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CBRE Group, Inc. Message Board

winomaster 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2015 11:33 AM Member since: Aug 11, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Do the math

    by p2ialias Jun 23, 2015 2:47 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 24, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Most producers of a commodity are what economists call "price takers", not "price makers" You sell at the market price or your production goes to storage. Almost always, you don't get to decide what price you get.

  • Reply to

    Do the math

    by p2ialias Jun 23, 2015 2:47 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 24, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    Overvalued or Undervalued? No, in the US we have better production technology...and with that, more supply in relation to demand. Its not just shipping COSTS that account for the price disparity...shipping AVAILABILITY is also a factor. But, if there was enough shipping available to satisfy all exporters, the cost of Nat Gas in the US would still be cheaper by the cost of that transportation.

  • Reply to

    Do the math

    by p2ialias Jun 23, 2015 2:47 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 23, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    "NG fuel is coming with or without government help because of cost savings and to meet even more stringent EPA rules."

    I believe the refueling stations are coming on line with government subsidy. Which just allows them to be built sooner...before all the demand is already there.

  • The turmoil began in earnest when President Viktor Yanukovych, a Russian speaker, decided not to sign an agreement for closer ties with the EU, as he had planned. Instead, he opted for closer ties with Russia.
    His about-face led to mass protests, and he was driven from office in February 2014.
    But his ouster provoked resentment and secessionist sentiment in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, leading to Crimea's annexation by Russia and bloodshed in the east -- where secessionists were supported, according to Western officials, by the Russian military.
    The conflict has not yet been resolved.
    The pull between East and West, and between ethnic Russians and longer-term natives, is evident in many former Soviet republics, in an arc stretching from Moldova in the south to Latvia in the north.

    Comment By Poster:
    The article says: “His (President Viktor Yanukovych) about-face led to mass protests, and he was driven from office in February 2014. But his ouster provoked resentment and secessionist sentiment in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, leading to Crimea's annexation by Russia and bloodshed in the east -- where secessionists were supported, according to Western officials, by the Russian military.”

    Comment: Yanukovych was placed in the Ukraine presidency by a Russian financed political campaign. Whether his ouster provoked any resentment and secessionist sentiment in the people of the Crimea is a matter of debate. What is absolutely clear is that Yanukovych’s ouster provoked resentment in the Kremlin, and their invasion of Crimea.

  • Europe extends Russian sanctions 6/22/15
    Story highlights
    • The Kremlin calls the sanctions "unfounded and illegal"
    • The situation in Ukraine reflects a broader tug of war between East and West
    • The sanctions were imposed a year ago
    London (CNN)European Union foreign ministers meeting Monday in Luxembourg extended sanctions against Russia imposed because of the country's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, an EU spokeswoman has told CNN. The sanctions were imposed a year ago to punish Russia for its annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and its military support for separatists in the eastern regions of Ukraine, which border Russia. The sanctions consist of asset freezes on some Russian companies and people as well as travel bans against certain officials.

    A Kremlin spokesman condemned the extension of the sanctions.
    "Russia, naturally, considers these sanctions to be unfounded and illegal, and we have never been the instigators of sanction measures," the spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told journalists.
    Peskov said Russia would respond by extending measures against the European Union, which include restrictions on the import to Russia of foodstuffs from the EU.
    The Kremlin spokesman said the restrictive measures undermine the interest of EU taxpayers.
    Upheaval started with rejection of EU agreement
    The sanctions, and the events that preceded their imposition, reflect the tug of war between East and West over the future of Ukraine -- and the divisions within the country as well, between ethnic Russians and Ukrainian speakers who want closer ties with the European Union.

  • winomaster winomaster Jun 22, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    And from this day forward, Europeans will tell their children the lazy, bad Greeks were thrown out of the community by the hard working, virtous Europeans. And then the Greeks were eaten by the bear.

  • Reply to

    CHK is trading way bellow Book Value

    by roosterly9 Jun 21, 2015 10:21 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 22, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    I'm no accountant, but my recollection is that they are required to adjust book values only once they become too much out of line with true values. And that companies commonly carry an item called "good will" as an asset and part of "Book Value". They will carry that on their books for years until they have a money losing quarter. Then they wash it off the books in a one time purge so that it can not impact profits in the future.

