"GM phone answering people are often quite rude, in my experience."
If this board is a typical cross section, can you blame them?
"Its been passed out as bonuses and increased salaries and benefits. As per the posts here on this board., but all of it.,"
That's right, the top 100 in the company took the money and split it evenly among ourselves. Each one got $500 million and I want to tell you how much we appreciate it. It absolutely made my day.
"Other companies pay up to 30-35%!"
Not very many. In a GAO study of companies with at least $10M in assets, the average corporate tax paid was 12.6% even though the statutory rate is 39%. If companies are paying 30-35%, they need a new tax staff.
"i probably would be pressured into buying a gm car "
No man, this is no two bit outfit like you're used to working for, you'll get a car of your choice to drive...free.
" ....and board positions are nothing more than token positions."
You would be a perfect fit. I think you're missing a opportunity. If the application is too difficult to fill out, just call 313-667-1500 and tell who ever answers that you're interested in applying for the opening on the Board of Directors. I'm sure they would be helpful. I would dodge the questions about references and accomplishments if I were you.
"gm stock shuts down..."
Couldn't care less. Haven't owned a share of GM for 7 years...old GM or new. And I would never use a spreadsheet with you, it would overwhelm you. You do understand that all spreadsheets do is display data in an organized fashion, right. It's your aversion to data that is the problem.
You should probably take an 'Excel for Dummies' class in night school. You could organize your daily job assignments with it. You know, Girls Rest Room at 9:00AM, Boys at 9:45AM, etc. and check them off as you do them. Wouldn't that be fun?? You might even get the school district to pay for it.
"That is a very good point. They're in junkyards.
They are GM cars, after all. It could even be MOST of them."
Unbelievable as it sounds, recalls, even safety recalls, have a much lower compliance rate than you might imagine. Like voter turn out. The company's obligation is over after 2 or 3 attempts to contact the current owner, after that if there is an accident, too bad.
"Could we say it is an uncontrolled acceleration?"
I believe you're thinking of Toyota. With GM, it's the opposite condition...shuts down. I would prefer the latter.
"wngr, what do you think about the rest of the SEC filings since early March with GM. To me it a lack of support for Mary. She isn't in the filings, but so many are around her. It also looks bad to me."
Jeye: The only filings since March 1 are Form 4's in which insiders are required to notify the government and public of stock trades and holdings. Each insider can only trade on 4 specific days in the year and apparently she either didn't make any trades or it's not one of her days. Doesn't mean anything.
"On March 7, 2014, Cynthia A. Telles, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of General Motors Company (the “Company”), gave notice to the Company that she does not intend to stand for reelection at the Company’s 2014 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Dr. Telles attributed her decision to her recent appointment to serve on the Board of Airport Commissioners of the Los Angeles World Airports and to her confidence in the Company’s improved situation and prospects. She joined the Board in April 2010." -GM 8K
I actually thought you might be a patient of hers. She has been on the faculty of the University of California, Los Angeles School of Medicine Department of Psychiatry since 1986. -GM Website
There are applications for this vacant board opening on the GM website. I think you should check it out.
"One of the points you made with yosemite_rev’s question “Is it difficult for a smaller company to get established in China?” was that it is “Incredibly difficult.” i disagree and offer a scenario."
Nobody cares what you think.
"remember, you don’t have the large midwest supplier base buying yours products on class aaa discounts in foreign markets and propping up the sales number."
LOL. It's good enough to supply 3 million units annually....for GM alone!!! Do you understand that China's auto market is bigger than the U.S.??? You think another 10% is going to break it??? I happen to know that the supply base in China is flourishing, you know nothing. Besides, when grown up people talk about increasing capacity, they are talking about internally as well as externally. If you were who you claim to be, you would know that. You would think that a "supply chain consultant" would know something about that, wouldn't you??
"I need to send you back to work another “about an hour” to be a little more thoughtful about the ceo’s time."
Why don't you ho0ld your breath until that happens.
I see no further need to give you another chance to show your ignorance. I will not, however, give you the pleasure of putting you on ignore. I will point out any ridiculous point that you put out there, with facts. Something that seems to escape you.
You would be further ahead by just admitting you are not what you claim to be. There's no shame in any gainful employment. The old adage that you get into all kinds of trouble and embarrassment when you pretend to be something you're not, you're living proof. And if you truly ARE a business consultant, Lord help your clients, you certainly won't.
" Is it difficult for a smaller company to get established in China?"
Incredibly difficult. GM spent years wining and dining Chinese government leaders before any arrangements were considered. Jack Smith (the GM CEO/Chairman in those days) spent numerous personal hours developing relationships.
The main thing you have to prove to the Chinese is that you know something they don't. Something they can gain from knowing....no mystery about that. They have thousands of under employed technical genius' because they hadn't figured out how to apply the technology. We had a PhD in LASER technology running a lathe in one of our plants.
There have been a number of consulting firms springing up to help small American companies to try to gain a foothold in China, just be aware, it will be a long, expensive endeavor. Plus, you won't be allowed to be a majority partner in the JV.
"I may need to re-evaluate my opinions."
Me too. I don't buy auto stocks, but if Cramer says they're no good, but it deserves serious consideration.
