"he's lonely and doesn't have very many friends..."
Justum has given you ample opportunity, in fact even taunted you into giving your side of this debate and you have consistently ignored the opportunity. I don't know if your problem is inadequacy or some other reason, but I have to tell you, your avoidance speaks volumes.
"So, based on the above facts (I know you hate facts, but grown up people use them all the time), would you still say “it's just a matter of time before gm management mucks things up"??"
Well done justum. You present an accurate and persuasive argument for your point. Clearly, GM has made its own way in the post bankruptcy period. In my mind, two issues remain:
1. Can they sustain themselves in the next down cycle of the economy? I think the answer is yes. They've done a good job with the balance sheet as you point out, therefore lowering their breakeven point.
2. Can they take the next step and become financial leaders in their industry? Even at 4+% margins, that falls short of Toyota's 8.0% in 2014. The other thing that is a little concerning to me is a small slide of market share from 11.6% globally to 11.4% last year. The market share thing isn't necessarily bad if margins were increasing, but they aren't. In 2014, profit margin was 2.6%, the lowest in the post bankruptcy years. Agreed, that had a lot to do with the special charges, but even the unadjusted margin was 4.1%.
I think I would sum it up as "so far, so good". Clearly, to say they are headed to a second bankruptcy is preposterous.
In 2013, GM had special charges of $1.3B, in 2014 they had $2.4B, and in only in 6 months they had charged $1.5B for Venzuelan currency devaluation, Russian exit costs, impairment charges, and the ignition switch compensation program.
That's a full $5.2B in just the past 2 1/2 years. Nearly all of these charges are cash costs.
This fact causes a lot of unexpected variation in earnings and the street rightfully hates unpredictable earnings. They have to fix this. Not only is it a lot of money, but most are the result of a failed strategy and they are just clearing the boards.
If they can eliminate these issues, then maybe the stock will perform.
"The name of the game is buy low and sell higher."
""Or, let someone else do the research for you and buy mutual funds instead of stocks."
I did that in the late 1998, 1999 and early 2000.Yep lost just about it all then fired the broker."
I wasn't talking about the broker doing the research. I was talking about the financial experts at the mutual funds that decide what securities to include in their fund. Whatever works for you.
Mind if I ask a personal question? What % of your total portfolio are individual stocks and equity mutual funds?
"But believe the Media does manipulate I know for a fact"
They may try, but do you really think people are persuaded to buy something because some talking head says to? Not anybody I know.
Facts are things you can prove, otherwise it's an opinion.
"How you know you don't listen to CNBC of what goes on on CNBC."
Jeye, your short term memory is going. You posted it the other day. Shall I find it and re-post it? And you should know that I don't plan on starting. Cramer, CNBC, etc. are for the weaker minds amount us. You know, the people who think that 'pimping' makes a difference.
Here's some friendly advice. Take a finance course or two so you can read a SEC filing. You will have SO much more information (and it will be accurate). Don't put your investments in the hands of idiots like Cramer, LeBeau, etc. Or, let someone else do the research for you and buy mutual funds instead of stocks. At your age you probably shouldn't be in equities anyway.
You'll be glad you did.
"So you invested into GE instead of GM. Who paid your Pension?"
Jeye, I didn't invest in GE. Look up sarcasm in the dictionary. PM has recently had to do the same thing.
"Cramer works for CNBC GM isn't on the CNBC Pimping list its on the Bashing side of CNBC"
CNBC bashing GM and yet on earnings day, GM shoots up. I need you to explain this to me Keye. Could it be that you were wrong and it's not the PIMPING, but the results? Is that possible?
"Cash Flow, Capital Return, Liquidity"
Yea, yea. Sure GM is doing OK, BUT WHAT MY GE??? I bought a ton based on your prediction, and it's down for the third day in a row!!! WE NEED MORE PIMPING!!!
It's been two days now that you reported that CNBC was 'pimping' (your words) GE. Based on your experience and knowledge, I expected it to start going up, so I backed up the truck on GE. When should I expect it to start to go vertical? It's been down both days, I am starting to worry.
