I agree about buyout or rumors of buyout driving stock. Keep in mind that institutions and insiders own 90% of float. That leaves only about 6 million shares for the private investors. I don't consider myself a huge investor but I just figured out that I have 1/400th of the private investor float. It doesn't take a whole bunch of money to move the price on this stock.
XYZ do you know if the "break even for a LNG station is about 20 trucks" includes depreciation and a overhead percentage? I suspect but don't know that the "break even" is what it cost to operate the station with manpower and utility cost. I doubt it includes the depreciation and any corporate overhead cost. My point being that above "break even" still might not be true bottom line profit. I hope so but am a little skeptical.
By the way, does anyone know what the depreciation schedule would be on building a $2 million dollar station? I assume the cost cannot be taken all at once and have to be depreciated at no longer than 10 years. In that case if you make $200k per year it's not going to add to profit, just cash flow.
I doubt there is a simple answer there. When you use the term "profitable" that could mean does the revenue exceed the cost of the gas and any attendants working? I would think that is reasonable. If you assume "profitable" includes cost above depreciation and/or development and construction cost i would think not. You have to remember that when one of these stations opens it's not like there is a huge pent up demand. Nobody is going to have CNG/LNG vehicles before a station opens. At best case you hope some of the demand is simultaneous. You might get a few transient customers but not enough to be material.
In the last four weeks 8 CNG stations opened and 2 LNG stations according to the gov't website. A little slower than the last few months pace but I expect weather was less than optimal for construction in most areas. I am still thinking we could see 200 new CNG stations online this year.
Gov't website updated this morning. 16 new CNG stations online in last four weeks and 2 new LNG. I really think 250 new CNG stations are possible this year. As always no idea how many of these are CLNE openings, the site does not say.
Ironically I own a fleet of about 40 service vehicles and would consider changing but.......... looking at the map, I think I might live in the lowest density of CNG stations per capita. If you draw a 100 mile radius from my business there is one station for about 5 million people.
Yahoo won't let me post the link but if you google "natural gas station locator" it's the first hit. I think it says AFDC.enegery.gov etc etc.
Gov't site updated for the month. 12 new CNG stations online and 3 new LNG in the last four weeks. Pretty consistently adding 3 stations a week over the last four months. I would think adding 200 new stations in 2014 is pretty realistic. Disclaimer: - No idea how many are CLNE stations, the gov't site doesnt show that unless you want to click on all 700 dots and record them one at at time.
Great quarterly earnings but very poor next quarter guidance. That will weight on the stock pretty heavily. I don't know how you can forecast a decrease in earnings next quarter that is 60% below this quarter unless the Chlor Akali business is going to fall off the map.
The basic issues with CLNE stock price. The ultimate cliche fits perfectly here. The chicken VS egg. Nobody is going to buy vehicles without having fueling stations. Nobody want's to build stations without demand in place. CLNE stepped up and committed to building the stations even when no LNG vehicles are on the road. They will come eventually, the problem is in the mean time they loose money on each additional station they open. Investors typically don't have the patience and every time earnings come out they freak out because of another loss even thought that's what the analyst are forecasting.
The simple fact is that you can't build a 3 million dollar station to fuel 30-40 vehicles and make that profitable. However the day will come soon that those 30-40 will swell to 300-400 or even 3000 and then the money will come rolling in. It's just takes time to ramp up. Westport is producing most of the engines needed
If you are a investor in CLNE everyone should take the 15 minutes and watch the LNG VS CNG video on the CLNE website. It talks about the Pro's and Cons of both. It's very difficult to get fast fill CNG at most locations as you have to a location that is on an existing gas line and a location where there is ample electrical service. To fill four vehicles simultaneously take a 500HP compressor. To do 8 would be 1000 HP. There is not that much grid capacity sitting idle. I am in the electrical business and have been waiting for one year for my utility to bring me enough service to hook up a 800HP chipper and a wood yard.
