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Intellicheck Mobilisa, Inc. Message Board

wiselama 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2015 3:33 PM Member since: Oct 26, 2001
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  • wiselama wiselama Nov 19, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    I could write a book on how all of IDNs patents are public domain to begin with

    Golly.... my little gadget can read a PDF 417 barcode!.... whose gadgetry cant?

  • wiselama wiselama Nov 19, 2015 3:31 PM Flag

    Wasn't "Charlie" a Tuna?..... thats what made Parcells immortal

    Quick quiz.... what did Parcells nick name a cornerback name Elvis Patterson?

  • Reply to

    This "board" is a scam / hoax / joke

    by tx784fun Nov 18, 2015 10:39 AM
    wiselama wiselama Nov 18, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    How about going out on a limb and giving us your opinion on valuation

    be sure to use things like the recent 10-Q..... But remember.... I have already said I can pick that to pieces.... so careful treading into uncharted waters

  • $108K for the wireless.... moving costs around to make margins appear better...

    But what the hey... net... net is a cash burn of $1.3 million... which is immediately reflected in the share price

    Current value $0.66 shr cash... $0.30 shr in value of the enterprise.... similar ratio as the last report

    Did I mention this at a prior time?.... even doubling the revenue will NOT result in a share price appreciation as cash will burn off in that time frame

    Play any strength to your advantage

    Funny how much of an afterthought this P O S has become for me

  • Reply to

    New Patents Purchased

    by onetosixdfaast Sep 16, 2015 9:12 AM
    wiselama wiselama Sep 18, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    Too little too late....

    That cash component of the valuation speaks volumes on the value of the business...

    for them to succeed... they need to do it now.... their is no time left... I'm saying it right here and now... that there is another significant dilutive event in the not too distant future...

    My gut tells me they got jack squat for the wireless.... and they spent valuable cash on the recent patent purchase.... that no one else seemed interested in in the lifetime of the inventor... the inventor couldn't monetize his patents..... and its apropos that IDN bought them because IF their is one thing IDN has been good at in their 2 decades is the inability to monetize their own patents

    Its my opinion... obviously... but give me a reason to think that IDNs business is worth anything more than the $0.28 per share in Enterprise value that the market is currently giving them... why should investors give IDN a chance? other than Las Vegas type casino

    I've offered a valid opinion on last Qs revenue "spike" of near 100%... the Ludlow's still have a controlling interest in the company... and just as the Q was loaded hen they resigned their management control... this Q was loaded as they sold a large block of stock... is it coincidence that the sale was almost exactly 1 year after they announced their resignations?... or was it a planed (scheduled) event that called for loading all possible revenues to be booked?

    It can be said this is a cynical analysis.... but there is nothing to indicate that revenue can be grown at margins that are good enough to support the current 10 mil shares... when IDN did $12 mil yr in revenue they did so at exceptional margins.... and they were only kissing break even

  • Reply to

    New Patents Purchased

    by onetosixdfaast Sep 16, 2015 9:12 AM
    wiselama wiselama Sep 18, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    You would have to define lucrative.... would that mean a $1 million profit a year out?....

    What happens to cash in that time?... does it burn to critical levels?.... making a 4th dilutive event in a short term period... how much dilution would that be..

    I've pointed out that the Lions portion of the current valuation is in cash.... what happens if they are down $6 mil in cash and have less than $2 mil remaining

    Do you have a $.50 stock... that needs to raise $8-$10 million... that basically doubles the share count again....

    So that hypothetical $1 mil profit is now spread over about 20 million shares...

    a whopping $.05 per share... we give a generous P/E of 15 and that's $.75 per share plus the cash which would be lets say in the $8 mil range.... which would be $.40 per share on the dilution... add them and you get all of $1.15

    You could have sold yesterday and got $1.15... and you wouldn't have any of the risk that I laid out above.... and you can attack this analysis all you want... but bear in mind that I have quite the track record analyzing this company for over a decade

    Best case scenario is IDN hits on all cylinders and its dead money

  • Reply to

    New Patents Purchased

    by onetosixdfaast Sep 16, 2015 9:12 AM
    wiselama wiselama Sep 17, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    Book value is $1.88... and it includes $8 mil in cash ($.80 share)... $8 mil in worthless goodwill and $3 mil in what are really worthless intangible assets

    Enterprise value is $2.76 mil and divide that by 10 mil shares you get about 28 cents per share...

    add the 80 cents per share in cash and you have $1.08 per share.... imagine that.... the valuation fits the share price exactly

    Tax loss carry forwards are never worth dollar for dollar... and then you only realize the rate on the transferred value

    Cash burns.... and last Q there was a $1.8 million cash burn... we are at the end of yet another Q... they burn the same and using the same metrics above you will see 15-20 cents cut from the share price

    Cash will also not sell at a premium in a sale.... the company is being valued at $0.30 per share plus cash.... so IF you got a steep premium of 40% on that $.30.... it would be $.42 plus the cash on hand.... which as I just showed could be burning at $.20 per Q..

