Another "nice" call, Nostradamus!
Re another one of your diastrous calls: "I can already see DMND in 40s after earnings." do you want to qualify WHICH earnings period your were referring to? From what you wrote it sure seemed like you were referring to the results that were recently released. While good, and the stock did react positively, DMND is very close to its 52 week high, BUT, it's NOT EVEN CLOSE to the "40's"; DMND needs to appreciate by over 20% to get to the "40's"!!! (in time it very well might, but patience grasshopper).
I did write that IF DMND had hit the "40's", I would welcome a serving of crow.
Where would you like your crow delivered?
Yes, DF once owned Alpro along with Silk, Horizon and a few other brands. DF spun those brands creating a separate, publicly traded company called Whitewave. According to S. A. piece, White Wave "... will begin manufacturing the products in-house as opposed to outsourcing production."
I'll tweak my original question: Who has manufactured WWAV's outsourced plant based beverages? I'm guessing not STKL, since this brand is overseas, but I'm curious what others think. Bison??
Are you ever "right"???
Miss you on the DMND board.
What's that? Oh I see, you only post when a stock is down, but not up.
How about next time you post you state the percentage weight of your FWM holding relative to your entire portfolio; number of shares owned is not meaningful.
Whenever you invest in a fund, you should have a legitimately LONG TERM horizon. Of course, if some macro issue pops up, one may want to take action. It is not easy to buy a fund and then see only higher prices. I say set it and forget it! I rarely look at my fund positions compared to individual equities. I've been long biotech for 13+ years...I bought relatively near the "high", only to see the value of my position get cut in half. This position has more than doubled; not great, but not too bad...better than VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, my default benchmark.
I watch Jeopardy! from time to time, but not religiously (I first watched when Art Fleming was the host!)
I happened to turn on the TV just as Alex was reading the following answer under the category "Snack Fact":
"In April 2011 Diamond Foods bought this brand of crisps in a can for $2.35 billion"
Dude buzzed in and responded "What are Pringles" and Alex said "correct".
Oh what could have been....
The announcement of the ill fated deal was what alerted me to DMND (I'm long PG, the seller of Pringles).
While many lauded the proposed deal, I was wondering if DMND was biting off more than it could chew, but we will never know. Will DMND's products be under the same ownership of Pringles some day?
I did get around to reading (somewhat quickly) the transcript. While walnuts were mentioned, I don't believe almonds were. I have no idea what the breakdown of DMND's nut portfolio is, but almond sales are growing. In a year or so, we will know whether the drought will have had an impact on next year's walnut crop. I'm surprised no one asked about walnut SUPPLIERS, you know, the ones DMND didn't play fair with...
Re water for agriculture:
From the "Almond Crunch" story: "The California State Water Project, which supplies drinking water to two-thirds of Californians, has taken the unprecedented decision to allocate no water for agriculture this year. Zero. That means growers will be forced to rely on ground water on their property or water they can buy from other irrigation districts. It won’t amount to much, however, and it will be pricey."
I do like the increase in margins.
Header is the title of a S.A. piece that was published 3/10; it (and reader comments) may be of interest to some; it can be found under the (dreaded lol) BIB quote.
"Wow, Geron Corp (GERN) is killing us today. "
I can't imagine the 60% drop will have a significant impact on FBIOX's NAV given GERN's $220M market cap compared to FBIOX's $11B NAV, right?? Assuming FBIOX holds OXGN, same concept, but even more so; it's market cap (presumably prior to today's move) is $14 million!
These types of moves is exactly why I own a fund rather than try to pick indiviual biotech stocks.
I suggest you read the cc transcript; after having done so, I am more optimistic about DMND's future and am pleased with the current management team.
I say your post is full of "spin"!
Thanks; obviously I have yet to review the call. I don't know DMND's nut breakdown, but I know almond sales have been brisk. It is not surprising that walnuts are irrigated, but didn't I recently read that CA is cutting off water supply to agriculture in lieu of other demand? From what I have read re almonds, the drought is not just a one year issue (and I'd think the same would be true of walnuts, but not according to Driscoll).
Of course, any cost increase DMND incurs may be pased on to the consumer (easier said than done?). I eat a lot of almonds compared to the average American that ate 1.3 pounds in 2008 and 1.8 pounds in 2012. I buy at WFM bulk. A year ago the price was 5.49/lb and now 6.99/lb and I still buy.
Does STKL do business with WWAV? If so, does this factor into the equation?:
"The European segment is not as broad or profitable as the North American one, but it is growing at very comparable rates. Alpro, WWAV's signature brand in Europe, has seen very strong demand for its almond and hazelnut beverages. In an attempt to maximize the profits from these products, 2014 will be the year that WWAV will begin manufacturing the products in-house as opposed to outsourcing production."
From a Seeking Alpha post, titled "Is White Wave's Growth Potential Worth Buying?" dated 3/8, posted under WWAV quote.
As mug noted, their are some good options for the freed up cash from an Opta sale, but IMO, more importantly is what you stated in your last paragraph.
"One would think that going forward this cost can be lessened."
Any suggestions? To me it seems pretty simple: supply v demand.
82% of the global almond crop comes from CA. It seems to be a certainty the NEXT year's harvest will be down.
To learn more, check out the Mar 11 story below WWAV (why YahooFinance didn't place it below DMND...): "Almond crunch: California drought withers world supply"
Even if FBIOX held a position in LJPC, today's move would not impact FBIOX' NAV very much.
TINY market cap!
Strange how the MF piece doesn't show up under STKL quote; I read it yesterday via HAIN.
"Will 2014 Be the Turnaround Year for SunOpta" Key word: "Will"