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Olin Corp. Message Board

wonwood 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 13, 2015 7:58 AM Member since: May 12, 1998
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  • wonwood wonwood Mar 13, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    As someone that does not have a reliable high speed connection the push to streaming is killing me. If you draw a 20 mile radius around my house there are over a million people and I get get anything faster than DSL that test at less the 1MBS 99% of the time. We need a national broadband initiative. Comcast stops 2 miles from my house, I live in a neighborhood of 99 homes on 1 acre lots and we can't even get them to give us a cost so we can pay for them to extend service. I would gladly cut the cord on my $200 direct TV if I had other options

  • wonwood by wonwood Mar 2, 2015 6:54 AM Flag

    I really hope CLNE has someone pushing sales to the school bus districts. An article in my local paper this morning (Richmond, VA) where it mentions the just four local districts and together they need to purchase about 400 buses in the next couple of years as they have not been replacing their fleet as they should have been. That's in an area of about 1 million people. If you multiply that by 300 times for the US population that would be 120,000 buses.

  • Reply to

    ANYONE have a clue why delayed??

    by bearmangled99 Feb 3, 2015 5:32 PM
    wonwood wonwood Feb 3, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Hopefully good however my fear is they are so bad that they are hoping everyone will be headed home by the time earnings are announced. When they are good everyone wants to trumpet them, when bad try to remain low key and fly under the radar.

  • wonwood wonwood Dec 24, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    There used to be a great 15 minute video on CLNE's website that answered almost all your questions. It was a great discussion about CNG vs LNG. I assume it is still there. Required reading for any CLNE investor. I seem to remember a fast fill CNG station being around 2-3 million. You basically are very limited in places where you install them. There has to be a NG pipe distribution system in place and also permitting (which can be tough in a residential area) and most importantly spare electrical grid capacity to handle two 500HP compressor's. If you have a LNG facility like the Pilot projects you basically don't need the pipeline system in place so it's easy to add a CNG station there.

  • Reply to

    NG Advantage trailer capacity?

    by wonwood Dec 23, 2014 4:38 AM
    wonwood wonwood Dec 23, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Thanks. What I was trying to figure out is what the viable trucking range would be to meet peak demand. I have read several articles about peak NG pricing in the northeast spiking to over $20 for power plants due to pipeline capacity issues. If you can buy NG for 3$ on the wholesale market and sell it for $10 on the spot/peak market you could afford to truck it a significant distance.

    You could never truck enough to run a Power plant for an extended amount of time but if you could just have 20 or 30 trailers filled and available for the peak demand time I would think it would make sense even it you had to truck it all the way from the Mid-Atlantic states.

  • Reply to

    NG Advantage trailer capacity?

    by wonwood Dec 23, 2014 4:38 AM
    wonwood wonwood Dec 23, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Why does someone "thumbs down" a question that it on topic?

  • Has anyone read what the capacity of one trailer is for NG advantage? Thx

  • According to the Gov't website still plenty of stations being added to the CNG network. 15 up in the last seven weeks and 128 so far this year. No idea how many are CLNE but I have to figure people would not be opening a new station every two days if there was no demand for them.

  • Reply to

    Overdone

    by patientd1 Nov 6, 2014 11:12 AM
    wonwood wonwood Nov 6, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    I agree, too much of a fall. Just put a 5k share order in for $10.85.

  • At what low level do you guys think LF has to trade at to become an attractive buyout target for Mattel, Hasbro, etc, etc.

  • Reply to

    Northeast Pipeline capacity

    by wonwood Nov 5, 2014 9:42 AM
    wonwood wonwood Nov 5, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    I would think if they have peak/shaving plants in place the price would not spike all the way to $19. I do some work with Washington Gas in DC and they have Peak/Shaving in place. Under extreme conditions they will inject up to 40% propane (no LNG plants) into the NG pipeline.

  • Article on yahoo via NPR this morning about Northeastern utilities being effected by lack of pipeline capacity in the winter. The going rate for NG delivery is Jan is $19 compared to the $3-4 in the rest of the country. Sounds like an opportunity of NG advantage to me. They could theoretically have trailers loaded at non peak times and have them sitting at the power plants ready to use for peak supply times. At those rates you could afford to build a lot of trailers.

  • wonwood wonwood Oct 30, 2014 3:43 PM Flag

    It appears to me that according to the gov't website there are only 2 existing public CNG stations in MD. Both in Baltimore area one is a CLNE station at BWI airport and one is a Clean N Green public station at the Waste Management yard.

  • Reply to

    How can any one lose 4.7 million

    by teach_162 Oct 23, 2014 6:21 PM
    wonwood wonwood Oct 24, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    Anyone know the depreciation schedule for a NG fueling station or even a regular fueling station? Let's see if you have 300 stations that cost on average 3 million each and they have a 10 year depreciation schedule that is 90 million is "expenses" each year for 10 years.

  • wonwood wonwood Oct 24, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    I have about 35 vehicles on the road for my business. I would buy 15 NG vehicles this year if I had a fueling station closer than 25 miles away and if you could buy a pickup truck for no more than $5K extra.

  • wonwood by wonwood Oct 23, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    As with most earnings I think the tone of the conference call will decide how earnings are viewed. If they talk about new customers and contracts as opposed to "challenging economic environment" it won't really matter what the earnings were.

  • wonwood wonwood Oct 23, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    I don't even look at the EPS, the revenue is what's important. When you are opening up station of station that cost 2-3 million dollars that serve 40-50 vehicles you are not going to get net earnings. When those stations start serving 500 vehicles the company might start making real money. I am not a fan of sacrificing earnings for market share but in CLNE's situation they really don't have any choice. You can't sell vehicles without the infrastructure in place to fuel them.

  • I think we have already established gallons delivered this quarter are going to be up 13-14% based on the previous press release of 50 million gallons. The Yahoo analyst estimate for revenue is 101 million this quarter which is only a 3% increase. What am I missing, Is there any reason the revenue number would not be in the 110 million range? I suspect the NG advantage business has a lot lower margin per gallon than the retail but other than that I would think there would be a linear relationship between gallons delivered and revenue.

  • Reply to

    off to the races

    by baronburger Oct 16, 2014 12:46 PM
    wonwood wonwood Oct 16, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    If you think about it in context this stock has only traded under 8 for 18 trading days out of the last 1000. Great buying opportunity.

  • wonwood by wonwood Oct 15, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    I admit I should know the answer to this but I do not. I have read many times about DNR's free cash flow and how that made the company undervalued. Can someone tell me what accounting "gimmick" (for lack of a better word) is allowing them to have that much free cash flow with only 400-550 million in profits every year. Is depreciation of assets $600 million per year?

    I have already "doubled down" and am now thinking of adding more. As a value investor I find it hard to pass up an opportunity where a company is selling for 75% of book value.

OLN
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