Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

wooglin_kai 285 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Apr 3, 1999
  • Reply to

    ORGANIC HAS EXPLODED

    by mugnmunch May 17, 2013 9:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai 17 hours ago Flag

    Over the years, I determined that I do just as well if I (mostly) hold what I own and not play musical chairs with my positions.
    I like the oft quoted "buy the fund company rather than the fund company's funds". I've held TROW (but have sold some shares) for almost 18 years (if I had reinvested my divs from the get go...LOL).
    I've been long BEN, come May 29, for ten years, but have sold a tad. The ETF drain has and does concern me.
    Other long term holdings:
    JNJ
    CL
    HAIN
    INTC (20 years--have sold 3/4 of holding)
    JPM
    AMT
    CCI
    SBAC
    TRC
    XOM (gifted to me 7/1/71)
    Some blueish chips and a few others. I have sold some shares in most of the above. While the ride has been bumpy at times, over the long haul, I'm pretty content with the returns of the above issues.

    Unfortunately there's no dress rehearsal for life and investing. If I were to start over, I would have invested much more in Vanguard's Total Market Index Fund; I first invested in this fund in 1992. I used to keep "track" of my investments mostly in my head...not a good idea. Over twenty years ago, I started to accurately track my performance v various benchmarks. Some years I beat the benchmarks and some years I don't; hence my wish I had put more into VTSAX years ago. VTSAX is a much less emotional holding and therefore it's a lot easier to "set it and forget it". Tax efficient to boot! Of course, I have fun investing in individual equities. Reinvesting divs allows one to appreciate the wonders of compounding. That said, almost all of my additional investment dollars go into VTSAX (I practice what I preach LOL).
    Oh yeah, I've held STKL for some time as well.

    (To think I sold AAPL & MCD in the mid to late '80s...there are others...)

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Way over priced: WFM vs KR

    by jsteveco730 May 21, 2013 6:31 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai 21 hours ago Flag

    You should dig a bit deeper than just market cap.
    How about considering each company's balance sheet? (hint DEBT LEVELS)

  • Motley Fool 5/20 post below KMI quote.
    Good perspective re effect of rising rates.
    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    ORGANIC HAS EXPLODED

    by mugnmunch May 17, 2013 9:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai 22 hours ago Flag

    I too hold many of my positions for many years; come July 1, it will have been 42 YEARS for one position.
    Dividends are part of an investment's TOTAL RETURN. It's real easy to figure out STKL's total return, since it does not pay a div (neither good nor bad as far as I'm concerned). I do recall many years ago about you positing about the day STKL does pay a div.
    My point is it is good to be diversified, since not all turns out as planned. For example: STKL.

  • Reply to

    Bond Bear Market will hit TROW very hard

    by ex.goldbug May 21, 2013 3:22 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai 22 hours ago Flag

    If both bond and equity markets dive, obviously it won't be a good time for any asset manager.
    FYI: TROW's AUM are approx 18% fixed income; it is mostly an equity shop. A lot of funds are retirement related and those assets are pretty sticky. Markets go up, markets go down. If one looks at the long haul, both the equity market and TROW have done very well. My biggest concern is the ETF drain.
    FYI: BEN's AUM are approx 47% fixed income!
    I'm not good at timing (AND YOU???) Please refer to the post you wrote March 26 "Take profits" and also your Oct 10, 2012 post "Continued October Mkt. Selloff--TRO (sic) could fall to $45 - 50 area"--in this post, you suggested it was "Time to lighten up."
    Since Oct 10, BEN is up 35.6% and TROW is up 28.1% since that day!
    Bottom line: investors in TROW and BEN (I'm long both and have been for years) have done well to ride the ups and downs of the market and not try to time the market. I've been reinvesting my divs.
    What will the future bring? Who knows. I do know that strong markets make some people anxious. Since I have no need for my LONG TERM investment funds NOW, I'm content.
    Good thing you are an "ex" gold bug LOL!
    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    dividend increase

    by gopher_catcher May 16, 2013 12:54 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 21, 2013 4:27 PM Flag

    keebon, apparently you don't read what you post!!!

    You posted:

    "As a result of the Federal Reserve’s non-objection to U.S. Bancorp’s plan to increase its dividend rate, and the Company’s desire to conform the timing of this and future dividend increases with the publication of the annual CCAR results, the Company will recommend in June that the board of directors approve an increase to the annual dividend rate beginning with the second quarter dividend payable in July 2013."

    And then the next day you posted:

    " I have not yet heard any explanation for management's decision to delay the dividend increase from March to June. That, to me, was unpredictable behavior and the market does not like unpredictable behavior, unless it's to the up side. Hence, the price has lagged since March."

    Yes, the market does not like uncertainty; perhaps that's why USB explained the div delay.

