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Novatel Wireless, Inc. Message Board

wirlesbushub 46 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Jan 5, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Bruce Karsh

    by august1552 23 hours ago
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub 23 hours ago Flag

    I believe this is more accurate, Karsh owned 3,401,000 shares directly and Karsh Family Foundation owned 750,000 as of an Aug. 18th filing.

    Today's filing shows that Karsh moved 401,000 from him to the Foundation raising the Foundation ownership to 1,151,000 shares. This would leave Karsh with 3,000,000 shares, but reporting at 2,885,803 it seems that Karsh sold 114,197 shares today. In total, Karsh and Karsh Family Foundation owns 9%.

  • Reply to

    Small amount of available MIFI shares

    by st067753 Jan 23, 2015 3:43 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 25, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    st067753, Your error is that you're duplicating the shares owned by Falcone and Pons as they Indirectly own these shares through HC2. Insider ownership would be the difference between the Outstanding Shares and the Float so Insiders own 38% of the outstanding shares and currently 27.56M is traded on the open market or Float.

    38% is still a pretty substantial amount of shares owned by Insiders though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The below was published on Jan 20th.

    "Novatel Wireless Inc (NASDAQ:MIFI), In a major negative the short interest in Novatel Wireless, Inc. shot up by 61.6% or 291,707 shares. The final shorts are 3.1% of the total floated shares. The positions increased from 473,842 shares on December 15,2014 to 765,549 on December 31,2014."

    On Dec. 15th, MIFI closed at $2.65 and on Dec. 31st, MIFI closed at $3.22 and continued to a new 52 week high of $5.40 on Jan. 12th. Clearly, there were some Money Managers on the wrong side of this trade. They were given the opportunity to close their short position and they took it (at a significant loss), pushing MIFI to $3.93 on Wednesday.

    With 85%+ of outstanding shares held by insiders, volatility could be high with MIFI, but trading at less than 1X current revenue, MIFI is significantly undervalued as compared to its peers.

  • Reply to

    Needham Highlights

    by august1552 Jan 18, 2015 12:16 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 19, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Being honest, there were a few things from the conference I didn't like:

    Alex said "M2M still is losing money and revenue remains flat" (similar to Q3 compared to Q2 around $9M to $10M) They made a claim of 2/3 to 1/3 revenue split of MIFI to M2M but at ~$50 projected for Q4, seems more like 4/5 to 1/5.

    "Customers have delayed their product launches"

    VZ is 50% to 60% of current revenue and International is only 12% to 15%

    And, I don't know how I feel about acquisitions of products vs. developing at this time as it could dilute shares again as we just absorbed the increased shares from our new investment group.

    To be clear, I'm long on MIFI and some of the above concerns seem more short term than long term, but I have to recognize the Pro's and Con's from that conference.

  • wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 15, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Easy assessment based on MIFI's revenue projection of $212M and SWIR rev proj. of $620M. MIFI is 1/3 of SWIR and 1/3 of $43 is $14. The MIFI upside is all based on positive EPS which is expected as early as Q4 results and definitely in Q1. I agree this gap will start to close soon.

  • Reply to

    History

    by big_panda_bear_4u Jan 10, 2015 5:21 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 11, 2015 11:56 PM Flag

    Novatel Wireless changed their ticker symbol from NVTL to MIFI in October and Yahoo seems to have an issue with combining both symbols.

  • Reply to

    What are some realistic price targets here?

    by mahilama1119 Jan 9, 2015 10:44 AM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 9, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    Other IOT and wireless broadband companies are trading at 3X to 5X revenue. MIFI just recently climbed above 1X projected 2015 Rev of 212M. It has been trading at a lower multiple do to their lack of profitability compared to peers like CAMP and SWIR. The new management team is focused on growth and profitability and could/should be profitable when they report their Q4 earnings in early March. Assuming this happens, a 2X Rev valuation puts MIFI around $9 per share and 3X would be at $14 per share. Even with the recent run from the mid $2's to above $5, MIFI is undervalued. As the market gains trust in sustained profitability, MIFI will move closer to the 3X or even 5X revenue valuation.

  • Breaking $5 for MIFI is a key metric as larger institutions will be able to invest at that level. MIFI is undervalued in comparison to its peers and as a value investment, we should see new buyers looking to take advantage of MIFI for the IOT growth projections.

  • Posting a 12%+ gain after yesterday's gain is only part of the story. Obviously, the high volume says a lot as well, but there were a large number of sellers at $4 that got flushed out with new investment coming in to close at $4.14. As mentioned by st067753, MIFI insiders own all but approx. 15% of the outstanding shares so I love seeing this type of rise along with the volatility to offer a base to continue higher.

