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Knightsbridge Shipping Limited Message Board

wrenn_leaming 19 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Apr 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Prudential Capital Loan

    by wrenn_leaming Aug 27, 2015 4:36 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming 23 hours ago Flag

    Hi ballman I did some number crunching and according to the last call they said they are getting $21 Million in grant funds from the ram project something about being able to count about $70 Million worth of cost from RAM, and then they will need another $160 million to finish the project"Pre Grant".

    So let's say for fun they score a government loan at 2.6% "BIG IF--- " but at the same time politics will decide how "BIG that if is " I.E-- Federal reserve interest rates rising or doing nothing""what party is elected" ---"who supports what incentives"--

    Now lets say they they pay down the 6.75% loan by using the $21 million received for RAM's post work on WGP project. That's 1.19 million in savings in interest and .875 in principle a year. that's about 2.065 million a year in savings, now they said they estimated 160 million to finish the project, 30% of that 160 million cost will become grants worth about $48 Million, that they then can use directly to pay down the loan related to the WGP project,

    Thus leaving a remaining balance of $112 Million to be financed, at a 2.6% fixed rate over the next 30 years that's about $2.912 Million a year in interest, and the first year principal payment will be about $2.4685 Million for a total cost of $5.3805Million, in order to just get the project going, but they will have the an additional savings of $2.065 million from paying down the previous loan. Thus placing the total financing cost every year near $3.31million for WGP.

    Now the next step, let's say they get the plant up and running and are producing 30 MW net, I believe it's NET?? let's say they keep the plant operating at the 90% mark" a conservative estimate"--correct me if im wrong----

    if we take the planed plant down time into consideration let's assume it will now be 88% of that 30MW that we will be expecting for our revenue generation, assuming this, lets say they produce about 231,264 MW hours a year 633.6 MW hours a day. With no PPA, they could/would be forced to sell directly to the wholesale market, "I used the NP15 northern california wholesale market,"--see IEA government site-- for where the weighted average came from for real numbers" using just this years numbers, so far, the average is about $37 a MW hour , and going all the way back to 09 using a weighted average average, we are looking near $38 "with a very low variance" that's $38 a MW hour that is a extremely conservative estimate here, with no PPA WGP could be bring in about $8.556 Million a year.

    Now if you're more optimistic let's say we get a deal at $120 a MW hour with a 2% increase a year, currently California Utilities will bill california customers at .24 Cents a kilowatt hour basically $240 a MW hour thats a large spread from producer to consumer of over a $120 I may be wrong but it seems likely that a large scale corporation would gladly pay .12 Cents a Kilowatt hour vs .24, the most likely targeted consumer would be a large scale database warehouse with a bunch of servers, who needs reliable power at a consistent rate. Hmmm so that would mean with our conservative estimate of power generation at 88% we would produce revenue near $27.751 Million so almost a 100% increase from our current revenue, now lets say they get the plant to operate at the 99% they have proven that they could do this at the other plants, and lets say a year or two of fine tuning ,ok 2 years go by ,we are now charging $124.84 because of that 2% price escalation and producing 99% of 30 MW hours with very little down time now revenue is $32.5 Million.

    So these are two examples the real question is what is the one that is most likely to occur and what is the PPA going to be for?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Prudential Capital Loan

    by wrenn_leaming Aug 27, 2015 4:36 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 29, 2015 12:18 AM Flag

    Thanks ballman !! Great Post !! I was thinking about the loan thing more, lets say hypothetically they get a PPA at WGP then they use the grant money from the "Pre" gyesers project, that RAM started, to pay off the exsisting loan balance the one that's 6.75%. Then cover the rest of the WGP project with goverment backed loans at the 2% range. You think that might be a posibility?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Prudential Capital Loan

    by wrenn_leaming Aug 27, 2015 4:36 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 27, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    So would it be better to pay off 2million at 6.75% or buyback shares ?

  • Reply to

    Still Strong

    by timbrgrt Aug 24, 2015 3:07 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 24, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    So True!! This Is the place to be !!! Oil goes down- cheaper drilling prices for Geothermal, Oil goes up-- higher PPA for alternative power sources like HTM. Win! Win!

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    What I think we will start to see in 3-4 years is that with the oil price so low companies are not investing in oil production or exploration actually creating a future shortage, I think of Oil price like a Rubberband / Spring affecting Supply and Demand.

    I'm just putting all the money I make off the VIX here for now,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 20, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    I second that!!

  • Reply to

    $100/Share?

    by robcurtis2011 Aug 14, 2015 4:26 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 18, 2015 10:08 PM Flag

    See it's not just one model and its not just one approach. Tell you what I'll show you and give you all the info but it's going to cost you 95$ or 100 shares when the price hits .85

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $100/Share?

    by robcurtis2011 Aug 14, 2015 4:26 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 18, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    That is in there too

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $100/Share?

    by robcurtis2011 Aug 14, 2015 4:26 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 14, 2015 5:33 PM Flag

    1 year $.85 year 5 $3.44 10th year $7.87 20 years later 18ish after a stock split, dividends will start in year 5 and maintain about a 4% yield on average after that.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 14, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    I want to see high 90s for a PPA at the gysers anything higher then that would be great did the previous owners have a PPA??

  • wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 10, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    This is a good looking Co

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A question about acquisitions

    by bp_mcavoy Aug 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 6, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Mcavoy I converted the data to Excel!!!! :D Victory Song!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A question about acquisitions

    by bp_mcavoy Aug 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 6, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    can you send it to me in excel??

  • Reply to

    A question about acquisitions

    by bp_mcavoy Aug 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 6, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    yeah that plant had some Big issues I think declining pressure or heat

  • Reply to

    A question about acquisitions

    by bp_mcavoy Aug 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 6, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    40 MW works
    I'm looking on the EIA. 66 seems so small

  • Reply to

    A question about acquisitions

    by bp_mcavoy Aug 6, 2015 9:45 AM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    AltaRock Ram Raser start there I'll do some digging let me know what you find

  • Reply to

    HTM is a safe haven.

    by allencrosejr Aug 3, 2015 3:26 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Aug 4, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    wait a minute... how did you know the turbine was Atlas Capco turbine ?? where did you find that info??
    & do you know what the other turbines are I'd like to know?
    Also did you know there was a turbine designed for WGP by the previous owners

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wrenn_leaming by wrenn_leaming Jul 27, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    Would some one be kind enough to provide me the highlights for this year
    Wondering where we are with WGP and the water well upgrade

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Top investors buiding positions.

    by allencrosejr Jul 20, 2015 12:21 PM
    wrenn_leaming wrenn_leaming Jul 27, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    How big was that position just buy more, I am ;)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • wrenn_leaming by wrenn_leaming Jun 3, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    Any news???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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