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General Motors Company Message Board

wngr123 177 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2015 7:00 PM Member since: Oct 24, 2008
  • Reply to

    Poor Journalism or Poor Messaging?

    by justum_rev Jul 16, 2015 11:56 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 17, 2015 6:01 PM Flag

    "Maybe she should Tweet CNBC like Elon Musk."

    And there it is. Jeye's version of a great CEO is that he/she tweets CNBC. He wants his CEO to pump his stock regardless of the lack of results. In other words, he wants his CEO to create a bubble of promises and unrealistic proclamations of how wonderful his company is. Not only has TSLA never had positive net income, even worse is that it's never had positive operational cash flow. Everything TSLA is today is been built on debt.

    The tech bubble was built on people like Elon Musk. If you can time the collapse, you will do great, if not, you'll lose everything.

    Not me. I want a guy like Jack Welch. Ever heard Jack Welch speak? He's a terrible speaker, he stutters, he swears, he talks so fast you almost can't understand him. But he sure knows how to make money (and drive shareholder value). He's not a smooth guy. And I bet he never tweeted CNBC in his life.

    Is Mary Barra like Jack Welch? Far from it. Totally different style, that doesn't mean she can't be effective. People ask me if I think Barra is doing a good job. I tell them it will be apparent in 5-10 years. Anybody that's wants to evaluate her now doesn't get it.

    But if your idol is Musk, go for it.

    "Do you think that wngr is going to say anything against upper management?"

    I just did (Elon Musk). I remain neutral on Barra, as you should.

    The problem with GM stock is lack of results. Margins of 2-3% are NOT going to move the needle. The stock will do exactly what it has done over the past 6 years...trade in a flat, narrow band. THAT's the problem, not the CEO tweeting CNBC. If you want a CEO that tries to create shareholder value like that, buy TSLA. Good luck.

  • "Asked about the dealer ads touting $10,000 discounts on F-150, Ford's top U.S. sales executive said the incentives were being offered by individual dealers.

    "I can tell you that that number of $10,000 is commonly used by our competition," said Mark LaNeve, vice president of U.S. marketing, sales and service."

    A blast from the past.

  • Reply to

    Poor Journalism or Poor Messaging?

    by justum_rev Jul 16, 2015 11:56 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 16, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    "Why isn't no one in GM upper management defending GM stock price?"

    Besides, any investor that really matters couldn't care less what Phil LeBeau or anybody else says. It's all about the results.

  • Reply to

    Poor Journalism or Poor Messaging?

    by justum_rev Jul 16, 2015 11:56 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 16, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    "Why isn't no one in GM upper management defending GM stock price?"

    I'm not sure I know what the jeye definition of 'defending' is, but if you want someone to try and artificially pump up the stock by making inaccurate statements, that's not going to happen simply because it's against the law. Any executive doing this is subject to legal action by the SEC and DOJ. Somebody like Elon Musk needs to be very careful about what he says on the record. Let's just say he is "extremely" with little evidence thus far.

    If your meaning is to try and make excuses for the stock, that's not going to happen either. Management's job is to run the company and provide good results, which in the long term, should drive stock prices up. So far neither the good results are that evident nor have stock prices have increased.

    Just my opinion, but I'm coming to the conclusion that the biggest influences on an individual stock are macro factors, i.e., Greece, the economy, Congress' latest blunder, etc. Sure, things like the massive recalls have some affect, but they're usually short lived.

  • Reply to

    Poor Journalism or Poor Messaging?

    by justum_rev Jul 16, 2015 11:56 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 16, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    "I have been quoted in the press, in fact, as saying exactly the opposite of what I really said, while another person was quoted as presenting my viewpoint. They got the message right but switched the quotes."

    Media experts will tell you to always have two things available when you expect to be interviewed:

    1. Two or three key messages that YOU want to have out there, and work these key messages into the answer of any question asked.

    2. A written statement with quotes attributed to the right people. Not saying they STILL won't screw it up, but you have a pretty good chance on getting a retraction by the editor if it's important.

    Regarding #1, I once witnessed a senior GM person giving an interview on a new model, and the reporter repeatedly tried to focus on some recall or something. The reporter was obviously frustrated and finally asked her when she thought Haley's comet was going to reappear. The executive replied "I don't know, but when it does, I'm confident that GM will still be making great cars and trucks." The reporter gave up and printed what was in the written copy.

  • Reply to

    2nd Quarter earnings

    by thsykes14 Jul 14, 2015 11:41 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 14, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    "Does anyone know how to get GM revenue, by country?"

