watch what happens over the next three days
what's the PE of 1.25 per share plus cash, BBM, Iot, patents on a breakthrough product now guaranteed to grow?
With junk market dead to finance new projects in US shale,and a 40% depletion rate, how long before US oil drop back to 7M BOE a day...I think its going to be faster than people think and financing won't reappear after after those bonds take a major hit
"The tight-oil projects in places like North Dakota and Texas are thought to be especially sensitive to price — since these wells decline faster than conventional wells, there is a continuous need for drilling rigs and financing."
well then maybe the 11 month collapse is finally coming to an end...the stock is trading back to April 2102 when the revenues were 150M per qtr. Do you have an explanation why the won't just sell the bad debt? they've already taken most of the loss
I betcha they are provided the needed input
How so..clueless isn't very specific..they write off 15% of the debt..take the loss and sell it..the company makes 200M EBITDA..where am I wrong?
1. They have the entire system remodeled to the new look and sales are 50% higher than two years ago
2. they can change the approvals on credit to a minimum of 550 and that eld solve all forward delinquency issues but would have a slight negative impact on comps but who cares
3. The operating business is highly profitable with EBITDA over 200M next year
4. They can sell the reaged accounts and bad debt to third party and take a gain on the bad debt they have already written off and take a loss on the re-aged accounts from their stupid prior lending practices
5, They can continue to aggressively build units in FY 2016 with tough credit policy in place and I believe that is why they said they are still building 18 units next year
6. they 100's of millions in credit facility that they can tap into and payoff future debt from positive cash flow
who knows..maybe this was the plan all along
3.74 is not going BK..if its half they, not going BK...if its a third that, not going BK.....craziest thing I've ever seen..one fraudster analyst says bad debts are bad..I talked to him today..he has no idea what the bad debt book is below 550 credit score...if they are not lending with 0 percent financing anymore, and to premium customers, they are back to their old financing policies..
its that simple...supply will take a dramatic decline as rigs go down in the US shale market
Anyone who doesn't understand Penn West advantage of the marginal players, then they need to do some research..PWE can survive on 40 to 50 dollar oil for an extended period, unlike many other players..That's what the market is pricing in at 2.30 per share.
there is no replacement product for shale..it it goes down over 6 months it will take 4 qtrs to ramp back up and there will be no financing to do so anyway
the backlash on price will off the charts like in the past due to lack of supply.....January is when you will here plans of cap ex reduction in US and rigs going down
I still expect the price of PWE to be as ugh as 25 over the next three years or about 2x BV
at 130 to 140 BOE per day
Actually..they have been more right than all the others over the years on earnings
Alos..B Riley, who knows CONNS best over the years, says 75 cents per share NEXT QTR
Seriously, do you think they would say they wrote off 12 month at 10 percent default rate and then they will write off again after saying bad debt provisions will go down from here??
Its been my experience that kitchen sink qtrs have been followed a northward move in the share price..not this..this is crazy....jeez, they had a couple of bad qtrs and they lent to the wrong people but they have stopped that practice and sales are just fine
So....I understand re-aging of accounts went up but that's happened before, and there is a big difference between 3.74 per share and going BK...the wrote of the 12 months forward of bad debts and currently bad debts are at the top of the range of 10%..lets be clear, they wrote off bad debt to kitchen sink the qtr..that is my opinion..you either believe management or you don't.If they are ling, they literally go to jail. Do your think they would risk that?.very much looking forward to the first Jan update...
Yesterday Conn’s reported disappointing 3Q results almost entirely due to a much higher than expected bad debt provision (LPS of $0.08 was well-below the consensus EPS forecast of $0.68). The company’s retail segment held up well with comps down just 1% against an extremely difficult comparison, gross margins up despite elevated warehouse costs, and G&A pressured by higher advertising costs due to the timing of store openings. Even finance income was only a little lower than we expected despite higher delinquencies. However, the root of the problem yesterday, prompting a 40% drop in the share price, was a bad debt provision that was about 2x what was expected. This primarily resulted from what we would characterize as temporary or one-time items that should provide respite in future quarters. General management commentary was neutral to favorable, and we still expect significant earnings upside in CY15/FY16. But, we are reducing our estimates, now expecting EPS of $1.97 and $3.74 for FY15 and FY16, down from $2.93 and $4.04, respectively. Concurrently, we are reducing our PT from $62 to $52 to reflect both our estimate changes and a lower assumed target multiple. However, we believe we have incorporated sufficiently conservative forecasts providing opportunity for upside in CY16 if credit recovers from current levels.
trading for net 700M with 9B in proven reserves..not going BK
Buy of lifetime..truly
Cap ex front end loaded and only 200M in first half..they can sit it out
Big time..I don't think I've ever seen a stock trade this low when it is pretty clear that they will do at least 90 cents Christmas qtr...
my mistake..its based on 86 dollars canadian so funds flow will be negative impacted by another 130M..so we are currently looking at 750M to 800M funds flow at current levels
funds flow of about 950M at 75 Canadian..we are at 73 right now