My theory is that so many of the coal stocks have been hammered to the point that BK is assumed. But the stronger stocks like BTU have had their share prices hold up better. Obama's latest anti-coal measure can't really hurt the stocks that have already been hammered to a presumption of bankruptcy. But BTU was presumed to be one of the eventual survivors...until this final blow. Its not that BTU will be all that effected by the measure, but investors are seeing that this administration is not yet done hammering this sector. Sot BTU falls because of a presumption that even they might not survive.
If Obama was proposing to fund research into fusion or other technologies that would cut carbon emissions without crippling growth, I'd be inclined to be less suspicious of his motives. But, he only supports technologies like wind and solar that show no promise of being energy intensive enough to be a basis for industrialization. I don't think that Obama personally cares about the "Green" agenda, but to raise the funds needed for his presidential campaighs, he sold out to these groups. Any successful run for president is built on a foundation of special interest groups. In Obama's case, his campaign was built on a foundation of cash from the Greens, isolationists, race baiters, socialists and overseas groups that want to see America's influence in the world rolled back.
The GOP seems to feel that politically it makes more sense to keep a low profile and score big in the next election. The public is sick of all politicians right now. And anyone starting a fight will take the blame for setting it off.
The people that are pushing the Global Warming proposition don't believe it any more that the rest of us. But they are alarmed that the industrialization of China and other second world countries is reducing the pristine quality of the planet. They live comfortable lives in their "First World" countries, but they don't want to see any increase in industrial activity that will allow poor nations around the world to drag themselves out of poverty. What they are doing is selfish and evil. To the extent their scheme succeeds, the world will have less growth and more poverty, war and misery. They are foolishly evil people.
"When was the last time people in Cape cod seen ice bergs wash up on their beaches? I bet thats unusual too."
My dad grew up in Nova Scotia and the ocean did not commonly freeze up, but every summer they would see chunks of ice float by the beach where they swam. And I can tell you from personal experience that that was the coldest swimming beach that I have ever swam at. But my real point here is that the water did not commonly freeze up there.
As I see it, the real potential of this deal with Rosneft is that there could be follow-on deals where Rosneft would convey other fields for working by NADL. If so, there could be more revenue coming out of those old fields that anyone has anticipated. And Rosneft is going to have the incentive to make these deals with NADL because Rosneft will own a piece of NADL.
My understanding is that NADL took over the leases on the drilling rigs as well as assumed rights to work the oilfield. That would be the most logical arrangement. Rosneft cant convey ownership to rigs that they don't own. So NADL assumes payments on the leases.
" exchanging 30% of the company for some sketchy Russian land-based drilling rigs. I just smell a ripoff."
My thinking is exactly opposite of yours. The Russians are notorious for mismanaging their oilfields. A lot of oil was left in the ground that could be extracted using the new "tight oil" technology. The outstanding potential in NADL was the potential earnings locked in those old oilfields.
I tend to think that there is going to be a long time before coal prices recover. This because there is too much capacity that has been taken of line and will come back as demand rises. There is going to be a long time before demand begins to outpace the ability of the industry to keep up with new supply.
history...I know, I kept scratching my head wondering how Joy Global, Caterpillar, and Deere were performing so much better than the underlying companies that they sell to.
More coal is being mined than ever. It's just that the industry had ramped up to meet demand that never materialized after 2008. Coal sales are somewhat up. Coal prices are very down
I toured a coal mine on a seam where my father worked as a young man in Nova Scotia, Canada.. Some recollections:
1) Parts of the mine went out under the ocean and the seam was less than 5 feet high. So the workers had to stoop all day.
2) My Dad had one of the best jobs in the mine. Before the start of each shift, a small crew of men had to disassemble the conveyor machinery (The pan) and move the machinery up to the face of the coal seam. Otherwise, as the men worked they would have to walk unfeasibly longer distances to dump their coal loads. The problem was that you have to pull out the roof supports to move the Pan forward and restore them as quickly as possible. And as you dither, the roof is creaking down bit by bit. The work is physically taxing and dangerous and must be done at top speed. So these jobs go only to the strongest, smartest men in the mine. Additions to the crew, because of the danger had to be voted on by the rest of the "pan shifter" crew. The incentive for a miner to go after that job was that for less than an hours work, you were paid a days pay. And if you chose to, you could work the coming full shift and go home with two days pay.