    You can get it by region in the 10K filing (Page 113). Here's how it looked for 2014:

    NA: $101.2B / 64.9%
    Europe: $22.3B / 14.3%
    Intl.: $14.4B / 9.2%
    SA: $13.1B / 8.4%
    GM Finance: $4.9B / 3.1%

    Total: $155.9B

    The China JVs total sales were $43.9B, however, GM only shows the portion of sales in line with their equity share. They are included in Intl.

  • Reply to

    Europe Calls the Greek Bluff

    by cheblammo Jul 13, 2015 10:07 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 13, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    "My guess is that at least half of the electorate has no idea what's happening in Greece."

    By half, do you mean 47%? Probably so.

    It's actually not a done deal yet. Tsipras still has to convince the Greek parliament to enact what he has capitulated to into law. That might be a bridge too far for some of them. If they turn him down, fasten your seat belt.

  • Reply to

    Europe Calls the Greek Bluff

    by cheblammo Jul 13, 2015 10:07 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 13, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    "The just announced Hillary economic plan makes it clear that her election will continue that momentum - I believe beyond the point of no return. "

    I couldn't agree more. If what has happened in Greece doesn't wake up people here, we deserve what we get.

    Can we be THAT stupid?

  • Reply to

    Europe Calls the Greek Bluff

    by cheblammo Jul 13, 2015 10:07 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 13, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    "We think our leadership is incompetent, but this is in a class of its own."

    I love it that the Europeans faced them down. This leftist bravado spewing know-it-all takes office on a promise to make the Europeans relax their demands and ends up begging at the eleventh hour.

    Having said all that, the Europeans are just kicking the can down the road. Greece will NEVER pay back what they owe and I seriously doubt that they will be in any better shape when this bailout is gone. Until they have a change of heart politically, it will always be the same.

    I ran across an interesting definition that's kind of appropriate for the Greeks (and us):

    *_Ineptocracy_****(in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number
    of producers*

  • wngr123 by wngr123 Jul 10, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    Harry Wilson. Anybody remember that name? He's the guy that was on the Obama appointed Auto Task Force that hooked up with a bunch of hedge funds and wanted to extort cash from GM.

    GM and Wilson agreed on March 9 to buy back $5B in stock and increase the dividend by 20%. Since all of the hedge funds that Wilson represented had stocked up on GM stock and wanted to manipulate a handsome return, they wanted the buyback and dividend increase to drive up the stock price to make a quick buck, regardless of what it did to the company.

    Here's the "good" news. Since March 9, GM stock has declined 17%. Unfortunately, for a couple of weeks after March 9, the stock was up a little (about $1.25). I hope they got greedy and didn't sell and are facing huge losses now.

  • Reply to

    JUST RETURNED FROM THE MIDWEST

    by robert_dinero_here Jul 8, 2015 1:04 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 9, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    "The weather most truly sucks back there."

    Can't argue that, but I can't imagine living out there. I spend a fair amount of time on the west coast and the population density, traffic, cost of living would drive me crazy...not to mention the prevailing political influences.

    To each his own. I live in a small town about 50 miles west of Detroit and I love it here, wouldn't move for anything. I figure a few more years of global warming should make the climate perfect too.

  • Reply to

    JUST RETURNED FROM THE MIDWEST

    by robert_dinero_here Jul 8, 2015 1:04 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 9, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    "We are in a severe drought here interstate deadbeat"

    I think you said you were originally from the midwest one time, honestly, assuming your job was not an issue, would you prefer living in the midwest or the west coast?

  • Reply to

    Here's a glimpse of the future

    by wngr123 Jul 8, 2015 11:03 AM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 9, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    "wngr , I will let you know if thanks are in order some day in the not to distant future. Im in for 5000 shares."

    Really? Well that's interesting because this is on the crowdfunding website for Elio Motors:

    "NO MONEY OR OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BEING SOLICITED AT THIS TIME, AND IF SENT IN TO ELIO MOTORS, WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED. NO OFFER TO BUY SECURITIES OF ELIO MOTORS CAN BE ACCEPTED AND NO PART OF THE PURCHASE PRICE CAN BE RECEIVED UNTIL ELIO MOTOR’S OFFERING STATEMENT IS QUALIFIED."

  • Search for "Elio Motors P4" on Youtube. With CAFE standards of 54 MPG in 2025, this will be what internal combustion engine cars will look like.

    The other alternative will be some type of PHEV or EV but they will cost significantly more.

  • wngr123 wngr123 Jul 8, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    "Hey,genius, you can buy one now, built in the US, no import tax. What's stopping you? You're as dumb as qqq."

