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Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. Message Board

wooglin_kai 353 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Apr 3, 1999
  • Reply to

    Question

    by dlavine78 Dec 12, 2014 10:16 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 12, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    More like 24%.
    Perhaps CVX got ahead of itself when it was trading mid 135.
    Perhaps CVX's decline has been overblown as well.
    At its high, CVX's RSI was around 87 (overbought)
    CVX's current RSI is approx. 29 (oversold)
    The above is all well and good, but who knows where CVX will be trading in two, five, ten years!
    I'm in the camp of holding for the foreseeable future and reinvesting my dividends.
    It will be interesting to see what the JUNE div payment will be; it will be announced around the last week of April (right around the corner--using long term parlance!)

  • Gotta love YahooF! Second attempt to post the following...
    For those interested, the weather channel's website (will those words pass Yahoo's filter?) has a story recalling recent crude rail disasters and there's a ten minute video. Story can be located near the site's top "The Dark Side to Your Cheap Gas" with a photo for several women.

  • Reply to

    Has anyone looked at Carl's other company?

    by jpaulgettytoo Dec 11, 2014 2:27 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 12, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    IEP holds positions in A LOT of stocks, although HAIN is no longer one of them, since that position was sold some time ago in the 70s or 80s.
    On another note, about three decades ago, I was once long Federal Mogul.
    To answer your question, no I haven't "looked".
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    FBIOX big drop Idiot Terms for me

    by justinmatias1985 Dec 10, 2014 7:57 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 12, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    This fund didn't have any net capital gains / capital gain distributions for many years.
    FBIOX paid a capital gain in 2000 and not another one until a very small one at year end 2011! Beginning with 2011, the fund has made cap gain distributions, but none near the size of the recent one.
    This should come as no surprise, if you view a long term chart of FBIOX. The fund did so so and then took off recently.
    What really matters is that the VALUE of your position has risen!
    Distributions are a consequence--there is no magic associated with distributions, but I get it, for some it's more FUN!!! to hold more shares at a lower NAV. Future performance is not related to number of shares, but simply the value of the holdings of the fund.
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    FBIOX big drop Idiot Terms for me

    by justinmatias1985 Dec 10, 2014 7:57 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 12, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    ph088,
    I try to learn from my errors, I man up and acknowledge when I make an unintended error and attempt to do better in the future.
    Another poster, in an attempt to divert the conversation? or simply seeking attention? continues to pound about an honest mistake I made months ago (referencing YahooF charts). To boot, she doesn't agree with Total Return info from a subscription Bloomberg terminal (If you ever watch CNBC (ugh!) or BloombergTV (on here at work), you've probably seen screen shots of trading desks with tons of BLOOMBERG screens; Bloomberg has a virtual monopoly with their analytics and message system, but again a certain poster doesn't agree with the results from a Bloomberg--denial?
    That said, this particular poster who has questioned analytics from Bloomberg shouldn't even have a say about percentage returns given she has demonstrated several times that she does not know how to accurately calculate percentages LOL!

    IMO, message boards are a venue to share ideas about investing and the mechanics of investing.
    That description fits my "agenda"

    I get how some people "bash" individual stocks. IMO, a person "bashing" a mutual fund is almost as silly as suggesting such a thing in the first place!
    Another poster thinks I have a hard on for IBB; I do not have a position in IBB. I simply reference IBB for what it is: a decent, investable proxy for the biotech sector.

    Biotech has been on a tear the past few years--particularly if one looks at a 15 year chart. It's fun during the upswing, but history shows there may be another down cycle (is that "bashing" or simply remaining grounded?)

    Tone doesn't always translate too well via words on a message board. I am a modest person and I DO know, from both personal and professional experiences, what I am talking (writing about), but I'm not infallible. What's great about life is that one can, if they so wish, use time and experiences to their advantage--it's called gaining wisdom!

    Cheers

  • Reply to

    The Smart Money is buying into CVX at these levels.

    by rbg5r Dec 10, 2014 8:37 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 12, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    I had the same thought!
    Of course, had shares split 3 : 1, CVX, as of this writing, would only be down about 53 cents a share compared to 1.60!!!

