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Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. Message Board

winonegipper 117 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jul 12, 2000
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  • winonegipper winonegipper 17 hours ago Flag

    Netman... I don't think there's a "conspiracy" to keep ENPH down; I prefer the term "concerted effort". A 25% short position doesn't develop under ordinary conditions unless it's driven by overvaluation, or on a recommendation list of actions to shareholders/funds by analysts. ENPH is far from overvalued, at worst fairly valued, and hypothetically way undervalued when compared to SEDG. If you look at a one year daily chart, You'll see ENPH has been contained through four price range cycles over two quarter (6 months), and failed to achieve a new high despite profitability and vastly expanded market share. At the same time, short positions have nearly doubled. This stock has been controlled by hedge funds, both short and day trading, despite its performance.

    Next week is critical in my mind. I will consider selling all or a portion of my shares if we don't see some indication this stock has the ability to climb higher for more than one day. Given Q1 is always the weakest quarter, analysts can always announce that Q1 results were weaker than Q4 to trigger a slide right back down to $10 or lower... And even if it does climb this week, it's still vulnerable unless shorts actively cover. So IMO, next week is critical.

  • winonegipper winonegipper 22 hours ago Flag

    I agree netman.... all these hedgies are trying to do now is shake some confidence, and panic a lot of selling, so they can cover open positions. People working for them can't be very proud of their occupation, bent on scamming people out of their money using computers to legitimize the theft and shift blame!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • The average daily short sales the past 6 days has been 90,000 shares, 33% lower than the peak average in mid-March of 137,000. My table shows total open short positions around 6.015 million shares, relatively unchanged over the six days.

    Amazingly after yesterdays strong upside performance, these hedge fund computer programs have resumed their goal of driving SP to zero. More power to them until FINRA and the SEC catch up with them.

  • winonegipper by winonegipper 23 hours ago Flag

    Ameet Konkar is Enphase Energy’s senior director for strategic initiatives. Recently due to Hawaii's grid stability problems, and Enphase's quick one day fix of 800,000 micro inverters, he made another almost unnoticed announcement. He said that Enphase’s existing microinverters do not have or generate the REACTIVE power required to perform self voltage regulation in the event of grid instability. However, he says this functionality will be built into Enphase’s next generation microinverters, due out later this year. I believe this is probably the most important upcoming products to enter the Enphase product line-up. It allows for independent smart grid operation rather than being tethered to human controlled "push" operations for voltage adjustments. Current state laws require a solar grid network to shut down in the event of instability (like those caused by tree branches falling on lines reducing voltage). California utilities, meanwhile, are still waiting for UL testing procedures to proceed with the more ambitious new smart inverter standards.

    I'd expect this new, truly smart grid advantage over SEDG and their DC maximizer line will be a game changer, giving ENPH total dominance over the market. Maybe that the reason Solar Edge Venture Capitalists were in such a hurry to get the IPO over with! Hopefully Nahi will discuss plans for the new smart voltage regulating microinverter at the upcoming CC.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Update on Oahu April 20, 2015, 8:02 p.m.

    by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 2:55 PM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 23, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    My replies are all being deleted now too. Sorry. Will try later.

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 22, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    Short shares were 48,951 on volume of 302,337, or 16.2% of total volume. Shorting seems much lower now than at its peak. Maybe they realize there's not much left to gain and SP has stabilized.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Slow Motion Day

    by winonegipper Apr 22, 2015 11:10 AM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 22, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    Ya, it looks encouraging Magooł. We held above the $13.10 mark on this downturn, and made up a little ground too. Any guesses for SP after the CC? The outlook should be very encouraging at least.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 22, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Hedge funds have slowed market trading again today to a crawl. Providing liquidity is supposedly the primary purpose of computer trading hedge funds according to Bill O'Brien, now President of ECN's BATS and EDGX, both owned by GS and Citadel. That notion must only apply now if hedge funds are not shorting the markets.

    Trader, you're right... these guys could cause all sorts of trouble around earnings time like in the past ... they could incorrectly post earnings like Briefing did, and then misinform investors about competitor's market potential, product usefulness, and cost savings, based on their opinions and future conjecture like GS did. Their aim IMO it to cause a flash crash to unload their huge, 25% short positioned shares. Same approach as Overstock in 2006.