  • Reply to

    I'm out - Great Run with SWIR

    by wirlesbushub Jan 3, 2015 3:42 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 6, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Peter Leparulo, Catherine Ratcliffe, Kenneth Leddon, and Robert Hadley were all removed from the company and Slim Souissi is the only remaining executive from the former management team. Slim was recognized by Alex (New CEO) for his recent sales successes last quarter. Remember the saying that 80% of success often comes from the Top 20%. Well, Novatel kept 1 of 5 or 20% of their former management.

    Time will tell. Good Luck, but this will be my last post about MIFI on the SWIR board.

  • Reply to

    I'm out - Great Run with SWIR

    by wirlesbushub Jan 3, 2015 3:42 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 6, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    You're absolutely correct - Novatel management was arrogant and clueless which is why the stock traded down below $2 last year.

    It's also why a team of activists came in, replaced the prior management, and are now running the company focused on growth and profitability. Clearly, it's been a while since you've followed MIFI so you probably should do some research before offering a recommendation to stay away.

  • wirlesbushub by wirlesbushub Jan 5, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    I recognize that the aftermarket volume is very minimal, but clearly a good sign for MIFI. MIFI rarely ever trades in the aftermarket overall.

    Could there be an announcement tomorrow as CES officially opens?

  • Reply to

    About time!

    by lollipopkids Jan 5, 2015 1:35 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Jan 5, 2015 2:36 PM Flag

    It's a simple value play in my mind. SWIR trades at 3X rev, CAMP trades at 3X to 4X rev, and Maingate was just purchased at 5X rev by SWIR.

    At 3X 2014 Rev of $182M, MIFI would trade over $12 and at 3X projected 2015 Rev of $212M, MIFI would trade over $14.

    MIFI is a great value at these levels assuming trust in the new management and the belief in the Internet of Things growth expectation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I owned SWIR for a LONG time and watched it sit in the $6 to $10 range for months before steadily climbing over the last two years as the IOT started to transition from hype to reality. Selling at $49 seemed right, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it climb further. As it stands, I believe SWIR is fairly trading at approx. 3X revenue so I believe the upside is limited and I'm looking for a similar run in MIFI (trading at .75X rev) in the year ahead as the new management team (Including Phil Falcone) has firmly taken control.

    Those that rode SWIR on a 700% to 800% gain like I did, may want to research MIFI for your next endeavor.

    Good Luck Longs!

  • Reply to

    Maingate purchased by SWIR at 5X revenue

    by sejsscarter Dec 22, 2014 3:21 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Dec 22, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    And, CAMP and SWIR are both trading about 3X 2014 revs. MIFI needs to show that Q3 was just the beginning of the turnaround and 2015 will produce a top portfolio return.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Dec 18, 2014 10:36 PM Flag

    From Bloomberg...
    "The majority of Son's wealth comes from his 22.6 percent stake in publicly traded SoftBank, the third-largest mobile Internet company in Japan and the investment company that has stakes in about 1,000 Internet businesses, most of which are closely held.

    SoftBank's public holdings include a 35.4 percent stake in Yahoo Japan, the country's most-visited Internet portal; 34.2 percent of Chinese social-networking site RenRen; and 4.9 percent of U.S. online game maker Zynga. The company's closely held investments include a 13.7 percent stake in Ustream, a provider of live video streaming, and 36.7 percent of Alibaba, China's biggest e-commerce company."

  • wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Dec 18, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Jack Ma directly owns shares of Alibaba and Masa Son doesn't. Softbank does own 36.7% of Alibaba and Masa owns 22.6% of Softbank, but unless Masa starts selling his shares or Softbank's performance starts to improve, these are the results as Sprint has dragged down Softbank's stock performance.

  • Wealth-X just announced its list of the biggest losers this year, proving that even the wealthiest hit rough patches.

    2. Masayoshi Son lost $5.9 billion.
    Though he remains the richest man in Japan, the CEO of SoftBank, Asia’s top Internet and telecommunications corporation, lost nearly $6 billion this year. Losses from Sprint, which SoftBank purchased last year, dragged down the company’s overall earnings this year.

    Rank #2 - Masayoshi Son
    Net Worth in Dec 2013: $19.1 billion
    Net Worth in Dec 2014: $13.2 billion
    Loss: $5.9 billion, -31 percent

  • Reply to

    Mifi, Swir....

    by garieh4 Dec 16, 2014 6:06 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Dec 18, 2014 1:32 PM Flag

    I think a more realistic comparison to MIFI is CAMP and no longer SWIR. What CAMP has today and MIFI is driving toward is profitability. MIFI revenue projections are only slightly below CAMP yet CAMP has a market cap almost 6X of MIFI. Believing MIFI is headed toward CAMP profitability numbers, a move toward $18 in the next 12 to 18 months seems conservative to Alex's vision.

  • Reply to

    Did RBC Capital miss the run-up in SWIR?

    by wirlesbushub Dec 17, 2014 12:09 PM
    wirlesbushub wirlesbushub Dec 18, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    The RBC Analyst looks like he did his job. He took SWIR down below $40 yesterday and SWIR is up over 5% since. I feel for those that got caught in the trap.

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