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Alliant Techsystems Inc. Message Board

wonwood 688 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2014 10:26 AM Member since: May 12, 1998
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  • wonwood wonwood Jun 24, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    I don't think so. Personally if you have a list of companies with 15% growth selling at a PE of 20 I would like to see it as ideas for an investment. One of the allures here is that KMX has the ability to get to a scale that will be severely disruptive to all of their competitors. I would think that with 500K plus transactions a year they can pin point the EXACT price point they want to pay for a car in each market they are in. Think Wal Mart Scaled

  • wonwood wonwood Jun 24, 2014 6:57 AM Flag

    I have always been perplexed by the fact that INFN was supposed to have hands down the best technology from what I keep reading so if that is the case why wouldn't a CSCO who is sitting on $50 billion in cash snap them up? It wouldn't faze them at all and their have been times in the last 18 months they could have picked up the company for 1.25 billion, now maybe 1.75-2.0 billion but in either case a drop in the bucket for them. As a non technical (at least when it comes to optical networking) person it makes me wonder if INFN really has the superior product.

    CSCO has made a conglomerate out of buying up other companies, by my count over 100 with a market cap of greater than $100 million so they obviously are not shy about buying out another company if they like their technology.

  • wonwood wonwood May 21, 2014 10:01 AM Flag

    FYI - If you were 18 and saved $30 a week until retirement age at 67 and earned 9% return on your investment you would have $1,278,909.32 at your 67th birthday. Might not be significant for you but it would for most people.

  • wonwood wonwood May 21, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Good article. I have never really understood why the Civic CNG doesn't sell better. Obviously there are infrastructure issues and limited refueling options in most areas but there are plenty of options in CA, Oklahoma and North Texas. The article mentions traveling 220 miles in a week for $14.00. At 6 cents per mile fuel cost compared to the 35 cents per mile my fleet of construction pickup trucks get with ladder racks and tools installed I would be better for my construction crews to park the trucks on the job sites and buy them a cng civic to drive back and forth to their houses every day.

  • wonwood wonwood May 5, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    I should know this but don't. I assume all CNG stations are self service. Do all LNG stations have to be manned when they are open? I have read you have to "suit up" in order to fill a LNG vehicle so I would assume practically speaking there needs to be a filling attendant to dispense the LNG. Is that correct?

  • wonwood wonwood Apr 28, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    No matter how great a company or how great the model the bottom line is that at some point they need to make a decent profit to justify their stock price. AMZN either needs to get 40X more profitable or be about $80 per share.

    As an investor you should be buying a stock based on getting a piece of the future profits. AMZN has to prove at somepoint there will be substantial profits. AAPL makes more in four hours than AMZN does all year. Think about it.

  • I have not looked at the gov't website for CNG station count since 2/18. At that time it there were 669. Just checked this morning and we are up to 698 in a little over two months. 29 new stations open in about 9 weeks is a pretty good pace considering the winter weather in Feb. and March. I fully expect to hit 800 stations in operation by the end of the 2014. Hopefully demand is growing as quick as station count. As always no idea how many new or existing are CLNE stations.

  • wonwood wonwood Mar 17, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    I am under the impression that nobody that programs at YAHOO finance actually uses the service. There is no way it could operate so bad otherwise. I have five separate portfolios I track. When I switch one to the other I get a error message about 80% of the time. I get old quotes, When I add a new symbol to a portfolio it add's it twice every time. When I update the cost paid ( I reset it every Jan 1 so I can track YTD performance) it errors if you do more than one symbol at a time so I have to save it 40 times, etc, etc, etc. I could go on for hours.

  • Reply to

    Has To Be Something To This Run

    by acts_111_231_111 Mar 7, 2014 11:00 AM
    wonwood wonwood Mar 7, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    I agree about buyout or rumors of buyout driving stock. Keep in mind that institutions and insiders own 90% of float. That leaves only about 6 million shares for the private investors. I don't consider myself a huge investor but I just figured out that I have 1/400th of the private investor float. It doesn't take a whole bunch of money to move the price on this stock.

  • Reply to

    Revenue Projection Part 1

    by xyzinfo Mar 3, 2014 8:41 PM
    wonwood wonwood Mar 4, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    XYZ do you know if the "break even for a LNG station is about 20 trucks" includes depreciation and a overhead percentage? I suspect but don't know that the "break even" is what it cost to operate the station with manpower and utility cost. I doubt it includes the depreciation and any corporate overhead cost. My point being that above "break even" still might not be true bottom line profit. I hope so but am a little skeptical.

    By the way, does anyone know what the depreciation schedule would be on building a $2 million dollar station? I assume the cost cannot be taken all at once and have to be depreciated at no longer than 10 years. In that case if you make $200k per year it's not going to add to profit, just cash flow.