If you are more than 20-30 miles from a decent size city chance are you are not going to have either one of those two variable available for a long time. Also to note a major constraint may be permitting. I talked to a local station operator (Quarles) in my area who has a joint venture station with CLNE about 20 miles away. I asked what it would take to get one in my area (within 3 miles there are probably 600+ fleet vehicles plus a Fed EX dist. center that sits on NG pipeline on site). He told me they had inquired in our county and they county said no way. I think the regulators are feel very safe permitting a gas station but for some reason seem very afraid of a NG station in a densely populated area. Go figure. I am sure as they gain traction
The US gov't site finally updated yesterday. Seems to happen every four to six weeks. Results 13 new stations added in the last five weeks for CNG. Not all CLNE but a good sign. Also 10 LNG stations opened in last two months (forgot to write down the numbers the last couple of times for LNG) but there were only 32 open in August and now 42.
He makes 378K per year. If he was paid $5 million a year you would be complaining. He makes a very average or below average salary for a man who is co founder of a billion dollar market cap company. If he want's to sell 3% of his holding to cash in on his success that' not unusual. As a stock holder you would rather him do that than have management line their pockets with huge salaries.
The guy probably just wants to buy a vacation home or something similiar and wanted to free up $1 million bucks.
At first glance 36 trucks doesn't sound like that much but at 1,000,000 gallons at $2.75 that is nearly 1% of current yearly sales. 20 of these type of announcements a year and you have 20% growth.
Not saying that PJ is correct, I have no idea. However just thinking out loud, I wonder how hard it would be to make their planned sites at Pilot/Flying J combo sites with both LNG and CNG? I know that CNG has some very large power usage requirements to run the compressor that might not be available at all installations but there are bound to be some that could sustain the extra load. To me that would be the holy grail where you could get passenger cars and fleet vehicles that are either CNG or LNG. Assuming you could convert LNG to CNG on site that gets you over one of the main hurdles or CNG which is that you have to be on a NG main line to support the demand. I have over 30 pickup trucks and half past a Flying J with LNG. If it was CNG I would start buying the new fords but right now I have no fueling option.
I would like to punch Mr. Binz squarely in his face. He like all the idiots that thank we are all going to be driving electric cars in twenty years are MASSIVELY out of touch with reality. They live in big cities where there will be charging stations everywhere and people only travel 10 miles a day. I live in a subdivision of 100 homes ten miles from the city limits of a 1.2 million person city and I can't even get cable or a high speed internet connection after 20 years of the internet. How do they think we are all going to have charging stations for our prius's in that time frame?
I don't think a note offering is a bad thing. The more I have been thinking about it I have been wondering how CLNE (or any other company short of XOM, GE) can gear up station construction if CNG really takes off. For example one of the perfect fleets to target is the School Bus Market. There are 16,000 school districts in the US. If use took off and 1/2 the fleet was to change in the next 10 years that would mean 800 new stations a year just for school buses. CLNE building 150 per year for ALL of the country is not going to work if we get wide spread public acceptance.
In My Opinion within five years they need to be able to roll out 300 - 400 stations per year which is going to take a lot of capital and more note offerings down the road. It takes the need to raise more capital as possibly a sign that they are being overwhelmed with opportunities.
I am sure they are working on it but for small fleets of 30-200 vehicles they need to come up with some type of skid mounted system where the user can pour a concrete pad on site and all they would have to do is drop the skid onto the pad and connect to a NG connection. That's the only way they could possibly meet demand if we start getting widespread adoption.
Also if I was CLNE I would lock in long term money as much as possible with interest rates low. They will only be higher five years from now.
I will be anyone on this board $100 that CLNE will at some time in the next twelve months be above $14.00. That's a 15% return, I will take it and run to the bank.
If you own shares why not sell and go elsewhere if that is your opinion. If you don't own shares then why the heck are you hanging around the message board talking down the company? Just providing a public service? I think not.......