    The difference is, ENPH is a very well managed company, that's high margin, debt free, and well positioned with a 40% percent growth rate. It's also held by many high quality institutions like not only Loeb's Third Point, but now, new to ownership, third ranked Janus Capital with 1,444,665 shares. I owned their very successful high yield corporate bond fund (JAHYX) during the Great Recession melt down and walked away with a one year, 25% gain in 2010. Janus Capital knows great investments when they see them, and they now own ENPH! Neither of these companies will let hedge funds destroy their investments without a fight.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    Short share sales were only 26,951 on volume of 231,680, or 11.6% of total trades. Very light! I think they know they're in trouble, and trying to figure a way out without driving the SP out of sight, or using gasp or briefing tricks again.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Update on Oahu April 20, 2015, 8:02 p.m.

    by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 2:55 PM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    Thanks Beew!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • At a volume of 200,000 shares per day like today, it will only take shorts 30 days to cover. Don't get nervous or anything, but I'm not selling in 2015 either.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • After making a commitment in October 2014 to clear 90 percent of the interconnection backlog by April 2015, Hawaiian Electric sought out Enphase's technical assistance to get a highly detailed analysis of grid conditions in every neighborhood across the island. Approximately 25,000 Enphase® systems have been installed on Oahu and represent approximately 70 percent of all PV system production on the island. The Enphase PV systems are able to report high-granularity voltage and frequency data, providing a highly detailed view of events of grid instability. The two companies used this PV production data to create statistically rich "heat maps" that supported the initial technical reviews by Hawaiian Electric's engineers. Utilizing the data-rich analysis provided by Enphase helped Hawaiian Electric meet its commitment to release approximately 4,000 PV systems, or over 20MW, of solar interconnections.

    "Leveraging Enphase's smart microinverters, and our data communications technology to clear Oahu's interconnection queue exemplifies the innovative thinking that Hawaiian Electric is applying to accommodate higher levels of solar penetration," said Paul Nahi, president and CEO of Enphase. "Our collaboration shows that solar technology companies and utilities can and must work together to the benefit of ratepayers while making the large-scale grid integration of solar a reality."

    "After extensive analysis and evaluation by Hawaiian Electric distribution engineers along with our partners at Enphase, we have been able to clear nearly all of the backlog of customers awaiting approval to interconnect their rooftop solar systems in a safe and reliable manner," said Jim Alberts, senior vice president of customer service at Hawaiian Electric. "By working with industry partners like Enphase, we are pioneering technical solutions to integrate record levels of solar energy."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    BEIJING--China accelerated its solar-energy buildout in the first quarter, adding 18% to total capacity as the government prioritized renewable-energy investment to clean the skies and shore up economic growth. The National Energy Administration said Monday that China added more than 5 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first quarter, more than in the first two quarters of last year combined. The newly released data provide early indications of how China intends to pursue ambitious climate-change targets that it agreed on with the U.S. last year. Under the deal, China will peak its carbon emissions no later than 2030 and increase the nonfossil-fuel share of its energy consumption to 20%, up from around 10% in recent years. The first-quarter buildup brought total solar capacity connected to China's grid to more than 33 gigawatts, a third of the way to the country's 2020 goal of 100 gigawatts. By comparison the U.S. has around 20 gigawatts of installed solar capacity, according to industry estimates. Much of the growth came in China's north and west regions, which have emerged as hubs of renewable-energy activity. The northwest region of Xinjiang led the way, with one-fifth of new solar additions, followed by Inner Mongolia and the eastern province of Zhejiang. Solar power--in addition to wind, hydro and nuclear--will play an important role in stemming China's carbon emissions, which contribute to global climate change. Surging solar installations come as China's government turns to infrastructure building to help boost economic growth. China said last week its economy expanded 7% in the first quarter, its slowest rate in six years. The central bank said Sunday it was cutting banks' reserve-requirement ratio for the second time in less than three months, freeing up $200 billion for banks to lend. Chinese authorities have been encouraging policy banks to lend more to clean-energy industries.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    I notice that 45 minutes after the open, hedge funds are getting more active in trading with ENPH. We may have a good day after all. They were withholding orders in the first half hour trying to force a drop, but no luck. Today's flat start in the markets is odd since all the other major global markets, especially Asia, were up significantly overnight due to China easing up on bank credit restrictions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 21, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Short sales yesterday were 90,935 or 18.34% of total volume, about 35% lower than the previous three day average. For the upcoming Apr 1st to Apr 15th (AprB) report, I've readjusted my table, and it shows a decline in short positions to 5,822,852 from 6,399,342 (the spring break). However the past three day up tick has brought it back to 6,074,747.

