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General Motors Company Message Board

woodsoncz 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 30, 2014 10:47 AM Member since: Feb 2, 2007
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  • You are now saying;

    "You see woody, it's clear that even you can't read. I didn't say the price would go up because of the dividend PAYMENT date (and the days prior to it). It's the ex-dividend date that could see a share price rise (and the days prior to it)."

    I would and I'm arguing that it's your position that you believe the price will rise due to the dividend payment. I am aware that you said "ex-dividend"! However, the logic is the same!!!!!!!!!!! Are you seriously, trying to split hairs by the phasing of sentences and completely disregarding the fact that the end logic is exactly the same? Persy that is called deflection! So, let's get you back on target being that you seem to have forgotten you own logic. Below is what you said earlier;

    "woody,

    Here are two more things that will likely push GM shares higher over the next 2 weeks
    - May sales
    - ex-dividend date of June 10" -May 28th 12:33pm

    The ex-divided date is the date that someone needs to be vested by in order to collect the up coming dividend payment. Thus, your above statement implies that YOU believe the price will rise due to buying by people that want to get in in time to collect the next "dividend" payment. In either case, the driving motivation in your logic is the dividend!

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 29, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    I'm here for entertainment and it helps some with strategies to talk them out and have them questioned. On money, yes I am making it. Anyone that has really read my post ought to realize that I'm not 'funnin'.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 29, 2014 6:56 PM Flag

    Yeah, I love how Persy in one breath says that investors are up 23% by using a DCA strategy just after saying his own DCA is -$1.05. All the while completely avoiding my bond arguement against his 'the dividend payment will drive up the price' claim this morning.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 29, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    hummmm.... ok Persy, I believe we started with you having the logic that the up coming dividend would push the price up. This whole thing you just spouted off about buying opportunities since the IPO strikes me as a "should-a-could-a-would" kind of logic. The main reason I think that, is if that could have been done and you have been investing in GM for quite some time, why is your average cost of shares at 35.5? It seems to me that you are in a 2.96% LOSS, not a 23% gain. Even if you factor in the first and the upcoming dividend you're still at a 1.29% loss.
    Now, as far as that other "baloney" are you going to even try to address it? Tell me if you think that the price will rise significantly enough to break the down trend that GM is still in due to an up coming dividend payment, why didn't GM snap out of it in March instead of pushing to new lows? Also, why hasn't the sales report or earnings snapped it out of the trend?

    You're dividend theory is flawed! First off, to keep a stock climbing you need new investors coming in not MM cutting their holdings. Second, why take the risk of having your dividends eaten up by buying a down trending stock when you can buy bonds with higher and FIXED yield and less risk? Your argument just doesn't make sense.Did you factor in bond yields and how they relate to stocks in your analysis?
    Let me help you some, bond yields are starting to decline, meaning that they are being bought, normally that means that money is coming out of equities into bonds. That is normally a signal that the markets are beginning to correct. Have you noticed the indexes are having trouble punching higher with significant force?
    So, lets tally up our results since we started haggling here. I have popped off 2 successful shorts on GM since early March grossing about $6 a share on them together and just this past week popped off one on FB for a little over $3 a share. That brings me to around $9 on my positions over the past couple of months, you -1.05!

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 29, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Oh, yeah, I'm back in today at 34.53.

    And, yes I agree TA is just a tool that's why I watch things like interest rates, yields, consumer confidence, production, sales, M1 and M2 just to name a few. One needs to know how a typical cycle moves and the conditions in order to have TA work. Or better said, work with better results.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 29, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Hey Persy,
    First off I'd like to ask, again, what's your average entry price for your position in GM? Remember, to get a true average cost of your position the average cost needs to be a weighed average based on the number of shares at each price.

    Thanks for the heads up on "things will likely push GM shares higher". The first, May sales, oh come on Persy, we saw the results of April sales...... No significant upward move. It might come in nice, however, CPI is steadily increasing and retail sales and consumer confidence is lack luster at best relative to it. MM will watch those indicators more closely than what GM reports.

    Now, the dividend coming up, yeah that could cause it to float up some. However, if you're suggesting that it will reverse the down trend that GM is in on its own, I think you're telling yourself what you want to hear. I don't think the risk reward is there for any investors looking to collect a quick buck on dividends. There is still downside risk of a price drop due to GM trying to mine out any recall risks and the dividend isn't high enough to take the risk of a price drop. Here is what I mean, the dividend is 1.20, that means if the price drops just a $1.2 you've eaten up your return. In a high volume stock a price move like that can happen in a day, the range on May 20th was $1.34 and that was just one day. Furthermore, GM pays simi-annual, right? So, that would mean that only half of that $1.20 will be payed out making the incentive to buy even less. So, yes, I considered it in risks, I'm risking a 60 cent loss per share, due to dividends vs, an estimated 6-7 dollar gain if my price target is reached.

    Now, to chip at your dividend theory even more. Why, buy GM for the dividend at all? If an investor were looking at buy a company for a steady return why not buy corporate bonds? According to bonds online yields for a 5yr BBB rated corporate bond is running about 5.82. Note that's a rating higher than GM with lower risk. Anything else?

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 28, 2014 5:32 PM Flag

    Lol! Good one! I had thought about making similar jokes to the fact that they keep using the word buying in reference to taking a short position. Nice!

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 28, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Nice! Question though. You said you added some at that price earlier, right? So, what's your average entry price of all of the prices that you entered at?

    On that 34, that's one, but there seems to be a lot of levels between 35.70 and 33.5 that the price reacts with. I think the real test would be if GM can break over 35.7 on average volume +50% and stay above that line for a few days. If it can do that, then getting back above the H&S neck line would be more likely. Oh, that neckline is at about 36.14 which is also where the 200MA is. Anyway, that's a lot for GM to get past.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 28, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Oh hi Wesh, correct about what exactly?

    And, don't worry about me, I covered after that last dip because an opportunity came up in FB. Which I bought at 60.70 and closed today at 63.75. Now I'm just waiting for a signal to short GM again with a larger position.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 28, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Hummm..... 2 things there Cheb:

    1st, the point that I'm sure you should have gotten, he's boasting about a small gain when the larger picture shows that the price is still depressed.

    2nd, moving the wrong way? Really?

    Today high, 34.6, May 13th 35.19, May 8th 35.43, April 24th 35.7, March 6th 37.72. That doesn't seem to be the wrong way to me. Maybe, you're holding your chart upside down.

  • woodsoncz woodsoncz May 28, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Hilarious!!!!!! Persy, just hilarious!!!!!!! Up relative to what? I remember the last time you posted something similar. It was just after market close on May 13th. And, so far today's price is still down about 1.7% relative to that day's close. But, hey if it makes you feel good, go for it!

GM
34.71-0.14(-0.40%)Aug 27 4:03 PMEDT

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