  • Reply to

    CHK is trading way bellow Book Value

    by roosterly9 Jun 21, 2015 10:21 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 22, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    I don't know the details but we allow various countries varying amounts of rights to buy up companies in the US. The Brits seem to have the most unrestricted rights. And we even allow them to partner up with our defense companies as they did with the creation of the Harrier jet fighter. A measure of the corruption this country has sunk to, the Russians in recent years were allowed to buy up a uranium producing company in the US.

    We don't even allow the Canadians largely unrestricted rights . This likely goes back to the 1970's when the creation of OPEC and the shut off of oil prompted the Canadians to nationalize all American oil operations in Canada. They paid top of the market prices for those operations, so it worked out for the American companies. But this was not the action of a close US ally. This was the action of a country looking out for themselves first.and changing the transaction price that oil would be sold for between our two economies. And maybe they were positioning themselves to deny the US oil if supplies became seriously short.

  • winomaster by winomaster Jun 16, 2015 12:59 AM Flag

    Investopedia’s Take On NADL From Comments In Seadrill’s Annual Report:
    A Posters Summary: (From May 28, 2015)

    Seadrill CEO Per Wullf sees "subdued market conditions and the challenging market continuing into 2016."

    Seadrill now believes some deliveries of drilling vessels on order likely can be postponed.

    “Reworking the Rosneft agreement to extend the termination date by two years”, also means Rosneft is “free to market rigs that were part of that contract, and to delay the construction, delivery, or shipyard stay of those rigs.”

    “Seadrill reaffirmed its commitment to North Atlantic Drilling.” This includes “providing a guarantee of North Atlantic Drilling's Norwegian Bond. Seadrill also secured North Atlantic Drilling's credit facility, and the two completed the West Linus sale leaseback. This commitment has had positive implications across the company's capital structure and overall cost of funding.”

    The Seadrill group “anticipates that oil companies will be cautious with their capital expenditures in 2015 and 2016, meaning next year will be challenging as well for the drilling industry.”

    The Seadrill Group management “anticipates little to no industry fleet growth between now and 2018 due to all the rigs being scrapped by Seadrill's peers. It sees that trend running up against oil companies' eventual need to keep hydrocarbon supplies from declining below demand. That will ultimately lead to rising dayrates, which are expected to yield more robust market conditions for Seadrill Group.”

  • Reply to

    NNA's Involvement with Navios Europe (II)

    by buckeye0270 Jun 10, 2015 12:14 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 13, 2015 4:18 AM Flag

    The fact that the bank was not able to drive a more favorable deal for themselves is, I think, a measure of how unsettled the market is. There is a high likelyhood that NNA will do no better than collect a management fee before these ships have to be scrapped. Realisticly, this deal is something of a long shot.. But since their investment is so small, it still makes sense to do the deal.

  • winomaster by winomaster Jun 12, 2015 3:22 AM Flag

    EIA: Coal production would fall to 1980s levels under Clean Power Plan
    By Jacob Barker 6/12/15

    Coal mined in the U.S. would fall 25 percent by 2024 if rules aimed at slashing carbon emissions go into effect, according to a recent analysis from the federal government’s energy numbers cruncher.
    By 2040, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reportsays, the nation would mine 20 percent less coal than it would without rules to cut emissions that cause climate change. That would be 10 percent below 2014 production levels — levels last seen in the 1980s.

    The analysis paints a grim outlook for coal producers already struggling with big losses due to cheap natural gas, other environmental rules and stagnant global demand for coal used in energy and steel production.
    But the EIA thinks a sharp downturn during the early years of carbon limits would be made up, somewhat, in the 15 years after 2025. The forecast is based on an expectation of growing demand for electricity and higher prices for natural gas.
    By 2024, Western coal production, much of it in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin, would fall 21 percent from last year’s levels. It would be 34 percent lower than 2024 forecasts that exclude the environmental rules. Gradual increases over the next 15 years would still leave mining in the region 19 percent below the EIA’s business-as-usual case.

