I really hope CLNE has someone pushing sales to the school bus districts. An article in my local paper this morning (Richmond, VA) where it mentions the just four local districts and together they need to purchase about 400 buses in the next couple of years as they have not been replacing their fleet as they should have been. That's in an area of about 1 million people. If you multiply that by 300 times for the US population that would be 120,000 buses.
Hopefully good however my fear is they are so bad that they are hoping everyone will be headed home by the time earnings are announced. When they are good everyone wants to trumpet them, when bad try to remain low key and fly under the radar.
There used to be a great 15 minute video on CLNE's website that answered almost all your questions. It was a great discussion about CNG vs LNG. I assume it is still there. Required reading for any CLNE investor. I seem to remember a fast fill CNG station being around 2-3 million. You basically are very limited in places where you install them. There has to be a NG pipe distribution system in place and also permitting (which can be tough in a residential area) and most importantly spare electrical grid capacity to handle two 500HP compressor's. If you have a LNG facility like the Pilot projects you basically don't need the pipeline system in place so it's easy to add a CNG station there.
Thanks. What I was trying to figure out is what the viable trucking range would be to meet peak demand. I have read several articles about peak NG pricing in the northeast spiking to over $20 for power plants due to pipeline capacity issues. If you can buy NG for 3$ on the wholesale market and sell it for $10 on the spot/peak market you could afford to truck it a significant distance.
You could never truck enough to run a Power plant for an extended amount of time but if you could just have 20 or 30 trailers filled and available for the peak demand time I would think it would make sense even it you had to truck it all the way from the Mid-Atlantic states.
According to the Gov't website still plenty of stations being added to the CNG network. 15 up in the last seven weeks and 128 so far this year. No idea how many are CLNE but I have to figure people would not be opening a new station every two days if there was no demand for them.
I would think if they have peak/shaving plants in place the price would not spike all the way to $19. I do some work with Washington Gas in DC and they have Peak/Shaving in place. Under extreme conditions they will inject up to 40% propane (no LNG plants) into the NG pipeline.
Article on yahoo via NPR this morning about Northeastern utilities being effected by lack of pipeline capacity in the winter. The going rate for NG delivery is Jan is $19 compared to the $3-4 in the rest of the country. Sounds like an opportunity of NG advantage to me. They could theoretically have trailers loaded at non peak times and have them sitting at the power plants ready to use for peak supply times. At those rates you could afford to build a lot of trailers.
It appears to me that according to the gov't website there are only 2 existing public CNG stations in MD. Both in Baltimore area one is a CLNE station at BWI airport and one is a Clean N Green public station at the Waste Management yard.
Anyone know the depreciation schedule for a NG fueling station or even a regular fueling station? Let's see if you have 300 stations that cost on average 3 million each and they have a 10 year depreciation schedule that is 90 million is "expenses" each year for 10 years.
I have about 35 vehicles on the road for my business. I would buy 15 NG vehicles this year if I had a fueling station closer than 25 miles away and if you could buy a pickup truck for no more than $5K extra.
As with most earnings I think the tone of the conference call will decide how earnings are viewed. If they talk about new customers and contracts as opposed to "challenging economic environment" it won't really matter what the earnings were.
I don't even look at the EPS, the revenue is what's important. When you are opening up station of station that cost 2-3 million dollars that serve 40-50 vehicles you are not going to get net earnings. When those stations start serving 500 vehicles the company might start making real money. I am not a fan of sacrificing earnings for market share but in CLNE's situation they really don't have any choice. You can't sell vehicles without the infrastructure in place to fuel them.
I think we have already established gallons delivered this quarter are going to be up 13-14% based on the previous press release of 50 million gallons. The Yahoo analyst estimate for revenue is 101 million this quarter which is only a 3% increase. What am I missing, Is there any reason the revenue number would not be in the 110 million range? I suspect the NG advantage business has a lot lower margin per gallon than the retail but other than that I would think there would be a linear relationship between gallons delivered and revenue.
If you think about it in context this stock has only traded under 8 for 18 trading days out of the last 1000. Great buying opportunity.
I admit I should know the answer to this but I do not. I have read many times about DNR's free cash flow and how that made the company undervalued. Can someone tell me what accounting "gimmick" (for lack of a better word) is allowing them to have that much free cash flow with only 400-550 million in profits every year. Is depreciation of assets $600 million per year?
I have already "doubled down" and am now thinking of adding more. As a value investor I find it hard to pass up an opportunity where a company is selling for 75% of book value.
Thanks, 14% quarter to quarter is not bad although is sounds like the pembrook facility by itself could account for half of the volume. I would expect the LNG numbers to be up at least 10% also.