3) Practically everyone in that town had a coal mine in their back yard because the coal seam there was so close to the surface. So every kid grew up starting his mining career about the age of ten. Every week your parents would send you into a hole in the back yard to fetch some coal for heating and cooking. About 98% of the men in this town would end up working in the mines all their lives. My uncles worked there in the summers to earn money needed for college.
4) On payday, a young man still living with his parents would turn his pay over to his mother and she would give him an allowance as she saw fit. Your parents were your banker for your college savings. One uncle had no interest in college, but when he moved out of his parents house, he was able to pay cash for his first house.
The only way capturing the carbon is of any value is if it is guaranteed forever. If it re-releases into the atmosphere after 50 years, then the value of the capture is a disaster. I can't think of a capture method that would reliably capture that carbon forever, unless they intend to go to the expense of making the carbon into diamonds.
I see corruption in both parties. The GOP has put everything up for sale to the highest bidder among the business interests. They should go to jail for this. But within the Democratic party they are placing things up for sale to foreign interests...and the name for that is treason.
"I would imagine they voted it down because fantastical conspiracy theories are tiresome."
That Putin poured money into the campaign chest of The former president of the Ukraine is, I would say, a fact to any that have followed the story.. That Putin poured cash into campaigns in the other former Soviet states is self-evident to anyone reading the news reports coming out of one after another of these states.
Bill Clinton had a Chinese man who was "bundling" campaign contributions of the sort that did not need to be declared as to the donor...anonymous cash given to the party with an earmark for a specific candidate, as I recall. When a warrant was issued for his address, he fled the country.
You seem to find it incredible that one nation would use campaign contributions to effect an election in another country. Take a look at the Drudge website today where there is a story that a Senate panel is investigating if Obama used campaign contributions to knock out Bibi Netanyahu in their coming election.
Those who have given my post the thumbs down, I'm curious...do you disagree about the reality of what I claim, or do you just not like people saying negative things about someone you voted for. Frankly, I don't say the other party is any better. They all have decended into unprecedented levels of corruption. But, I can appreciate that lots of people here are still in heavy denial about the ethical standards of their elected representives. Still, the Congress has a 6% approval rating and a majority of people, in recent polls, are identifying the government as the top problem we have in this country. So, I thought people here would be open to the unvarnished truth. Well, perhaps not yet.
It seems to be well known overseas that Russia is rigging the elections in the former Soviet states by financially backing his own presidential candidates. There is evidence that China has been throwing cash into our presidential elections as far back as the Clinton administration. I have to assume Russia has been financing Obama from the start of that traitors career. Both China and Russia want to see the US pull back from its global role so that they can take over in their respective regions. And frankly I think that is OK with Obama. He wants to see this country spend its tax money on social programs, not defense. He just wants to see things collapse on the next presidents watch. So, his policies are designed to weaken but not cause an immediate collapse. He will negotiate a treaty with Iran that gives them the bomb after he is out of office. So the next president, thanks to Obama policy is going to see takeovers in the Middle-East, Europe, and Asia. Tighten your seat-belts...we are in for some turbulence.
Since oil is priced in dollars, the dollar strength has been part of the reason for the falling price of oil. And when the Dollar comes back to earth, oil prices will go back up some. Can't say how much the dollar move has contributed to the fall of oil prices. Numbers make my head hurt.
"The bigger mystery to me is why the tanker group as a whole is being ignored by investors."
Granted, the lower prices for oil are going to, for a time, increase demand for tankers...but the oil price plunge is occuring against a backdrop of a softening world economy. Europe is having to devalue its currency by QE moves. The US is the only country having any sort of decent growth. This is causing a lot of money to move into the dollar and that strength does not bode well for our continued expansion.
This lack of promise in the world economy is at the root of softness in tankers.
I agree SDRL would not allow NADL to go BK. But if SDRL's help is the last resort, their help may be on punishing terms that Increases SDRL's ownership at the expense of outside investors. Say SDRL decides to do a secondary offering and buy up 20% more shares at $1.20/sh. They get to buy at the bottom and then they own 84% of the company. (I think that's how the math works.
Anytime I hear someone talk about "book value", I want to scream. Book value is irrelevant in investing. And when people bring it up it just lets everyone know they are a rube and have never read a single book on investing.