    St. Louis-based Peabody Energy, which announced job cuts this week, and Creve Coeur-based Arch Coal are both heavily invested in Powder River Basin coal, the largest U.S. source for the fuel and a top choice for power plant operators because of its low sulfur content.Interior basin coal, concentrated in Southern Illinois, would still grow 14 percent above 2014 levels by 2040. However, production would fall initially as power plants cut coal use over the next decade, and they would be 30 percent lower than EIA projections absent the rule.

  • Reply to

    A meeting ........

    by jackmaster20 May 11, 2015 10:10 AM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 4, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    "The stock is telling us that there is no interest in a better future for NADL
    by virtue of these meetings as a prelude to a move in sanctions …... "

    I would say it as the stock is telling us that investors, uninformed of the internal realities, believe that the parties are unwilling to come together. As for the reality, I myself just don't know. I have theories about the internal logic, but it can be so hard to know the mind of another. Most people themselves don't even know where in their minds logic ends and pure emotion begins. Putin, when he gets around to resolving the situation will not be acting on 100% logic...and there's the rub.

  • Reply to

    A meeting ........

    by jackmaster20 May 11, 2015 10:10 AM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 9:28 PM Flag

    I can tell you this about diplomacy: When both of the sides become serious about the negotiations and not just using them for propaganda purposes, there will be a news blackout dropping over the conversations. In the runnup to the talks, The Russians saying they intend to reorient their economy to better deal with the sanctions, is the sort of talk that is to be expected. But the longer it continues into the talks, the less hope we should have for any real results.

  • Reply to

    Stock issuance

    by bdinvest1 Jun 3, 2015 10:20 AM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    I agree. The deal was done for the benefit of Drys. No one likes to default on contracts for new rigs, but they might have been able to extricate themselves from the contract with a reasonable penalty paid to the builder. If it is a fact that the three new rigs will be producing losses as soon as they arrive, then its bad business to accept them. But frankly I'm not certain it is the new rigs that are producing the losses. It's the older, less desirable equipment that you are still paying on that drag a company down. Anyone know if they have charters on the new rigs?

  • Reply to

    Book Value

    by tthemainman38 Jun 3, 2015 1:56 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    "Book value" has no reliable significance in investing. It is an accounting term where assets that have suffered declines are listed at full value for a time. But ultimatly auditors are going to require that the decline of assets be recognized in the balance sheet.

    What this company is showing as book value has likely not declined since its stock went into the dumper. But does anyone imagine the rigs on the companies balance sheet could still be sold for what they are valued at? No, they could not Maybe they will again come to have their past value, but at the present moment their book value has been compromised.by the unsettled nature of the market.

  • winomaster by winomaster Jun 3, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Sanctions Against Russia Could Last Decades: Lavrov
    June 2 -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Bloomberg TV that his country is concentrating on how to diversify its sanction-hit economy and is prepared to work under them for a “very long time.”

    Gee then why renew the agreement with NADL at all.

  • Reply to

    Moody's downgraded CHK's debt..

    by gettysburgjuly123 Jun 2, 2015 7:54 PM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 9:01 AM Flag

    Whose talking about imports into the US. I'm asking if people here...with this BK talk...are considering what effect increased exports out of the US is going to do to the price of Nat gas and the profits of CHK.

  • Reply to

    Chesapeake Insiders Are on to Something…

    by wallpack123 Jun 3, 2015 5:50 AM
    winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 8:44 AM Flag

    If the Oil majors are going to scoop up these shale producers at bargain prices, why would anyone here want to see that happen? Wouldn't it be better to wait out the situation and allow CHK to achieve full value for its reserves. People who think mergers and buy-outs would be a good outcome are like a bunch of carpetbaggers who buy in at the bottom and then sell as soon as they can weasel any sort of a profit on this stock. They are the opposite of investors like Ichan who are after more than a trading profit.

  • winomaster winomaster Jun 3, 2015 8:33 AM Flag

    As I read this story, I am literally choked up at the patriotism of these oil and gas companies. That they would set aside their personal financial interests in order to make oil and gas substitutes for the coal that has been substantially fueling our electrical generation. Oh, wait a minute...these guys are not a bunch of heroes. They are just advancing their own selfish interests. I wonder if anyone else has figured this out. : / Man these guys are tricky.

CBG
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