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    Why did you respond to a SPAMMER; it's history is littered with similar posts. YIKES!!!
    And while I'm at it, I'll ask another question:
    "If the stock moves up from here..."
    What does your crystal ball say if the stock DOES NOT MOVE UP FROM HERE?

  • Reply to

    recovery

    by dciarvella Dec 10, 2014 2:02 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    You say "trolling" I say being entertained.
    Are you still "invested" in this super spec?
    If so, how's that working out for you???
    Can you say "MARKET CAP SUB $1.5M"? Sure you can!
    YIKES!!!

  • Reply to

    FBIOX big drop Idiot Terms for me

    by justinmatias1985 Dec 10, 2014 7:57 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    Mutual funds are actively managed; meaning the portfolio manager actively buys and sells the fund's holdings. If one is willing to accept YahooFinance's info, FBIOX has annual portfolio turnover of 35% (about 1/3 of the holdings are sold per year). IF a fund has more NET short term and or long term capital gains, it will pay out most of those gains via either a short term or long term capital gain distribution. (If a fund's holdings earned dividend income, that would be paid out as "income". Most equity funds pay distributions once a year, near year's end, whereas bond funds typically pay out income more frequently.

    We all know that FBIOX has done well this year, as well as the past several years. It is not surprising that profits were taken from some positions during 2014. Since the gains outweighed any losses taken, the gains were recently distributed. Note: no short term gains were distributed.
    Investors have the option to either take the distribution(s) in cash or to have the distribution(s) reinvested into more shares. If the latter, this is actually a purchase of shares. The NAV is adjusted down by the amount of the distribution. Since most people want to remain fully invested, the opt to reinvest the distribution(s).
    Investors get more shares, but at a lower NAV. IAs others and I have previously noted, f the position is held in a taxable AC, the distribution(s) are taxable that year.
    There is no financial magic associated with capital gain distributions, but given human nature, from an emotional perspective, most people prefer to have more shares at a lower NAV!

    It is great that you have taken an active interest in investing given your relative young age.
    You didn't ask, but here's a few suggestions:
    If you have access to a 401K, try to contribute as much as you can; particularly if your employer has a match (that's FREE money).
    Consider investing in a ROTH IRA
    Consider investing in a Total Stock Market Index Fund
    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    ibb vs fbiox

    by jacobsonmatt73 Dec 9, 2014 6:14 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I have no idea why I was unable to post the following yesterday; second of two examples of hypothetical mutual funds; both perform identically with one paying cap gain distributions and the other not; end result: number of shares vary, BUT THE VALUE OF BOTH FUNDS are the same at the end point!
    Cap gain distributions are not a "bad" thing, I'm just trying to give the board some perspective--they are not magical.

    In January 2012, an investor invests $10,000 into The Ridiculous Fund II.
    Remarkably, this fund has the EXACT SAME returns as The Ridiculous Fund had nine years earlier, but now, given the 1986 tax law change, this fund does pay an annual CAPITAL GAIN distribution.
    12/1/12: the fund has appreciated 25% (NAV = 125—Riddle:I don't have to do the math for you, do I?) and on that day, the NAV was flat and a 10.00/sh distribution was made.
    12/1/12 NAV 125.00
    Distribution: 10.00 X 100 sh = $1000
    12/1/12 adjusted NAV: 125.00 – 10.00 = 115.00
    Reinvest distribution at adjusted NAV 1000/115 = 8.696 additional shares
    Total holding: 108.696 sh
    From 12/1/12 to year end, the fund declines 2%. .02 X 115 = 2.30 Current NAV: 115 - 2.30 = 112.70
    At year end, the VALUE of the initial $10,000 investment:
    108.696 sh x 112.70 = $12,250
    11 months pass, on 12/1/13, YTD appreciation = 18%
    Current NAV: .18 X 112.70 = 20.29 20.29 + 112.70 = 132.99
    12/1/13 the NAV was flat and a 7.00/sh distribution was made.
    12/1/13 NAV: 132.99
    Distribution: 7.00 X 108.696 = $761
    12/1/13 adjusted NAV: 132.99 – 7.00 = 125.99
    Reinvest distribution at adjusted NAV 761/125.99 = 6.040 additional shares
    Total holding: 114.736 sh
    From 12/1/13 to year end, the fund increases 1%. .01 X 125.99 = 1.26 Current NAV: 125.99 + 1.26 = 127.25
    At year end, the VALUE of the initial $10,000 investment:
    114.736 sh x 127.25 = $14,600

  • Reply to

    a buy out makes sense

    by jasyds6 Dec 11, 2014 10:22 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    When all else is FAILING, pull out the "buy out" card!

