops on Ukraine soil...or some other significant concession to the security conscious Russian consciousness.
    Coming away from this crisis, the Russians have a real problem. Threats against European gas supplies are counter-productive to Russian business interests. Europeans have been being enticed to get into bed with the Russians by gas supplies offered somewhat below market rates. But they could be forgiven, coming away from this incident, if they felt the urge to diversify their nat gas supplies. So, perhaps the ultimate resolution of the crisis wraps that issue in also. The current situation has to be deeply dissatisfying to both sides. So maybe the resolution is going to have to address a whole raft of issues...suggesting that this matter will not be resolved by year-end. Both sides are likely thinking hard about what an acceptable resolution will look like. But as long as hard words are being exchanged, you should expect that there is no real negotiation begun.

  • Reply to

    This is heading to $2-3 range

    by listen_jockers Sep 18, 2014 7:10 PM
    winomaster winomaster 19 hours ago Flag

    "Not that easy for JF to decide ........."

    Maybe not. The Russians know exactly what they are willing to do to resolve the sanctions. So, JF could well know if there will be an end to this crisis. JF likely has very good knowledge of what the Russians will do. If we see JF recharter the rig intended for the Russians, I think we can assume there will be no near-term resolution of the crisis. Unless there is another rig coming in that has no associated contract. Anyone know more about these things?

  • Reply to

    Fredriksen and GLNG

    by longstreet_the_shortseller Sep 20, 2014 10:47 AM
    winomaster winomaster 23 hours ago Flag

    If I was JF right now, I think my strategy would be to sell off shares in GLNG because they are fully priced. I would do this to raise the cash to throw into SDRL because it currently is available at bargain prices. On a negative note, he has an incentive to cut the dividend just before he begins accumulating these new shares. This would allow him to get both the quantity of shares and the attractive price that he would like.

  • Reply to

    What are we dealing with here?

    by chap34110 Sep 20, 2014 9:41 AM
    winomaster winomaster Sep 20, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    I'm wondering if I am understanding things correctly. Am I to believe that demand for rigs is impacted by a lowering of the price oil is selling at? So at this price it will require some amount of time (12-18 mo?) to work down a rig surplus. Some Thoughts:
    1) Oil prices can change in the blink of an eye. So, in reality, oil pricing might resume higher levels in a month and demand for rigs would be right back.
    2) I can see by prices at the gas pump that oil prices must be down some of late. Maybe 7% judging by gas prices. But is this enough to effect the plans of drillers?
    3) If offshore drillers are pulling back with their drilling plans...why do I not hear anything about the shale wells pulling back. They have a higher production cost. They should be effected sooner and harder. Seems like the contraction in rigs deployed should be in shale rigs, not deepwater rigs.

  • Yahoo has a page where they project that NNA is expected to have a 15% annual growth over the next 5 years. I'm trying to figure if they mean that their_assets_are expected to grow 15% annually, or if they are expected to grow_profits_by 15% annually.

  • winomaster winomaster Sep 19, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    The historical low of about two years ago was about $2.25 I have a hard time believing that that low could be tested. The fundamentals have improved so much since. But what explains this return to these levels?

  • What, no wringing of hands, curses under the breath or muttering about them dang shorts? I have money to put into this stock. Anyone have any opinions where NNA will bottom?

  • winomaster winomaster Sep 16, 2014 3:49 AM Flag

    Thanks. You're right, Met coal is a pretty significant part of BTU's mix.

  • winomaster winomaster Sep 16, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    What percent of production is met coal?

  • Reply to

    NNA vs NMM

    by winomaster Sep 15, 2014 2:22 PM
    winomaster winomaster Sep 15, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    My confusion, NMM is not a holder of tankers but rather dry bulk and container. They also have quite a number on long term charters. Long term charters mean they make a better return in a down market, but when rates go up their profit increase is crippled. Assuming they have profit sharing, they benefit only half of the surge in rates.

  • winomaster by winomaster Sep 15, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Compare these two stocks and you see NMM is up 35% and NNA is down 15%. What makes for this difference?

  • winomaster by winomaster Sep 15, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Use the chart "Compare " feature of this site and you see these too companies have charted a starkly different course this year. TNK is up about 50% and NNA is down about 15%. Anyone have any insight into why this is so?

  • Reply to

    Unable to Make an Operating Profit...

    by play_tow Aug 19, 2014 9:44 AM
    winomaster winomaster Aug 29, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    "...they are generating cash flow to cover their dividend."
    " I guess if ones goal is a steady 6% yield, then NNA isn't the worst choice."

    NNA is not paying a true 6% return. When a company is losing money, but still paying a dividend, the effect is that the value of the company is reduced by the cost of the dividend. So, even if NNA's prospects were unchanged during 2014, the value of the company still falls by the 6% dividend paid. So the dividend is, in truth, just a "return of capital." Those of you who are comforting yourselves with the idea that at least you are getting a nice dividend...well, you are just playing a fools game.

  • Reply to

    Looks like the selling has exhausted.

    by lakers_fan919 Aug 8, 2014 3:50 PM
    winomaster winomaster Aug 9, 2014 1:24 AM Flag

    Not having a current position in this stock, I have the luxery of being able to look at this stock without having my vision clouded by emotion and hope. Therefor, I can say almost certainly Monday will be a down day. I'm not claiming any psychic powers or tips from the divine. Lets call it a hunch.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looks like the selling has exhausted.

    by lakers_fan919 Aug 8, 2014 3:50 PM
    winomaster winomaster Aug 9, 2014 1:11 AM Flag

    I don't see that this is a reversal unless the broader market itself is in a reversal. Buyers on Friday were likely covering shorts in case the market was beginning a multiday run-up. One good day does not mean all the bad days are behind us.

  • winomaster winomaster Aug 8, 2014 4:55 AM Flag

    Whoops, my lame joke above makes no sense with the Spamblaster name that this board insists on making my default name. Spamblaster = Winomaster.

  • Reply to

    Here's why NNA is tanking

    by domwino Aug 7, 2014 2:08 PM
    winomaster winomaster Aug 8, 2014 4:23 AM Flag

    With shorting representing this small a percentage of shares outstanding, it seems a waste of breath to mention short interest either as an explanation of past declines or for a future rebound.

  • I've been away awhile. But the annual loss looks higher than ever. And the run-up of the world economy seems gradual enough that the shipping industry will have little trouble keeping up with the expansion. We are on the brink of 2015 when the tanker sector was supposed to be minting money. But, NNA is sagging back toward lows of 18-24 months ago. Does anyone have a theory of why things are actually better than they look?

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