    The Enphase CC should be announced sometime next week for Tuesday May 5th. If the pattern established the past two quarters holds true, we may begin to see a rise in SP now going into this CC. Unfortunately, on 11/5 it dropped from $15.82 to a low of $9.90 after misreported earnings triggered heavy shorting. Then after GS' placed a "hold" downgrade on ENPH 1/7, it gradually rose back going into the 2/17 CC, when it was hit hard by shorts and dropped from $15.25 to a low of $11.72.

    The high short volume right now tells me these hedge funds are predicting our Q1 (the slowest quarter in the industry), to yield extremely "poor" results. Analysts have forecast non-GAAP earnings of -$0.08, on revenue of $86.6M. I find both forecasts very low and very unlikely, especially with Enphase's record of exceeding high end forecasts last year, no debt, and a fistful of new product offerings in hand. I think this time the shorts will get burned!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • They want $30/share out of SEDG so today they raised guidance from the initial $16 / $18 IPO price to $30...

    Deutsche Bank Initiated Coverage Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG)
    Buy $29.00
    Goldman Sachs Initiated Coverage Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG)
    Buy $31.00
    Needham & Company LLC Initiated Coverage Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG)
    Buy $30.00
    Roth Capital Initiated Coverage Solaredge Technologies Inc (SEDG)
    Buy $30.00

    It's already 4 times BV, and they want more than 5 time BV now. Gag me... sell all your ENPH today and buy SEDG, then see what it gets you. If I were Enphase, I'd start to question the integrity of these companies, their analysts, and who they serve in the market place.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • winonegipper by winonegipper Apr 17, 2015 7:08 PM Flag

    Short sales were162,416 on volume of 602,382, or 27% of total transactions. That's heavier shorting than anything we've seen in the past two weeks. no doubt they were saving it up to short it hard on option day today.

    Some analysts on CNBC were cautioning buying stocks, trying to infer the markets were shifting into correction mode. Others felt it was a buying opportunity brought on by option expiration. It's likely the market will lag on Monday and Tuesday, as earnings flow in from IBM and others over the new two weeks, and positive results rebuild confidence in markets. None of this changes the fact that Enphase is a high growth, premier investment opportunity that will do exceptionally well the balance of the year. I personally look at today as the last hurrah for shorts.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short sales 4/16/15

    by winonegipper Apr 16, 2015 11:40 PM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 17, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    We'll see what the short sale numbers look like tonight. They're not just attacking ENPH... 88% of the stocks on my list are down, most 2% on average like the indexes. Remember this isn't just two funds shorting and programmed computers don't care about fundamentals or industry. There are about 15 hedge funds on the ENPH ownership list, and all short and cover this stock whenever they get the opportunity. On days like this, they gang up all at once to take advantage. The short attack was signaled this morning pre-market again. The SP will rise as they start to cover now before the close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short sales 4/16/15

    by winonegipper Apr 16, 2015 11:40 PM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 17, 2015 12:58 PM Flag

    They short it because it has a small float and they can control the SP with their computers very easily, creating a high beta. It's all Goldman and Citadel running today's show through Knight Capital NITE.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Short sales 4/16/15

    by winonegipper Apr 16, 2015 11:40 PM
    winonegipper winonegipper Apr 17, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Hedge funds hit ENPH hard this morning. It seems they shorted 60,000 shares in two blocks in the first half-hour while only 110,000 total traded. Still they were able to drop it 39 cents to $13.60. Not bad compared to the rest of the markets. Hedge funds are buying under $13.70. Markets will continue to recover all day and possibly even close higher, but they'll no doubt try again to drop it.

    There is no justification for this market other than a general short attack. The leading economic indicators out today for March were up slightly by .2% as expected, along with the February Michigan consumer sentiment index to a greater than expected 95.9 from 93. The Euro and Pound were gaining against the dollar as well, which should allay any fears of a big drop in European orders to the US.

    Sentiment: Buy

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