  • Reply to

    recovery

    by dciarvella Dec 10, 2014 2:02 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Just STOP with the wolf of weed dude. How many times to I have to tell you the dude got VERY LUCKY.
    Lucky with his timing
    Lucky he got some "cred" and SUCKERS (oops! I mean followers)
    Half the time you talk "fundamentals" and the other half you talk PUMPERS. Great recipe for non success.
    BTW: It's "you're" and NOT "your".
    How much are you being paid?

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    As far as the talking heads are concerned, they're actions are similar to everyday people.
    But since the heads are "professionals", yes, it would be preferable for them to own all of their recommendations.
    That said, I RARELY listen to the heads.

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 10:03 AM Flag

    I hear you tiglet, but ultimately each person is responsible for their own decisions; perhaps I am wrong, but there seems to be a trend that more and more people look for a scapegoat, rather than step up to the plate--and I'm not referring only to investments, rather our general society.
    I owned HCBK, having been entranced by its div, but sold prior to the MTB buyout proposal (what a cluster that has become!). Reinvested in FMER and since that time, FMER has outperformed HCBK.....by a whopping 123 bps! while the S&P Financial index has appreciated just shy of 40%. Obviously neither FMER nor HCBK have done that well and I lost a few bucks on HCBK, but I'm cool with my decisions and am not even beating myself up for them.
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    Billionaire Richard Kinder to Relinquish CEO Role

    by gutboy09 Dec 10, 2014 1:22 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    "The largest company (EPD) has sold off by close to 20% recently... KMI not so much.... what does that foretell"
    Perhaps that KMI is a better managed company and a better investment? Market is forward thinking.
    Cheers!

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by dianedmk Dec 10, 2014 10:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 11, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Thanks for the info, bulldog...my father was a member of Trumbull.

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by dianedmk Dec 10, 2014 10:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 10, 2014 4:40 PM Flag

    "I covered the short by mid-week, last week."
    Cool--that will be reflected in the next short interest report.
    Cheers

  • wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 10, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Are you sure it was Cramer who told you to buy CVX and not a little voice in your head?
    What do you do?
    Here's a suggestion: grow a pair and take responsibility for your own actions (assuming you actually own shares in any public company)

  • Reply to

    short interest

    by dianedmk Dec 10, 2014 10:42 AM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 10, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    diane,
    I just checked the Nasdaq site. Yup, short interest INCREASED by over 44 million shares or 37.6%!
    Data A/O 11/28.
    Deal closed 11/26, but as we know, many MLP holders didn't receive their KMI shares on 11/26 that MAY be used to cover their KMI short. I believe there will be a significant decline in KMI's short interest when the mid Dec report is released.
    That said, I am a bit surprised the number of KMI shares short rose so much near the closing of the deal where I imagine (but have not checked) the arb would be less attractive. In other words, perhaps there are "new" KMI shorts and the short interest will be much higher than when the deal was announced--of course, there are more KMI shares outstanding now as well!
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    ibb vs fbiox

    by jacobsonmatt73 Dec 9, 2014 6:14 PM
    wooglin_kai wooglin_kai Dec 10, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Notice how $10K invested in a fund that DID NOT pay a cap gain distribution had the SAME value at the end as the fund that DID pay cap gain distributions!
    Numbers don't lie.

    Bottom line:
    If a fund performs well, a capital gain distribution is going to occur, but receiving a cap gain distribution is a neutral event and nothing to get excited about. Something to get excited about? How about the VALUE of one’s investment increasing?
    A cap gain dist. Is simply receiving cash for gains that were taken in a fund. To keep your initial investment AND ITS GAINS invested, one simply BUYS new shares with the cash from the distribution. It’s the same as taking a profit in a stock. Sell a stock at a gain. Do you reinvest just your original investment principal or that amount PLUS the capital gain?
    Before 1986, funds were not compelled to make capital gains and the UNDERLYING HOLDINGS performed as they did just as is the case today with capital gains being distributed. There’s no magic!

HCBK
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