Any words of advice? Just today I lost almost 1%. Help!!
"What the difference between our Fed's or the rest of the Worlds Fed's."
The above sentence is the ONLY one that has any relevance in that whole post. And the point is that nearly ALL countries manipulate their currency, so every time you bellyache about the Yen, just understand how hypocritical you sound.
What's the difference between our Fed and the other central banks? NONE. THAT's the point. I'm glad you got it.
"That why I have stocks and Bonds that pay a dividend."
Man, you have a severe focus issue Jeye. The question is, again:
"Do you think it's "fair' for the US Federal Reserve to maintain a monetary policy that keeps the interest rates at near zero?"
Normally, this type of question would be answered 'yes' or 'no' along with your reasoning behind your answer. Obviously if it is terrible for the Japanese central bank to be manipulating their monetary policy I would assume you would think it's NOT OK for the Federal Reserve to do it either. Is that question 'fair'? Is that question clear enough?
"NO, just pointing out even though you don't watch CNBC, you said they had nothing to do with GE anymore."
They have no OWNERSHIP of CNBC. Geez. Once again you missed the point. Way back when, you said that Jack Welch bought NBC so he could have them 'pimp' the stock. In your own words:
"Jack Welch bought his own Network to Pimp the GE stock."
The point is...read carefully here...CNBC is now free to say anything they want about GE. Get it?
OK, let's go on from here.
Now you've posted that they have said good things about GE on that daytime soap opera called CNBC. So they must really believe it now, right? And since they have said good things, and they have mind control power over people, it follows that GE should start going up, right?
So (phew)....now back to the original question. I assume that since you believe that CNBC has brainwashing capability, people will rush to buy GE, therefore, it should start going up, right????
Or are you re-thinking your statement?
"Out of the blue its time to Pimp GE."
So based on your theory that CNBC controls people's thinking like Big Brother (I believe your term was 'brainwashing'), are you recommending a buy on GE?
"Maybe you can vote Jimmy Carter back in as President if you want high interest rates."
You missed the entire point if you think I want higher interest rates. Put on your cognitive baseball cap and think it through.
"OK in November of 2012 it was at 76 YEN to the Dollar Yesterday the YEN was over 124 as you can see 100 is right in the middle. Now you tell me was 3OO Plus YEN Fair for GM, Ford and Chrysler during the 70"S?"
Actually, in the past 55 years the average yen rate has only been below 100 six times, 1995, and 2008-2013. That tells me that the "average" rate is much more than 100. In fact, the median rate for those years is about 135Y/$, but never mind. Why let facts get in the way. Better to cherry pick the data, right?
What's "fair" or a "level playing field", I have no idea. Haven't thought about it that much because it doesn't matter. Only gives people something to complain about.
Let me ask you this. Do you think it's "fair' for the US Federal Reserve to maintain a monetary policy that keeps the interest rates at near zero? If you lived in Japan you would be complaining about that.
""I googled the YEN its average was 159 YEN to the Dollar because in the 70's to now when they got their foot in the door here it was over 300 YEN to the Dollar.In late 2012 it was 76 YEN to the Dollar"
Concentrate Jeye. WHY DID YOU PICK 100 YEN? Because it's the average???
"The U.S. is one of the largest petroleum exporters in the world,” even without lifting the ban on crude exports, said Energy Information Administration chief Adam Sieminski."
Do me a favor, google "Oil exporting countries". he results are pretty consistent regardless of the source you look at. Saudi Arabia is #1 with 6.9 billion barrels per day, Russia is second, Iran and Iraq are 3 and 4 with both about 1/3 of the Saudi's. The US is #43 in some of the sources and #47 in others depending when the data was taken.
Natural gas is a different story. The US is the top exporter of natural gas in the world. But that's not what you said, is it?
Your quote from the EIA says 'petroleum' which includes a lot of other things besides oil.
"I guess you missed where I said 100 YEN to the Dollar"
Yes, I guess I did. In fact, I went through your posts back a week and I still can't find it. Please give me the date stamp of that post. Did you say WHY you think Y100 is the fair number?