"I saw skinny Wuling vans all over the place when I was there. And they were almost always silver for some reason."
They all look unstable to me...skinny and tall.
In the early days of the China business, we sent a bunch of engineers over there to understand the infra structure and what the market wanted. They discovered that we had put about 15 vehicles in years past to test in that environment. When the testing was over, everyone over here kind of forgot about them, but when the guys finally tracked them down they had about 200,000 miles on them with virtually with no preventive maintenance done on them. They asked them how they liked the transmissions and the Chinese people said they did, no problem. Our guys got in them and discovered 4th gear was no longer working and the fluid was like mud. They've come a long way since those days.
"What's your reaction when you see me saying GM did not design build the Wuling van?"
One of the reasons that GM would have probably formed JVs even if they weren't required by the Chinese government would be to learn the local market. That is exactly why the Japanese formed the NUMMI JV with GM. And why not pick a JV partner with a successful history and products?
"Is it not one of GM China's most popular models?"
That's my impression, but I don't have exact data.
-Increasing fuel economy standards in China. CAFÉ standards based on vehicle curb weight began in 2012 and will be fully implemented in 2015. The Chinese government will continue its policy of subsidies for customers that buy fuel efficient vehicles. Technology developed at PATAC will aid in this project.
-Chinese emission standards will be expanded. Euro 4 standards are already required nationwide but Bejing, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta are expected to add Euro 5 standards for new vehicles. Again, PATAC is well positioned to give GM an advantage against other makers.
GM has a unique position in China with in-country engineering and design facilities under a 50/50 joint venture with SAIC called PATAC, the Pan Asian Technical Automotive Center. With China’s attention on fuel economy and emissions, this 2,000 person organization will be a competitive advantage. In addition, GM’s proposed acquisition of Ally’s equity interest in GMAC-SAIC is expected to close this year and should enable further penetration in consumer auto loans.
The Chinese business metrics for the GM JVs are incrementally better than the overall GM metrics, so any additional volume, assuming they hold steady with the metrics, will improve the performance of GM.
For all the reasons above, I would recommend expansion of the GM JV companies in the near term.
Specific data follows:
Strong tangible results:
-GM’s equity income of the joint ventures in China for 2013 was $1.763 billion for a $7.851 billion investment (carrying value) for a 22.5% ROI
-China’s balance sheet shows assets of $22.9 billion and $15.1 billion in liabilities leaving $7.8 billion in stockholder equity and retained earnings or a ratio of 0.34 of SH Equity to Assets compared to GM’s overall ratio of 0.26.
-The Chinese JV’s had sales of $38.8 billion with NI of 3.7 billion, or 9.5% margin vs overall GM margin of 3.4%
-In the past three years, the Chinese industry has grown 18.3%, while GM JV’s sales have grown by 24.1% increasing market share to 14.3%.
-GM JV’s have 6 strong brands in China (Buick, Chevrolet, Wuling, Baojun, Cadillac, and Jiefang).
-PATAC, the Pan Asian Technical Automotive Center (50/50 JV between GM and Shanghai Automotive In China (SAIC)) develops specific IP for Chinese applications.
-GM Financial’s proposed acquisition of Ally’s equity interest in GMAC-SAIC is expected to close this year and should enable further penetration in consumer auto loans.
Perfect_market failed to answer the question posed to him because he simply has no skills. The information below took me about an hour to put together and came from all public sources (95% of which is from the 2013 10K). A real consultant would know where to go to get this information. Of course, PM is NOT a real consultant so it would take him a lot longer. Also, if one were actually working inside the company, much more information and data would be available, but I doubt it would change the answer.
If this were a real engagement, the analysis would be in much greater depth with much more detail. I could have done that, but PM just wasn't worth it. Remember, the question was how to advise GM on China...contract, maintain, or expand.
This will take several posts, so be patient.
In order for it to make sense to expand, one must be capacity constrained or have highly reliable market data that says the company will be capacity constrained. If the forecast is neutral or showing a downturn, one should not expand manufacturing capacity.
To make a determination of market activity, one must analyze Chinese demand over the next decade. A large part of this analysis has to do with the macro economic situation, i.e., the general state of the Chinese market. In the years from 2005-12, the Chinese auto market grew at an annual average growth rate of 24%. McKinsey and Company is forecasting that trend will slow to about 8% a year from the present to 2020, which is still a good growth rate compared to the rest of the world. Since lead time for additional manufacturing capacity is 2-3 years, GM has to be aggressive in adding additional capacity.
The other issue to be considered is company specific market penetration. Taking a conservative approach and assuming that GM and its JVs will only hold their present share, it still indicates a need for additional capacity.
(To be continued)
"Anyway, I would be very interested in what you could share about gm transmissions in bmws. anything ??? "
"one last chance? What’s the hurry? using time to put a little pressure on the dialog? great move when you have some leverage in the situation…"
You fail. You are a fraud.
"Another item is the study of the gm powertrain group’s decision to put/keep a plant in strasbourg, france. With france’s social laws, what management genius decided to maintain a location there? further, why would gm put USA management in key positions there? gm certainly doesn't know much about managing an international company. i bet expats associated with that plant experienced a hit in their careers. i feel sorry for them."
I could tell you all about it, but you don't deserve to know.