    "Alex: I'll take PASSIVE AGRESSIVE posters for $200"

    YIKES!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    May 29th Oaktree deadline

    by fredexley May 21, 2013 11:45 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 21, 2013 1:25 PM Flag

    "If May 29th comes and goes without any restructuring of DMND's debt"
    The above is my expectation, hence I will "think" the same as I do right now!
    Cheers.

  • wooglin_kai by wooglin_kai May 21, 2013 12:56 PM Flag

    "I'll take advantage of an unwarranted price spike to short this one [on Thursday]. LWAY is a great company, but it's just reneged on a commitment to not spend money on expanding capacity, buying a plant to quadruple capacity instead. And [free cash flow] is down in comparison with last year's Q1. Time to exit."

    I'm not familiar with LWAY's "commitment to not spend money on expanding capacity". Seems like a very strange "commitment" given the company has been growing and presumably wants to continue to grow.
    Rich Smith: Riddle me this: how does a GROWTH company grow without expansion? Contract manufacturing perhaps? My take is that LWAY took advantage of the opportunity when Golden Guernsey Dairy was auctioned. Julie seems pretty positive re future sales and I believe she said current capacity would not be enough to meet future demand in the near future.

    Cash flow may be more concerning. Apparently not to management given the 8 cent dividend. Yippee! I'll be able to buy a few more quarts of kefir with the additional cent. The real beneficiaries are the family members (nice pay raise from 2011 to 2012 for Julie and Ed and nice "consulting work" for mommy).
    8 cent dividend = approx $1.3M. Dairy cost (before capital improvements): $7.4M. I'm "sure" management knows what they are doing; I'd have no problem if this micro cap GROWTH company didn't pay a dividend and instead applied the "savings" to paying for the dairy or for some NON social media advertising.

    Bottom line: company appears to be doing well and I don't get why Rich Smith is opposed to a GROWTH company buying additional capacity.

  • Reply to

    split after ex-dividend?

    by hilemann May 14, 2013 11:30 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 20, 2013 2:07 PM Flag

    "educated" LOL!!!!
    "any ideas" Well yes; as I posted before, I would NOT expect CVX to announce a split EXCEPT when it also announces a dividend (using history as a guide).
    Next div announcement: give or take a day or two: July 24.

  • Reply to

    Doubt

    by matiasvdelc May 20, 2013 10:28 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 20, 2013 1:30 PM Flag

    Buy AFTER the split, since WFM will be "cheaper".

  • Reply to

    takeover chatter?

    by bluebloodedtrader May 16, 2013 2:17 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 20, 2013 9:09 AM Flag

    Well thank you very much, youngster. In time, presumably you will gain some social skills.

  • Reply to

    Q for the board-

    by diabeticinvestor May 12, 2013 5:56 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 2:59 PM Flag

    Logic would dictate that the puts would be adjusted.

  • Reply to

    Will she give us 59 this week ?

    by jgiled May 13, 2013 8:15 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 2:23 PM Flag

    Of course, there was a "chance", but not a good one.
    In hindsight, HAIN did pretty well this week for us longs!!!

    Have you looked at LWAY lately?

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 12:48 PM Flag

    Sometimes what most people expect to happen does not happen. Only time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Short Covering (finally)???

    by wooglin_kai May 16, 2013 3:30 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 11:36 AM Flag

    Maybe the "more" and the market's very positive reaction to it has compelled some shorts to cover. For whatever reason, lil LWAY has always has a rather large short interest.

    How many years will it take for LWAY to run out of its new, mulitples larger than current, capacity?

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    Why the Volume and small down move on May 15th?

    by briguy1q2w May 16, 2013 9:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    Wow! A post on MBVT's board.
    I imagine a holder sold some or all of their holdings, hence the volume and the decline; I guessing not an insider but an institutional holder.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    ORGANIC HAS EXPLODED

    by mugnmunch May 17, 2013 9:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 10:08 AM Flag

    Yes, organic AND natural has indeed exploded as have the share prices of many associated companies; please note I wrote "many" and not all LOL.
    I guess this is why it's good to be diversified...

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 17, 2013 9:52 AM Flag

    Think your question out logically and you will discover the correct answer.
    (start with the fact there are two sides of every trade)

  • Reply to

    takeover chatter?

    by bluebloodedtrader May 16, 2013 2:17 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai May 16, 2013 4:59 PM Flag

    The "chatter" I'm hearing is that if Con Agra, the owner of Orville Redenbacher's Gourmet Popping Corn, sere to buy DMND, it would have to divest Pop Secret to appease the anti-trust folks.
    (Actually I'm not hearing anything, but stated the obvious). I also don't think DMND will be acquired in the near term. But heck, I've been wrong about DMND as an investment LOL.

  • wooglin_kai by wooglin_kai May 16, 2013 3:30 PM Flag

    626,440 shares were short A/O 4/30; a slight bit lower than the past twelve month average.
    In a couple weeks, we will see the next data.

HCBK
8.51-0.01(-0.06%)9:46 AMEDT