    So that means with a 40% premium on the enterprise value... less the cash burned this Q you could be staring at $1.02.... after the PREMIUM

    IF the company were to sell at $3-$3.50 that would be awarding a premium to the enterprise value of 733-900%... and that I do not see for a company that has never been able to turn its "valuable" patents into a profit after darn near 20 years

  • Reply to

    Of interest... and you need to know this fact set

    by wiselama Sep 2, 2015 11:50 AM
    wiselama wiselama Sep 2, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    IF they received anything of significance for the wireless they would have said so... why do we know that?... because if it was significant they have to tell us by law

    BTW... historically... after the IDN Mobilisa merger the Lions share of revenue was from the US Navy's no bid contracts on the wireless side....

    It was the drying up of these no bid... earmark contracts from the congressman... that finally broke IDNs back... so they have sold off and abandoned their former cash cow

  • Reply to

    Of interest... and you need to know this fact set

    by wiselama Sep 2, 2015 11:50 AM
    wiselama wiselama Sep 2, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    all I did was point out that after you subtract the cash from the current valuation the street values the business at $2.5-$3 million.... successful companies that are sold are lucky to get a 40% premium on the value of the business... that would equate to $1 on IDN.... and the reality is 25% would be generous...

    You cannot place the any premium on the cash... cash is just that.... and it burns

    Where I started the post is as important or more so... gut instinct is that the Q was loaded to provide a pop for the Ludow's to dump shares... and dump they did with taking 40 cents less on $1.40... the reality is the shares did not recover from that event... and they still have a large position to sell

    I said in May it would be wise to take advantage of $1.50+.... on Aug 17 the day before the Ludlow's sold I again said I would take advantage of strength in the shares at $1.40 (hey did Count Ludlow take my advice?... still sucking the blood from longs)...

    I've played IDN like a Stradivarius (I'm long gone but love to follow)..... I've given my opinion and both my track record here... and my gut tell me I've got it pegged

    I must admit that I too swallowed the quarterly revenue increase until I saw the filings... always read the filings of companies you own especially small ones

    You would be better off liquidating here... and rolling into beat up energy plays (be careful of SDRL & LINE)... because they will eventually recover and see gains in the 100s of %s

  • Todays news got me to visit IDNs Edgar filings...

    I see that the Ludlow's sold about 400K shares on Aug 18 a few days after earnings... on the 17th... IDN was $1.40... the Ludlow's were willing to take $1 per share as they sold into strength... a 28.6% discount..... It appears they still own about 600K shares

    Now I fully believe that current mgmt. wants to be divorced from the Ludlow's... their ownership... that terrible separation agreement... and the lease

    I want to remind everyone of the loaded Q3 IDN had last year as the Ludlow's resigned.... given my knowledge of this company... the Ludlow's control.... I have to put my tongue in my cheek as I question IF this past Q was not loaded once again to start the final divorce from the Ludlow's... if it smells like krap... it usually is

    Hindsight is always 20/20 with IDN

    BTW...... this Indian nation deal IMO could be in preparation of selling the whole company

    With 10 mil shares outstanding.... $7+ mil in cash.... the market is only valuing the business at about $2.5 million... so given traditional models of valuing a company in a sale.... a 40% premium would be steep for a successful company... which is just an additional $1 million on the valuation.... (you don't get a pop on cash)

    and as cash burns.... so does the valuation of the company... You could really be fully valued at $1.07... which is why the Ludlow's would take $1 now.... and that separation agreement with the Ludlow' so onerous that another company may want no part of it vs the revenue and earning potential of the company

    also beware of the generous packages that current ownership has been giving could pop the shares outstanding by about 10% on a sale.... which reduces the value to current holders

    and at this time this is an analysis that was done objectively

    Oh well.... back to shorting energy

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