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Orbital Sciences Corp. Message Board

wright.tom64 188 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Aug 17, 2008
  • Reply to

    UK Ban on Fracking

    by wright.tom64 Jan 27, 2015 8:26 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 19 hours ago Flag

    No need to yell virtua ;-) I am well aware of the type of well that was drilled at Horse Hill and the type Celtique is applying to drill but the point I am making is that the Parliament, pressured by activists, has made it more difficult for any firm to engage in fracking from this point forward. I, as a shareholder in Magellan since the late 1980's, definitely want them to succeed but that success in the UK would be more likely without this ban on fracking. Drilling a new conventional well every time and going through the permit process every time is darned expensive.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Jan 27, 2015 8:26 PM Flag

    This is not a total ban on gas fracking but certainly will make it difficult for companies to do much of anything except conventional drilling in large areas of the UK. Fracking has been totally banned in national parks and areas of scenic beauty. By approaching the argument from a carbon footprint viewpoint the Parliament made fracking a much more difficult process in England as a number of environmental barriers must be passed to get approval.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Jan 27, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    If I get fewer OA shares than I had in ORB shares then the OA price needs to be higher to make up the loss in shares or this becomes a losing proposition at least in the short run. It is just that simple.

  • Reply to

    Ain't Democracy Fun....

    by mcrf52 Jan 26, 2015 3:14 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 27, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Do I detect a note of pessimism doc? Both stocks down a small amount at about 1% this morning but the whole market is getting smacked.

  • Reply to

    SpaceX and ORB Valuations

    by suborbital99 Jan 24, 2015 11:45 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 24, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Quite true. That would be the math on the surface of it. Fidelity and Google obviously think it is a good deal. By the same token, however, investors are valuing a money losing Tesla stock with a negative PE as if there were no competitors on the horizon. Not saying SpaceX isn't worth 10B, it may be worth more. But, we just do not know as there are a lot of assumptions going forward about what the company will succeed in doing. Nonetheless, that is the nature of these highly technical companies. Orbital, at one time, was selling for 50 and not doing nearly what it is now. Also sold for 4 in the not too distant past.

  • Reply to

    SpaceX and ORB Valuations

    by suborbital99 Jan 24, 2015 11:45 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 24, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    I am not sure how one comes up with the 10 billion value for SpaceX. SpaceX can sell an investment stake for whatever the market will bear just like any other company but until and IPO comes out and analysts can comb through all the figures it seems like we only have SpaceX's interpretation of their value. Maybe investors in an IPO would push the value higher. Maybe not. We certainly can assume that SpaceX (i.e. Musk) is not launching resupply to the ISS at a loss but does that profit cover the landing platform and building of engines etc etc.

  • Reply to

    Down 2.34 AH

    by wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 9:20 PM Flag

    Agree with what you have stated here totally doc. Well put. Hopefully overwhelmed and others can gain from what you have said especially the part about one's time horizon for investing.

  • wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    That makes sense.

  • Reply to

    Down 2.34 AH

    by wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    Not sure Congress can get that higher defense budget unless they are willing to bend on a couple things the President wants. The rapidly changing situation in the Middle East right now may alter that equation especially with the death of the leader of the house of Saud and newer, perhaps more radical, people gaining power.

  • Reply to

    Down 2.34 AH

    by wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    The 2600 share drop showed for a while and was verified by NYSE AH data and then one share sent it back up. Weird. Anyway, mcrf52 also thinks 35 is possible. Works for me but am not sure I will stay with the new company if I can get that price as I purchased my shares when ORB took that huge plunge a few years ago.

  • wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    It went back up to 29.97 on volume of one (1) share after that 2600 share dump. Honest to goodness, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this type of nonsense.

  • Reply to

    Down 2.34 AH

    by wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    2600 shares and it looks like it was all done in one trade. This why I said I felt like a mushroom in an earlier post. I suppose it could pop right back up on Monday.

  • wright.tom64 by wright.tom64 Jan 23, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    After being up about the same in regular trading. This is the kind of stuff that is driving me nuts about these shares.

  • I want to believe that the market is saying it will be near the top end of expectations given the current upward moves in both ATK and ORB. We will know very soon.

  • Reply to

    scenic river

    by avi.morax Jan 22, 2015 8:46 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 22, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Yet you responded didn't you? And once again, with an ad hominem attack instead of discussing the issue of the pipeline company's responsibility and the fact that I agree that the spill was not good. Please try to focus next time.

  • Reply to

    It's Almost Over,Tom

    by mcrf52 Jan 21, 2015 11:29 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 22, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Will probably be worth a lot in the long run but small shareholders like you and me will never get the sweetheart deals and can only hope that, if we invest, our judgment is valid. I am past the point of doing much more investing except in dividend payers as I must begin to draw down my IRA in about 18 months. Orbital was a stock I benefited from pretty handsomely in percentage terms but lordy have I ever taken some boneheaded gambles also that did not pay off ;-)

  • Reply to

    scenic river

    by avi.morax Jan 22, 2015 8:46 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 22, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    And that would truly be a guess. No one, not carson or virtua or babsie or myself, wants to have rivers on fire or be dying of asthma but we also do not want our families to suffer for an idealism that would send us back to a lifestyle of hippie communes of the 60's. This spill is absolutely not a good thing but it will get cleaned up and the effects will diminish and Bridger will be fined for the cleanup. The fine will probably not be enough to cover the cleanup and on that point debate can be had but being a denier of the need for oil and natural gas in our society is ridiculous and that is where many ultra environmentalists stand. BTW, how are you and avi doing when it comes to the toxic waste inherent in the computers you use or the batteries in the electric cars or other waste products of solar etc.?

  • Reply to

    It's Almost Over,Tom

    by mcrf52 Jan 21, 2015 11:29 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 22, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Not sure you would want to do that yet. Musk has talked about an IPO several times but has never gotten around to doing it and they spend huge amounts of money attempting to do what they do. If they can perfect the soft landing and reuse of the first stage I would not be surprised to see an IPO at that point.

  • Reply to

    It's Almost Over,Tom

    by mcrf52 Jan 21, 2015 11:29 AM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 22, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    It is interesting to note that ATK went from 158 to 100 and is now back to 125. If we get the spin off price of 60 then we are trading at about the right level today (26.70) and 65 would take us close to 29 on the spin off. A spin off at 55 would drop us to about 24.50. Over the next few days the price of ORB may give us a hint in advance of the spin off value so I am hoping we move through resistance and head towards 30 on ORB in the next week or so.

  • Reply to

    Researcher

    by prince_ashargin Jan 14, 2015 10:05 PM
    wright.tom64 wright.tom64 Jan 21, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    6 degrees of Kevin (phytoplankton) Bacon.

ORB
29.32-1.00(-3.30%)Jan 28 4:01 PMEST

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