    Wood

  • wonwood wonwood Feb 28, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    I doubt there is a simple answer there. When you use the term "profitable" that could mean does the revenue exceed the cost of the gas and any attendants working? I would think that is reasonable. If you assume "profitable" includes cost above depreciation and/or development and construction cost i would think not. You have to remember that when one of these stations opens it's not like there is a huge pent up demand. Nobody is going to have CNG/LNG vehicles before a station opens. At best case you hope some of the demand is simultaneous. You might get a few transient customers but not enough to be material.

  • In the last four weeks 8 CNG stations opened and 2 LNG stations according to the gov't website. A little slower than the last few months pace but I expect weather was less than optimal for construction in most areas. I am still thinking we could see 200 new CNG stations online this year.

    Wood

  • Gov't website updated this morning. 16 new CNG stations online in last four weeks and 2 new LNG. I really think 250 new CNG stations are possible this year. As always no idea how many of these are CLNE openings, the site does not say.

  • Reply to

    Station Count

    by wonwood Dec 17, 2013 7:17 AM
    wonwood wonwood Dec 18, 2013 6:57 AM Flag

    Ironically I own a fleet of about 40 service vehicles and would consider changing but.......... looking at the map, I think I might live in the lowest density of CNG stations per capita. If you draw a 100 mile radius from my business there is one station for about 5 million people.

  • Reply to

    Station Count

    by wonwood Dec 17, 2013 7:17 AM
    wonwood wonwood Dec 18, 2013 6:53 AM Flag

    Yahoo won't let me post the link but if you google "natural gas station locator" it's the first hit. I think it says AFDC.enegery.gov etc etc.

  • wonwood by wonwood Dec 17, 2013 7:17 AM Flag

    Gov't site updated for the month. 12 new CNG stations online and 3 new LNG in the last four weeks. Pretty consistently adding 3 stations a week over the last four months. I would think adding 200 new stations in 2014 is pretty realistic. Disclaimer: - No idea how many are CLNE stations, the gov't site doesnt show that unless you want to click on all 700 dots and record them one at at time.

  • wonwood by wonwood Nov 18, 2013 6:51 AM Flag

    US gov't website updated today. 14 new CNG stations opened in the last 30 days. The pace appears to be quickening. Disclaimer - No idea if any were CLNE or not.

    Wood

  • Reply to

    return to shareholders ??

    by champchange Oct 28, 2013 6:41 PM
    wonwood wonwood Oct 29, 2013 8:49 AM Flag

    Great quarterly earnings but very poor next quarter guidance. That will weight on the stock pretty heavily. I don't know how you can forecast a decrease in earnings next quarter that is 60% below this quarter unless the Chlor Akali business is going to fall off the map.

  • Reply to

    New to CLNE...

    by plclifton Oct 21, 2013 9:56 PM
    wonwood wonwood Oct 22, 2013 9:23 AM Flag

    The basic issues with CLNE stock price. The ultimate cliche fits perfectly here. The chicken VS egg. Nobody is going to buy vehicles without having fueling stations. Nobody want's to build stations without demand in place. CLNE stepped up and committed to building the stations even when no LNG vehicles are on the road. They will come eventually, the problem is in the mean time they loose money on each additional station they open. Investors typically don't have the patience and every time earnings come out they freak out because of another loss even thought that's what the analyst are forecasting.

    The simple fact is that you can't build a 3 million dollar station to fuel 30-40 vehicles and make that profitable. However the day will come soon that those 30-40 will swell to 300-400 or even 3000 and then the money will come rolling in. It's just takes time to ramp up. Westport is producing most of the engines needed

  • Reply to

    Fuel Preference

    by chris_cola2000 Oct 10, 2013 12:11 AM
    wonwood wonwood Oct 21, 2013 7:38 AM Flag

    If you are a investor in CLNE everyone should take the 15 minutes and watch the LNG VS CNG video on the CLNE website. It talks about the Pro's and Cons of both. It's very difficult to get fast fill CNG at most locations as you have to a location that is on an existing gas line and a location where there is ample electrical service. To fill four vehicles simultaneously take a 500HP compressor. To do 8 would be 1000 HP. There is not that much grid capacity sitting idle. I am in the electrical business and have been waiting for one year for my utility to bring me enough service to hook up a 800HP chipper and a wood yard.

    If you are more than 20-30 miles from a decent size city chance are you are not going to have either one of those two variable available for a long time. Also to note a major constraint may be permitting. I talked to a local station operator (Quarles) in my area who has a joint venture station with CLNE about 20 miles away. I asked what it would take to get one in my area (within 3 miles there are probably 600+ fleet vehicles plus a Fed EX dist. center that sits on NG pipeline on site). He told me they had inquired in our county and they county said no way. I think the regulators are feel very safe permitting a gas station but for some reason seem very afraid of a NG station in a densely populated area. Go figure. I am sure as they gain traction

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