    Everything in that post is absolutely correct. Everything.

    Toyota makes Tundra's in San Antonio, TX, and Honda made Ridgelines in Lincoln, AL. No import duty whatsoever. Both have been largely unsuccessful in the U.S. Honda finally gave up in 2014 and discontinued production.

    Ford scams the law by building Transit Connects in Turkey and because they have rear seats and rear windows, they aren't subject to the tax because they are passenger vehicles, not commercial vehicles. They are shipped from Turkey to Baltimore where the rear seats and windows are removed and discarded making them available for commercial usage.

    Remember the Subaru Brat? And those odd backward facing seats in the pick up bed? Same story. The seats made them passenger vehicles and avoided the tax.

  • Reply to

    Sales and Market Cap

    by jeyebolt2003 Jul 6, 2015 9:06 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 7, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    "I've mentioned before that I have an old chess game on my computer that I still like to play occasionally even though I never lose. I suspect these drubbings you give to people like Pete and PM serve the same purpose for you!"

    There's some truth in that I confess. I have preconceived notions just like anybody else and when some poster puts something out there that doesn't quite ring true with me, I start researching to see who's right. Sometimes they are, sometimes I am. When they are, I adjust my thinking. When I am, I post it.

    After so many years of getting information from different people, one starts to develop a pretty good mental BS meter. One thing I learned in my second career was that there is an unbelievable amount of information out there on any public, and even some privately owned companies. You just have to know where it is.

    I learn a lot by doing that research.

  • Reply to

    Sales and Market Cap

    by jeyebolt2003 Jul 6, 2015 9:06 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 7, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    "I think that Tesla's book value proves that it is a startup."
    That's kind of an odd definition, but use it if you want.

    "R&D costs doubled because they're going to add a second model to their lineup."
    So you assume they continue at the same rate of R&D after 3 years of production on the Model S, and double that for the Model X. Wouldn't you think that the R&D for the Model S should be falling off since they introduced it in 2012 and have 57,000 units shipped? I'm afraid that horse doesn't trot.

  • Reply to

    Sales and Market Cap

    by jeyebolt2003 Jul 6, 2015 9:06 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 7, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    “I didn't want to make any comparison between these two companies”
    “Secondly, Tesla's Gross Profit Margin is 27% while GM's is only 12%.”
    You have obviously forgotten your earlier post. Let me refresh your memory.

    “Usually if you have to evaluate a startup company you look at its Gross Profit, since it gives you an idea of what profits it could have in the future.”
    Tesla was incorporated in July, 2003. I’m not sure I would call a company 12 years old a start-up.

    “R&D costs are fixed costs and also tend to decrease once the know-how is achieved.”
    Tesla’s R&D costs in 2013 were $232M rising to $465M in 2014. Do you expect a reduction in 2015??

    “Probably Tesla is in a bubble, Amazon is in a bubble even more than Tesla.”
    Nope, wrong again. Tesla is financing its expansion by debt. Amazon earned a net positive cash flow from operations of $6.8B last year and is paying for its expansion through cash flow. Amazon has ALWAYS had positive operating cash flow, Tesla has NEVER. Big difference.

    “What about GM? Is $52B a fair value, given those low margins?”
    OK, we’re starting the GM comparisons again. GMs market cap is $52B and its book value is $36B for a ratio of 1.44. Tesla’s market cap is $33.9B and its book value is $912M for a ratio of 37.2. What do you think?

  • Reply to

    Sales and Market Cap

    by jeyebolt2003 Jul 6, 2015 9:06 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 7, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    "They are building a huge battery plant, that's where they're burning money, but their cars are profitable."

    No they're not. As of 12/31/14, Tesla had spent $106.6M on the Gigafactory (page 76 of their latest 10K). That leaves a net loss remaining of $194 million spread across 31,600 cars sold in 2014 yields an average loss of $6,100 on each car.

    GM made $4B on 9,924,880 cars sold for an average profit of $400 each.

  • Reply to

    Why did Fiat buy chrysler

    by h_benjamin Jul 5, 2015 4:01 PM
    wngr123 wngr123 Jul 7, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    “GM is 3rd now, but if FCA merges with Suzuki (for example), then GM will slide to 4th position.”

    In 2014, the FCA Group had revenues of $105B (Euro 96.1B). Suzuki had revenues of $24.7B (Yen 3,015B). That totals $129.7B. GM’s revenue was $155B. GM would NOT “slide to 4th position.”

GM
31.51-0.40(-1.25%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT